One of the most extraordinary features of the current Israeli election campaign is just how little Israeli politics has changed. We have largely the same characters, the same policy discussions and the same break-up of the vote in terms of right, center and left as was the case four years ago.
Imagine. Israel suffered one of the worst attacks and security failures in its history on Oct. 7, 2023. Following that, it embarked on a genocide and doubled down on its regime of apartheid in the West Bank. It has engaged Iran in multiple stages of an ongoing war, invaded Lebanon, occupied yet more of Syria and exchanged attacks with the Houthis in Yemen.
Yet, after all that, Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud may still get more seats than any other party at about 24, even if that would be a drop from the 32 it won at the 2022 election. The right-wing parties will gobble up more than 70 of the Knesset’s 120 seats if you include the parties of Avigdor Liberman and Naftali Bennett, both of whom are settlers themselves. The Israeli center is a pale shadow of what it once was and the left barely exists. Yair Golan’s Democrats may get about nine seats. The once-great Israeli Labor Party was long ago read its last rites.
Israeli politics is still very much to the right. Some 60 percent of the population self-identify as right-wing, 20 percent left-wing and about the same centrist. This has been the case for much of this century. The sea change in Israeli politics did not happen in 2023 but back in 2000 with the Second Intifada and in 2005 with the disengagement from Gaza.
Right-wing parties will gobble up more than 70 of the Knesset’s 120 seats if you include those of Liberman and Bennett
Chris Doyle
The leading actors in this electoral race are much the same too. Netanyahu has been at the top of the Israeli system since the mid-1990s. At times, he seems immovable despite being embroiled in a prolonged legal wrangle over alleged corruption. Such accusations would have sunk any other Israeli politician. Liberman has led his party since 1999. Bennett has been a leading figure since about 2013. Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich still have their own parties.
The new entrant for 2026 is Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar. But here too, history repeats itself. In searching for an alternative to Netanyahu as Israel’s “Mr. Security,” Israeli parties in the center scour the military retirees for candidates who can take him on. Eisenkot is a former Israeli military chief of staff, just like Gabi Ashkenazi, Benny Gantz and others. Typically, and this is also the case with Eisenkot, these ex-military leaders have simply struggled to match Netanyahu’s well-honed political survival skills.
But Eisenkot is also indicative of another unchangeable factor in Israeli elections: the policies remain much the same, particularly when it comes to the Palestinians. Few differences exist on this front or, for that matter, on Lebanon or Iran. The differences often revolve around whether to hold a proper investigation into the Oct. 7 failures, judicial independence and whether the ultra-Orthodox have to do national service. Eisenkot would not really represent a huge shift. After all, he was part of Netanyahu’s war Cabinet for the first eight months of the genocide in Gaza.
Aside from the Democrats, none of the main parties backs a two-state solution or the establishment of a Palestinian state. None are running on a platform of reopening negotiations with the Palestinian national leadership. All consider Jerusalem to be the eternal, undivided capital of Israel. The consensus is that the Jordan Valley must remain under permanent Israel control. None advocate for a full or even a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
These ex-military leaders have simply struggled to match Netanyahu’s well-honed political survival skills
Chris Doyle
All are pro-settlements and only vary according to intensity. Several of these mainstream parties backed the banning of the Palestinian parties before the elections — a decision that was only overturned by the Supreme Court. About 70 percent of Israelis oppose the involvement of a Palestinian party in any future Israeli coalition.
As for the Palestinian parties, they are, in many ways, the peace bloc within Israel now. A vote for them would at least offer a radical change. They support negotiations on the whole and tend to back two states, certainly not the existing one-state reality. They can also play kingmakers but only if allowed to. They may win somewhere between 12 and 15 Knesset seats depending on voter turnout. At minimum, the two Palestinian lists are likely to prevent any single bloc achieving the magic number of 61 seats in the Knesset.
Israelis will therefore quite possibly wake up on Oct. 28 with the votes counted but no idea as to who will form the next government. Yet, at the same time, the personnel and the policies will be remarkably consistent and familiar.
Despite all the extraordinary events, wars and disasters of the last few years, Israeli politics will not undergo any form of genuine course correction this month. Jewish Israeli voters seem content to head in the same disastrous direction they were heading during the years before 2023. The pilot may or may not change but the navigation system is locked in on further escalation and conflict.
Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech
Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Understanding (CAABU). He has worked with the council since 1993 after graduating with a first class honors degree in Arabic and Islamic Studies at Exeter University. He has organized and accompanied numerous British parliamentary delegations to Arab countries. Twitter: @Doylech