Bitcoin keeps running into the same wall near $87,000. According to new on-chain research from Glassnode, that wall is built largely by people who bought BTC in late 2025.
Where the resistance comes from
Glassnode’s analysis places a dense resistance zone between roughly $87K and $88K. That range reflects the average cost basis of holders who bought from late 2025 into early 2026.
Glassnode puts the average cost basis for 6-12 month holders at approximately $88K. When price approaches that level, underwater buyers suddenly see a chance to break even, and many take it.
The research narrows the tightest band of resistance to the $87K–$87.8K range. Bitcoin has tested the broader $87K–$88K area multiple times and failed to hold above it, a pattern consistent with steady selling from this cohort.
There is a second layer of overhead supply as well. Holders in the 1-2 year bracket carry a cost basis near $100K, which adds more potential sellers further up the ladder.
Stuck in the middle
Recent trading has kept Bitcoin boxed in between $82K and $84K. Glassnode’s data describe thin volumes and mixed flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs during this stretch.
Glassnode notes that older holders are showing reduced selling pressure. The result is a consolidation phase: long-term holders are largely sitting tight while recent buyers keep capping the upside.
The floor beneath the ceiling
Glassnode identifies two support levels below current prices.
The first is the cost basis of US spot ETF holders, at approximately $81.5K. If price slips beneath it, those holders move into the red, which can change their behavior quickly.
The second support is what Glassnode calls the True Market Mean, which it places between $77.5K and $78K. This metric is designed to estimate the average acquisition price of coins actively participating in the market, filtering out supply that is lost or dormant.
What a breakout could look like
Glassnode’s research suggests a decisive move above the $87K–$88K band could trigger heightened volatility. The analysis flags another supply cluster around $90K, which means bulls would likely face fresh selling shortly after any breakout.
Beyond that, the 1-2 year holders with a cost basis near $100K represent yet another group that may be eager to exit at break-even.
What this means for traders and investors
Bitcoin is trading between a ceiling around $87K–$88K and floors near $81.5K and $77.5K–$78K, with recent price action sitting closer to the lower half of that range.
Mixed flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs suggest institutional demand is not currently strong enough to overpower the selling coming from recent buyers. If flows weaken and price drifts toward the $81.5K ETF cost basis, the market will get a real-time look at how committed those holders are.
A breakout could bring a burst of volatility, only for price to stall again near $90K. A breakdown below the ETF cost basis would put the True Market Mean range of $77.5K–$78K in focus, and a loss of that zone would mark a more significant deterioration in on-chain structure.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.