The 2-3 Dallas Cowboys are taking on the 3-2 Green Bay Packers. Dallas has a +2-point differential, despite the losing record, while the Packers boast a -8 point differential, despite the winning record.
The Green Bay Packers enter this game sixth overall in total EPA defensively. But they are 18th overall in success rate. The offenses they’ve faced have been underwhelming: The Vikings, Jets, and the Falcons/Bucs/Bears without their starting quarterback.
The Cowboys offense has faced the Giants, Commanders, Ravens, Texans, and Bucs. They are still in the top seven in both EPA and success rate. I think Dak Prescott has a field day and the Cowboys bounce back at Lambeau Field after an embarrassing loss to a rookie quarterback a week ago. Plus, there should be a bit of a comedown from the Packers after taking it out on their rivals last week.
Dallas is dreadful defensively. They are by far the worst defense in the league from a total EPA perspective, and have also allowed a league-high 50% success rate. Jordan Love should connect on plenty of his patented fadeaway throws to Christian Watson and Matthew Golden.
Cowboys 38, Packers 34.