13 crore names struck off, only 70 lakh were unexplained: Surjit Bhalla's SIR math

Economist Surjit Bhalla estimates that around 70 lakh eligible voters may have been removed without explanation during the SIR, while arguing that most of the 13.37 crore draft-stage deletions were justified, as they included names of deceased voters, people who had relocated, duplicate entries and untraceable voters.

Surjit Bhalla distinguishes total deletions from eligible voters potentially wrongly excluded in his analysis, without dismissing concerns over wrongful removals.

The debate over the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls has largely revolved around the staggering figure of 13 crore names removed. But how many of those deletions actually involved eligible voters who should have remained on the rolls?

Economist Surjit Bhalla has attempted to answer that question by looking beyond the headline figure. In a blog published on Saturday, he estimates that around 70 lakh eligible voters may have been removed without explanation in states where the revision process has been completed.

In an analysis published on Saturday, Bhalla argues that the 13 crore figure counts draft-stage deletions across all three phases of the SIR, including names removed for legitimate reasons such as death, relocation and duplication. It also includes states where final electoral rolls have not yet been published.

His calculation, based on population estimates, official birth and death data, and the Election Commission’s pre-SIR voter registration figures, puts the number of potentially unexplained deletions at around 70 lakh, significantly lower than the figure dominating the political debate.

“‘Unexplained’ is not proof that every one of the 7 million was removed wrongly, and it is not small to the people concerned,” Bhalla wrote. “But it is less than one adult in a hundred, not the one in seven implied by the headlines.”

Bhalla’s analysis does not dismiss concerns over wrongful deletions. Instead, it attempts to distinguish the total number of names removed during the exercise from the number of eligible voters who may have been left off the final rolls.

WHY THE 13-CRORE FIGURE NEEDS CONTEXT

The Election Commission reported that 13.37 crore names were removed from draft electoral rolls across the three phases of the SIR. Of these, 7.22 crore were from Bihar and the 12 states and Union Territories covered in Phase II, while 6.15 crore were from the 17 states in Phase III.

Bhalla pointed out that these deletions were recorded before claims and appeals were heard. According to data cited by Reuters, they included 2.8 crore names of deceased voters, 6.3 crore people who had relocated, one crore duplicate entries and three crore people who could not be traced.

Bhalla argues that these categories cannot automatically be treated as wrongful exclusions. The central question, he says, is how many eligible voters remain missing after accounting for people who should not have been on the rolls in the first place.

HOW BHALLA CALCULATED THE SHORTFALL

Bhalla begins with an estimate of India's adult population at 100.8 crore in mid-2026. However, he argues that a complete electoral roll should not be expected to contain every adult, since voter registration is voluntary and some people never enrol.

Drawing on the Election Commission's pre-SIR registration data for people aged 18-29, he estimates that 7.5 per cent of adults are unregistered.

Allowing for a further 1 per cent among older adults, he puts the overall non-registration rate at around 8.5 per cent.

This brings his benchmark for a clean electoral roll to approximately 92.2 crore names.

He then applies this method state by state, using population estimates and voter registration data to account for differences in registration rates.

Across nine large states with final SIR rolls, he estimates that a clean roll should contain 53.51 crore names, compared with 52.78 crore on the final rolls, a shortfall of approximately 73 lakh.

After allowing for an estimated five lakh non-citizens legitimately removed, Bhalla arrives at around 70 lakh eligible voters whose removal remains unexplained.

The estimate is based on data available up to October 16, 2026, and is his own calculation, not an official Election Commission count.

“Seven of every eight removals were justified,” he wrote, estimating that around 5.1 crore of the 5.8 crore net deletions in states with final rolls were necessary, leaving 70 lakh unexplained. He cautioned, however, that the unexplained figure does not establish that every affected voter was removed wrongly.

INDIA'S ELECTORAL ROLLS HAVE NEVER BEEN PERFECT

Bhalla places the current controversy against the historical accuracy of electoral rolls, arguing that some mismatch between voter lists and the eligible population is not new.

He points out that after the last nationwide intensive revision, the 2004 electoral roll contained 2.8 crore more names than the estimated adult population, an excess of 4.4 per cent.

In 2014, the roll was 3.1 per cent higher than the adult population.

“There was no controversy, and no allegation that the ECI had doctored the rolls,” he wrote, noting that the Congress, then in opposition, went on to win the 2004 general election.

Compiling a list covering nearly a billion people through door-to-door verification, Bhalla argues, is inherently difficult, particularly in a country with a large population of poor and migrant workers.

However, he does not dismiss concerns over the way the SIR was conducted. He acknowledges criticism over the speed of the exercise, the documentation demanded of poor and migrant voters, and notices issued over so-called “logical discrepancies”.

He also flags the Election Commission's introduction of a compulsory declaration on Form 6 for new voter registrations. The form asks applicants whether they, their parents or grandparents appeared on an earlier SIR roll.

The legality of this change remains unresolved, with the Supreme Court having questioned whether the modified form had been approved.

BENGAL, BIHAR EMERGE AS BIG EXCEPTIONS

While Bhalla's national estimate points to a relatively small share of unexplained deletions, his state-level analysis identifies West Bengal as a significant exception.

He estimates that around 50 lakh eligible voters may have been removed without explanation in the state, equivalent to around 6-7 per cent of its adult population.

West Bengal's electoral roll fell from 7.66 crore names to 6.77 crore, a decline of 11.6 per cent. Bhalla estimates that a clean roll for the state should contain around 7.33 crore names, suggesting that approximately 56 lakh more names were removed than necessary.

He puts the likely number of eligible voters removed without explanation between 40 lakh and 60 lakh, while acknowledging uncertainty in the calculation.

The deletions also raise questions about the adjudication process. Of the 60 lakh voters flagged for “logical discrepancies”, judicial officers struck off 27 lakh names in April 2026. Muslims accounted for around two-thirds of these adjudication-stage deletions, Bhalla says.

The Election Commission told the Supreme Court in September that 22.2 lakh appeals had been filed seeking restoration of deleted names. Around 93 per cent of the appeals decided so far found the voters eligible, according to Bhalla's account.

However, only 1.3 lakh appeals had been decided at the time of his analysis. Bhalla therefore treats the figures as an indication of potential wrongful exclusions, rather than conclusive proof.

Bihar, where the SIR controversy first gathered momentum, presents a different picture. Bhalla estimates that the state's final roll still contains around 60 lakh more names than a clean roll would.

He attributes much of the surplus to migrant workers who live and work in other states but remain registered in Bihar.

Bhalla sums up his assessment with the words, “The roll needed cleaning”. While he argues that most deletions were necessary, he also points to the clumsy handling of the exercise, leaving questions over the names that remain unexplained and the voters behind them.

- Ends