Former Finance Minister Dr Mohammed Amin Adam has warned that Ghana’s recent debt relief remains vulnerable to exchange-rate movements, commodity-price shocks and weaker economic growth, despite improvements in the country’s reported debt position.
His analysis found that the cedi’s appreciation in 2025 reduced the cedi value of external debt by GH¢125.3 billion without any change in the contractual foreign-currency principal.
However, between January and July 2026, external debt declined by about US$600 million in dollar terms but increased by GH¢14.8 billion when measured in cedis.
The provisional debt database also implied that the exchange rate weakened by about 6% between January and July 2026, following the cedi’s 40.7% appreciation in 2025.
Dr Amin Adam said these movements demonstrated how currency changes could affect reported debt figures even when the underlying foreign-currency obligations remained unchanged.
“A larger reversal in the exchange rate, weaker commodity prices, or slower growth could quickly raise the debt ratio and debt-service burden,” he wrote.
He argued that sustainable debt improvement required more than favourable exchange-rate movements and high gold prices.
It also depended on durable primary surpluses, reliable revenue collection, disciplined expenditure commitments and financing at maturities and yields the state could afford.
He called for debt statistics to distinguish clearly between new borrowing, valuation effects, arrears recognition and reclassification to give policymakers and the public a more accurate picture of the country’s fiscal position.