▲ AI PRISM* Personalized Economic Briefing
* Editor's note: AI PRISM (Personalized Report & Insight Summarizing Media) is an artificial intelligence-based personalized news recommendation and summary service developed with support from the Korea Press Foundation. It selects and provides six news items tailored to each reader type.
[Key Issue Briefing]
■ KOSPI rebounds for second straight session, selective investment strategy still valid: The KOSPI, which had fallen for seven consecutive trading sessions, closed at 5,768.01 on the 19th, up 99.96 points, or 1.76%, marking a second straight day of gains. With Big Tech earnings reports and the direction of foreign investor flows capable of renewing downward pressure, analysts said investors should maintain holdings in quality stocks backed by earnings while monitoring market conditions.
■ AI growth accelerates, chip investment broadens to materials, parts and equipment: NH-Amundi Asset Management said it would shift part of its weighting in Samsung Electronics (005930) and SK hynix (000660) to semiconductor materials, parts and equipment companies, judging that the AI industry has entered a full-fledged growth phase. Earnings estimates for the two companies have stalled for two consecutive months, while front-end equipment investment is expected to expand next year, making the supplier and substrate sectors a new source of returns.
■ Neocloud turbulence spreads cracks through AI infrastructure financing: Rising interest rates and deteriorating bond markets have delayed or canceled more than 47 AI data center projects in the U.S., while CoreWeave's share price plunged 23.6% last week alone. Anthropic is reportedly considering terminating a $45 billion contract with British neocloud provider Nscale, bringing the possibility of a broader realignment across the AI supply chain to the surface.
[News of Interest to Stock Investors]
1. Hold Off Rather Than Rush to Sell Chips: Split Holdings 50-50 Between Stocks and Safe Assets
Key summary: The KOSPI closed at 5,768.01, up 99.96 points, or 1.76%, from the previous session, breaking a seven-session losing streak. Analysts stressed maintaining existing weightings rather than selling hastily, noting that earnings outlooks for chipmakers remain solid and that the short-term plunge has lowered valuation pressure. For investors with a neutral risk profile, a diversified portfolio of 50% stocks, 25% bonds, 20% cash and 5% gold was suggested. Stability in long-term U.S. interest rates, improvement in AI companies' revenue and cash flow, and whether next year's chip earnings outlook holds were cited as key indicators for gauging when to shift to buying.
2. NH-Amundi: Shifting Weighting From Large-Cap Chipmakers to Suppliers
Key summary: NH-Amundi Asset Management said at a briefing marking the first anniversary of its Growth-Led Korea Fund that it would move part of its weighting in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix to semiconductor materials, parts and equipment companies. As of the 14th of this month, the fund's return since inception was 84.86%, outperforming the KOSPI's gain by 17.23 percentage points, with about 80% of the excess performance coming from semiconductors and IT hardware. With earnings estimates for the two companies stalled for two straight months and front-end equipment investment expected to expand next year, the firm proposed a strategy of shifting weighting toward suppliers and substrate makers. A forecast that combined shareholder returns at Samsung Electronics and SK hynix could reach 300 trillion won next year was also cited as grounds for a reappraisal of the Korean stock market.
3. 47 AI Data Center Projects Delayed or Scrapped as Funding Dries Up
Key summary: More than 47 large AI data center projects have been delayed or canceled in the U.S. so far this year, and investment bank Bernstein estimated that only 35% of planned projects are viable. CoreWeave's share price plunged 23.6% last week alone, and Anthropic is reportedly weighing termination of a $45 billion contract with British neocloud provider Nscale. A Columbia Business School professor estimated AI infrastructure spending would reach $10.3 trillion between 2025 and 2032, while warning that a mere 10% drop in cash flow could wipe out equity value. Industry observers forecast that the current several hundred neocloud providers will be consolidated into seven to 10 firms.
[Reference News for Stock Investors]
4. Won Strengthens Alone Despite Strong Dollar, Exchange Rate in 1,330 Won Range
Key summary: Despite dollar strength, the won-dollar exchange rate fell to 1,330.3 won, its lowest level in two years since October 2024. The current account surplus for January through August this year reached $279.2 billion, roughly four times the figure for the same period last year, establishing a pattern in which strong chip exports offset upward pressure from the dollar. The won-yen cross rate fell to 839.76 won per 100 yen, a new low since January 2008. Analysts warned that if foreign investors continue selling Korean stocks, dollar demand could rise and renew upward pressure on the exchange rate.
5. Controversy Over National Pension Rebalancing Puts Spotlight on Japan's GPIF 10-Year Record
Key summary: As controversy over the National Pension Fund Management Committee's decision to suspend rebalancing and raise its domestic equity weighting reignited around the parliamentary audit, experts suggested looking to Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund as a reference. The GPIF raised its domestic equity weighting from 12% to 25% in 2014 and went on to post a record return of 22.67% in 2023. As of the end of July, the National Pension Service's accumulated reserves stood at 1,684.2 trillion won, with a cumulative return of 14.84% since the start of the year. Experts said that because long-term investing is the core principle for pension funds, future investment capability rather than short-term flow disputes will determine success or failure.
6. BYD Overtakes Korea's Three Midsize Automakers in Sales
Key summary: Chinese electric vehicle brand BYD sold 20,137 units in Korea from January through September this year, lifting its share of the imported car market from 2.0% to 7.2%. Although BYD was excluded from government subsidies starting in July, it filled the gap with its own support programs and outsold KG Mobility, Renault Korea and GM Korea for three consecutive months beginning in July. With Chinese brands including Zeekr, Xpeng and Chery preparing successive launches in Korea, Chinese EVs are expected to penetrate the market even faster. Experts pointed to a policy environment in which tariffs stand at just 8% and EVs are excluded from domestic production tax credits, saying defensive measures are effectively lacking.
