The Montreal Canadiens are off to a relatively underwhelming start, posting a 3-3-1 record through the first seven games of the season.
To better understand how this compares to last season’s start, we will examine a few key statistics to identify which areas of their game have improved and where the main concerns remain. Note that this article compares only the first seven games of each season, not the full campaign.
The Good
From a statistical standpoint, the Habs are doing a much better job controlling the play at 5v5, particularly in shots, scoring chances, and expected goals.
This is a crucial improvement. Teams that succeed in the playoffs are typically among the league’s “analytical darlings.” Last season’s Stanley Cup champions, for instance, finished first in shot share (59.8%). The Carolina Hurricanes also ranked fourth in high-danger scoring chances (55.2%) and second in expected goals (55.9%).
Strong underlying numbers are no guarantee of winning the Stanley Cup, but they tend to be reliable indicators of future success.
Last season, after seven games, the Canadiens ranked in the bottom 10 in shot share, goal share, and expected goals—yet they still controlled more than 55% of the goals. This suggested they were overperforming relative to their process.
After the same number of games this year, the Habs have shown clear gains in shot share, expected-goal share, and, most importantly, high-danger shot share. That last metric is especially significant, as the team has struggled to generate high-quality scoring chances ever since Martin St-Louis took over as head coach.
It’s fair to say the Canadiens have taken an impressive step forward at 5v5, even if the results have not yet fully caught up to their much-improved process.
The Bad
While Montreal has climbed from a bottom-10 to a top-10 team in several key statistical categories, they’re dealing with a clear downtick in shooting efficiency and goaltending
Their shooting percentage should rise as the season progresses, but for now it sits well behind the pace they set over the first seven games last year. The same logic applies to the goaltending. The team save percentage is likely to end up above 87%, yet there remains considerable work to be done in the crease.
Playing Jacob Fowler with more frequency, as Jakub Dobes struggles to find his rhythm, is the obvious short-term solution to this dilemma.
The Ugly
Heading into the 2026-27 season, all eyes were on the penalty kill, as most fans and analysts were already satisfied with the team’s improved power-play results.
Hockey, however, is a fickle sport. What works in one season can fall apart in the next, even when many of the same variables remain in place. The Canadiens currently rank 27th on the power play with a meagre 13.6% conversion rate. On the penalty kill they sit in the middle of the pack, 18th at 80%.
There is no hard-and-fast rule, but teams generally aim for their combined special-teams efficiency to total around 100%—a rough indicator of healthy units. The Habs sit well below that mark at 93.6%.
It is worth noting they also started last season poorly in this area. After seven games, their power play was operating at 17.4% and their penalty kill at 73.7%, for a combined 91.1%.
In short, special teams are off to a slightly better start than a year ago. Given how low the bar was set, though, that modest improvement may offer little comfort to many Canadiens fans.
All Montreal Canadiens statistics are 5v5 unless otherwise noted, via Natural Stat Trick.
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