BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Thursday 15 October, the electoral court of Rio de Janeiro state voted to ask for federal troops to guard the runoff.
- The reason The court says armed criminal gangs and militias still control large areas and polling places around Rio, a threat to free voting.
- The plan Army, Navy and Air Force soldiers would help deliver voting machines and patrol major roads in 15 cities, including Rio de Janeiro and Niterói.
- The next step Brazil’s top electoral court must approve the request, and only then is the Defence Ministry asked to send the troops.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 79.2% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (16 October, 3:38 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 79% and Kalshi at 78% (Lula: 21% and 22%), as of 16 October, 3:40 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Rio de Janeiro’s state electoral court voted unanimously on Thursday 15 October to ask for federal troops to protect Brazil’s runoff on Sunday 25 October. The request, reported by the public news agency Agência Brasil, targets armed criminal gangs and militias that control parts of the Rio region.
For US readers, the request shows how security shapes the vote in Brazil’s second-largest city, home to Copacabana and Christ the Redeemer. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces conservative Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, and the result will shape Brazil’s ties with Washington and its markets.
What the Court Decided
The Regional Electoral Court of Rio de Janeiro, known as the TRE-RJ, voted on Thursday 15 October to request federal troops for the runoff. It runs elections in the state as the regional branch of Brazil’s electoral justice system.
On its website the court said its full bench of judges approved the request for the Força Federal, the federal force. The request goes to the Superior Electoral Court, the TSE, in Brasília.
The TSE is Brazil’s top electoral court and has the final say on whether federal troops are sent. The TRE-RJ president, Judge Cláudio de Mello Tavares, made the case for the request in his vote, Agência Brasil reported.
Why the Court Says Troops Are Needed
Tavares told the court that the reasons behind the first-round request still stand, according to Agência Brasil. He said the public security picture “remains unchanged” and called it a “serious and continuing threat to the free exercise of the vote”.
The court points to armed criminal factions and militias that hold sway over large areas and polling places in the Rio metropolitan region. Militias are armed gangs that control neighbourhoods by force and charge residents for protection.
Before the first round, Tavares said the concern is not only open violence but also quieter intimidation of voters. He said the vote must be free in every Rio polling station, Agência Brasil reported on 2 September.
Where the Soldiers Would Go
Agência Brasil reported that Army, Navy and Air Force soldiers would patrol major roads in 15 cities and help move voting machines. The list includes Rio de Janeiro, Niterói, Duque de Caxias, Nova Iguaçu, São Gonçalo and Belford Roxo.
Together the cities cover the state capital and a wide ring of its metropolitan region. The agency gave no troop numbers, and the state government supports the request.
Rio’s governor race ended in the first round, when Douglas Ruas of the Liberal Party, former president Jair Bolsonaro’s party, won after a recount. Voters there now choose only a president, as our earlier report explained.
How the Request Moves Forward
The request now goes to the TSE in Brasília. If the TSE approves, it will formally ask the Defence Ministry to send the troops, Agência Brasil reported.
The same path was followed before the first round. The TRE-RJ voted unanimously in July, and the TSE then approved federal forces for Rio unanimously, Agência Brasil reported on 2 September.
Federal forces have been used in Rio elections since 2012, according to reports on the July request. Under TSE rules, they can be deployed only when the governor says state forces are not enough, CartaCapital reported.
For the first round, the Defence Ministry said 26,500 military personnel were involved in election security and logistics across Brazil. Troops covered 482 municipalities in 12 states and 8,827 voting locations, according to a TSE article of 3 October.
What It Means for You
If you follow US politics, the request shows a runoff being run under heavy security in a state where armed gangs shape daily life. The winner will deal with Washington on trade, and Lula says he does not rule out retaliation if no tariff deal is reached.
If you visit Rio around 25 October, you may see federal troops near voting sites if the TSE approves. Foreign visitors cannot vote in Brazil’s election.
If you invest in Brazil, a calm vote matters as much as the winner. A Quaest poll on 14 October put Flávio at 46% and Lula at 44%, and our runoff poll tracker shows where the race stands.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 79.2% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (16 October, 3:38 a.m. ET). Lula stands at 20.5%, and Flávio’s price fell 3.6 points over the previous 24 hours while Lula’s rose 4.0 points.
The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$184.2 million in total bets. These are bets, not polls, and they can move fast on court news.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 79.2% · Lula 20.5% (US$184 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 78% · Lula 22%
As of 16 October, 3:40 am ET (08:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
How many soldiers would be sent, and from which units, has not been made public. The date by which the TSE will decide on the request is also not known.
Whether the TSE will approve all 15 cities or only some is open. Whether troops will stand at polling places or only patrol nearby routes is not stated.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who asked for federal troops in Rio?
The Regional Electoral Court of Rio de Janeiro, the TRE-RJ, voted on Thursday 15 October to ask for federal troops. The state government supports the request, according to Agência Brasil.
Have the federal troops been approved?
Not yet. The TSE, Brazil’s top electoral court, must approve the request before the Defence Ministry is asked to send federal troops.
Why does Rio want federal troops for the runoff?
The court says armed factions and militias control large areas and polling places in the Rio metropolitan region. It calls this a serious and continuing threat to free voting.
Were federal troops used in the first round?
Yes. The TSE unanimously approved federal forces for Rio before the first round on 4 October, Agência Brasil reported.
When is Brazil’s presidential runoff?
The runoff is on Sunday 25 October. Lula faces Senator Flávio Bolsonaro for the presidency.
Sources: TRE-RJ (Regional Electoral Court of Rio de Janeiro), 15 October 2026; Agência Brasil, 15 October 2026; TSE (Superior Electoral Court), 3 October 2026; Agência Brasil, 2 September 2026; CartaCapital, 10 July 2026; DGABC, 10 July 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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