Ukraine is in dire need of a ceasefire after the grim escalation in Russian strikes on its civilians over the past few months. But it is highly unlikely to submit to a ceasefire on punitive terms. And Donald Trump is in no position to force it to accept such a deal.
The US president desperately wants a ceasefire before Americans cast their votes at the midterm elections on November 3, given he has blamed the European war for pushing up the cost of diesel.
He even claims to have an energy truce agreement from both sides. As usual with this president, he is announcing a deal in the hope it happens.
It is a tired trick. It is unlikely to work. Instead, it is more likely to confirm Trump as the president of pretence.
For a ceasefire to matter, it needs to stick. Unfortunately, Russian President Vladimir Putin shows no sign of accepting an outcome that means halting his attacks on Ukrainian civilians. His recent decisions have increased casualties with deadlier strikes.
More than 150 people were killed and 700 injured by Russian drones, glide bombs and missiles over the past week, so there is a desperate need to stop the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says he is open to a truce. Putin chooses instead to intensify the war.
The instant proof of this was the fact that Russian attacks continued in the hours after Trump proclaimed an immediate energy ceasefire. One of the strikes, according to Ukrainian reports, was on a thermal power station.
Trump is frequently incoherent in his public pronouncements. In his actions, however, he is consistent in favouring Putin.
The US has continued some of the funding for Ukraine that was committed under the previous president, Joe Biden. It has also kept shipping some weapons to Ukraine. (Biden also placed limits on what Ukraine could do with weapons.)
Trump, however, has scaled back practical help on every level. There has been no new package of support under his administration, according to an analysis at the Council on Foreign Relations.
While some American weapons are still sent to Ukraine, this happens because European nations pay for them. And the missiles Ukraine needs most, the Patriot interceptors that can shoot down Russian missiles, are being withheld.
On another front, Trump and his tech ally, Elon Musk, have turned down Ukrainian requests to use the Starlink satellite network for strikes inside Russia. The overall impact is to limit Ukraine’s capacity to go on the offensive to stop Russian attacks on civilian targets.
There are times when Trump seems to offer support, but wavers before anything concrete happens – such as the idea of allowing Ukraine to make its own Patriot interceptors. He likes having leverage over Zelensky by holding out the promise of help.
At the most basic level, however, Trump has always talked as if the war could be ended by giving Putin what he wants.
In this scenario, Putin would take formal control of the Donbas region and gain some additional territory in the “fortress belt” in the east. This would leave Ukraine vulnerable to future Russian attacks without NATO membership, or a robust security guarantee, as a protection. It would leave a weakened Ukraine to be dominated by the Kremlin, as it was before the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
Trump kept to his pattern with his latest move. He announced a deal with Putin that he said would allow Russian diesel to flow into world markets and lower prices for American motorists. This helps Moscow generate more revenue to pay for its war.
The deal will make little difference to American consumers: in theory, it releases 800,000 tons of diesel (about 725,000 tonnes) in October and November, with more to come later. This is enough to meet just two days’ worth of demand over those two months, given the US transport sector uses about 436,000 tons of diesel every day.
For Trump, it is all about selling the (false) hope that he can cut the cost of fuel. That cost, of course, has soared due to his war with Iran. Worried about the midterms, he has betrayed Kyiv for a paltry amount of oil.
European leaders have backed Zelensky with public comments over the past few days, but none have gone after Trump personally for doing a deal with Putin. They avoid a public brawl, even when Trump is proving (again) that NATO allies cannot trust him.
Zelensky is diplomatic about Trump’s claim of a ceasefire, but he has no reason to rely on Trump for security.
The Ukrainian leader has kept up the attacks on Russian oil refineries at the very time the US president has been calling on him to stop. And the attacks are working: Reuters reported last month that half of Russia’s top diesel refineries cut output after drone strikes.
So what if American voters blame the Republicans at the midterms for the high price of fuel? Behind all the bluster, Zelensky has emerged with leverage over Trump. If the result is a US election result that produces a Congress that is more inclined to check the power of the president, Kyiv will be comfortable with that outcome.
This does not mean Ukraine is winning. Civilians are suffering relentless attacks from jet-powered drones and ballistic missiles in numbers that make them very hard to stop.
If this keeps up, there will be devastating damage to power stations when winter arrives. It is not alarmist to worry about a humanitarian crisis for people without heating or cooking.
While Ukraine can respond to the attacks on civilians by sending long-range drones to cripple Russian oil refineries, this does not save families in the apartment buildings of Kyiv and other cities. Especially when Trump steps in to help Putin and ease the economic pressure on the Kremlin.
Ukraine has refused Putin’s demands for territory over more than four years of war. Zelensky shows no sign of changing this stance.
An election could put this to the test, and might in theory install a government that signs away the Donbas, but the practical steps towards an election are yet to be met. Zelensky says he is willing to hold an election if there is a ceasefire; Putin shows no sign of wanting one.
For now, the Trump ceasefire is a mirage. He pretended he had a deal, only to be found out when Putin declined to commit.
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