XRP price traded near $1.34 on October 16, about 4% below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.36. The immediate test is whether buyers can reclaim and hold the average; until they do, the historical $3.20 comparison remains a scenario.
The comparison rests on XRP’s 2023 interaction with its long-term trend measure. In March that year, the token moved above a 200-day SMA near $0.40, then returned toward the broader moving-average zone in May, briefly slipped below it, and recovered.
Historical data places the May low near $0.42, while contemporaneous analysis treated $0.40 as the main support area. XRP subsequently reached $0.93 on July 13, a rise of about 134.5% from $0.40.
That sequence is useful as a technical precedent. The strongest leg of the 2023 rally followed the court ruling in the SEC’s case against Ripple, a separate catalyst that helped accelerate price beyond what the moving-average defense alone could explain.
Applying the same 134.5% gain to today’s cited SMA of $1.36 produces $3.20. From $1.31, that would require an advance of roughly 145%; it is a historical-repeat calculation.
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The distinction between a test and a reclaim matters. At roughly $1.33, XRP is below the 200-day SMA, so buyers would first need to push price above $1.37 and then defend that level on a pullback. A successful retest would offer evidence that the average has shifted from resistance to support.
If price cannot recover the average, the 2023 analogy loses force: a moving average acting as overhead resistance is not the same setup as one that buyers have reclaimed and defended. That leaves the immediate risk skewed toward further weakness before any larger recovery scenario becomes relevant.
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The required XRP price analysis therefore starts with the moving average, not an assumption of a rapid run to higher resistance. Separately, we have discussed $1.45 as a near-term resistance or confirmation level in another XRP outlook.
The two levels describe different steps in a possible recovery: first, XRP would need to reclaim and hold the cited $1.37 SMA; only then would higher resistance zones become relevant. A rejection below the average would keep the downside condition in place, while a defended retest would make the historical comparison more technically applicable.
For now, the near-term signal is the behavior around $1.37. The proportional $3.20 scenario remains conditional on that reclaim and support retest, while the 2025 peak near $3.66 provides a higher historical reference.
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