ODM faces uncertain future nearly a year after Raila Odinga’s death

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party has been navigating turbulent waters since the death of its founding leader, the late Raila Odinga, nearly a year ago.

In that time, internal divisions have deepened, with the party cracking the whip against members who defied its position to support President William Ruto’s government. Now, in a potentially historic departure, ODM has signalled it may not field a presidential candidate for the first time in its 21-year history.

It was a split that seemed inevitable following the death of ODM’s founding leader, the late Raila Amollo Odinga.

Just four months after Raila’s death, Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna emerged as the first major casualty, as ODM’s top brass cracked the whip against members who defied the party line to support President William Ruto’s broad-based government.

Catherine Omanyo, ODM secretary general, announced the decision, saying, “Having deliberated on matters relating to the conduct of the secretary general Edwin Sifuna, the NEC resolved to remove him from office with immediate effect in accordance with the party constitution and applicable laws.”

Some of the casualties, led by former secretary general Edwin Sifuna, have since regrouped under the Linda Mwananchi banner, gaining momentum and capturing the country’s attention.

Sifuna, who leads the Equitable Party, said he had kept his promise to Raila not to destroy the party, blaming President Ruto for interfering in ODM’s affairs following the former prime minister’s death.

“I want Baba to know wherever he is that I kept my word that I would not be the one to wreck his party. I think the only person to blame is President Ruto. He got into the affairs of ODM after Mzee died, and I have no doubt that all the decisions taken by the leadership of ODM have been under his instruction,” Sifuna said.

In just a year, several former ODM members have found new political homes, including Sifuna’s Equitable Party, which is now rebranding as the Linda Mwananchi movement; Babu Owino’s Mwananchi Party; Caleb Amisi’s People’s Renaissance Movement; and Dhadho Godhana’s Federal Party of Kenya. Siaya Governor James Orengo has also been linked to the Liberal Party of Kenya.

Federal Party of Kenya leader Dhadho Godhana said ODM would survive the divisions but warned that the party had already suffered significant damage.

“I think ODM will survive as a party, but with a lot of injuries. When Jesus died, the disciples and many other people divided pieces of his clothes. So, when Baba died, people are trying to pick any piece of cloth that he has left,” Godhana said.

However, ODM’s top brass insists the party remains firm despite the turbulence.

Party chairperson Gladys Wanga compared the divisions to the aftermath of the fall of a large tree that had provided shelter and sustenance to many.

“As is expected when you lose a leader of Raila’s stature, it is related to the fall of a big tree that has many birds, many nests, many animals, some that you don’t even notice. Some are insects, they are all feeding from that tree somewhere," Wanga stated. 

"And then one day, without notice, the tree falls. Birds will start to fly, insects will start to crawl. You will not expect this to remain the same. But the party has remained firm."

For the first time in its 21-year history, ODM says it will not field a presidential candidate in the 2027 General Election, instead seeking a 50-50 power-sharing deal with Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance.

Speaking on July 31, 2026, ODM party leader Dr Oburu Oginga said the party would support Ruto’s presidential bid while negotiating for other positions.

“Kura ikikuja, wakati huu, sisi kama ODM hatutakuwa na candidate. Candidate wetu ni President William Ruto, but all the other positions are negotiable,” Oginga said.

ODM deputy party leader Simba Arati reinforced the position, insisting that the party must secure an equal share of power in the next government.

“In the 2027 government, we as ODM must get a half share together with Honourable Ruto. ODM and UDA will go 50/50. There is no shortcut about it,” Arati said.

Despite their differences, both sides agree that next year’s election will be the ultimate test of ODM’s future.

Sifuna said the electorate would ultimately determine whether ODM retained its political relevance after the August 10, 2027, election.

“When we wake up after the election of August 10th, that controversy will have been settled by the people themselves. This movement has always been a people’s movement. If the people are still desirous of the ODM party, they will do it,” he said.

Wanga, however, maintained that the party’s electoral performance, rather than the departure of individual leaders, would determine its strength.

“When you want to know that people are leaving, check their leaders. When you see people are put, including those in Western, they are all put all on ODM. Whether you are influential or not is after the election. Let me give you an example. We have had several by-elections in between. The seats that ODM held, we retained,” she said.