BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Sunday, 25 October, 1:43 p.m. ET · Source: Poder360 (a Brazilian political news site), Metrópoles (a Brasília news outlet), Folha de S.Paulo (a São Paulo daily)
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, holds its presidential runoff today between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of a former president.
- What happened Lula’s campaign says it will ask the electoral court (TSE) to extend voting after reports of bus cuts.
- The claims The campaign says São Paulo runs 60% of its buses, and Salvador kept at least 75 buses in garages.
- Still open The TSE had not ruled when we published, and officials dispute why buses were late.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket, a prediction market, gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 81.8% chance of winning today’s runoff (25 October, 1:43 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 83% and Kalshi at 81% (Lula: 18% and 20%), as of 25 October, 1:40 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Lula’s presidential campaign said on Sunday it will ask Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the country’s top election authority, to keep polling stations open past 4 p.m. ET (5 p.m. in Brasília). Poder360 reported the announcement at 1:36 p.m. ET (2:36 p.m. in Brasília), during the Brazil election 2026 runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 51.0%, Lula 49.0%
45 national polls from 21 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
Marco Aurélio de Carvalho, a lawyer who coordinates Lula’s legal team, said voters in São Paulo and Salvador faced long waits because of reduced bus services. As of publication, no ruling on the request had been reported.
What the Lula Campaign Is Asking For
Carvalho spoke to reporters outside Lula’s home in western São Paulo and said the party expects the full TSE bench to meet urgently, Poder360 reported. “We will ask, yes, for the hours to be extended so that everyone can vote,” he said.
Earlier, Lula’s party federation, which groups the Workers’ Party (PT) with two allies, filed a request to extend voting until 6 p.m. ET (7 p.m. in Brasília) in Salvador, Feira de Santana and Lauro de Freitas, Metrópoles reported. As of 1:28 p.m. ET, TSE president Kássio Nunes Marques had not yet analysed it, the outlet said.
Bus Cuts in São Paulo
The campaign told São Paulo’s 1st Electoral Zone that buses were running with only 60% of the fleet, despite a court order for full service, Folha de S.Paulo reported. Carvalho said some voters had waited “more than an hour, an hour and a half” for a bus on a Sunday, according to Poder360.
São Paulo’s city hall said it told all bus companies on Saturday to run weekday schedules with at least a 10% reserve, after an order from the regional electoral court (TRE-SP), Poder360 reported. The campaign’s filing also asks for the arrest of the city’s mobility secretary and the president of SPTrans, the city’s bus agency, which are allegations, not findings.
The Dispute in Salvador
In Salvador, the capital of Bahia state, at least 75 public buses were kept from leaving their garages on Sunday, Poder360 reported. The city’s mobility department said the stop followed a dispute over Lula stickers that union members had put on the vehicles.
Mayor Bruno Reis, of the União Brasil party, said buses of one operator only began running after stickers with the number 13, Lula’s ballot number, were removed. He called the situation an electoral crime, while the mobility department says it has ordered all buses released.
Bahia’s regional electoral court (TRE-BA), led by Mauricio Kertzman Szporer, ordered the full fleet restored immediately, with a fine of R$1 million (about US$200,000 at 4.97 reais per dollar) per hour for non-compliance, according to Poder360. Folha reported that the same court ordered the arrest of mobility secretary Pablo Souza.
What It Means for US Readers
A dispute over turnout in a close runoff can sharpen market nerves and fuel claims about the legitimacy of the result. Brazil’s currency and stocks, and US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, can react to such uncertainty.
For anyone following US relations with Latin America’s largest economy, the TSE’s answer will be a test of how the court handles pressure on election day. Our guide to the Brazil runoff date explains when results are due.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro an 81.8% chance of winning today’s runoff and Lula 18.5% (25 October, 1:43 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has seen about US$198.8 million in bets, and our Brazil election odds page tracks both Polymarket and Kalshi, an prediction market regulated in the US by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 82.5% · Lula 17.5% (US$199 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 81% · Lula 20%
As of 25 October, 1:40 pm ET (17:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The TSE has not said whether it will extend voting, or whether any extension would cover only parts of Bahia or also São Paulo. It is also unclear how many voters were kept from the polls, and no court has tested the claims about the bus fleets.
Accounts of why buses were late differ between the campaign, city officials and the courts. We have not independently verified any of them.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does Lula’s campaign want longer voting hours?
It says bus cuts in São Paulo and Salvador kept people from reaching polling stations. Officials dispute why the buses were late.
When do polls close in Brazil?
Voting is scheduled to end at 5 p.m. in Brasília, which is 4 p.m. ET. The TSE had not changed that when we published.
Who decides whether voting is extended?
The Superior Electoral Court (TSE), led by Kássio Nunes Marques, receives national requests, while regional electoral courts handle local orders, such as the one in Bahia.
What did the Bahia court order?
It ordered Salvador’s full bus fleet restored at once, with a fine of R$1 million (about US$200,000) per hour. Folha also reported an arrest order for the city’s mobility secretary.
Who leads the prediction markets?
Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro 81.8% and Lula 18.5% (25 October, 1:43 p.m. ET). These are bets, not polls.
Sources: Poder360, 25 October 2026; Metrópoles, 25 October 2026; Folha de S.Paulo (Mônica Bergamo column), 25 October 2026; O Povo (a Fortaleza daily), 25 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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