Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on Saturday announced plans to step down from power at the end of his third term in 2030.
Observers have long speculated about whether the president could attempt a re-run of the 2019 constitutional amendments and change the rules to allow a fourth term as the head of state.
But in a speech at the Egyptian Military Academy, Sisi vowed not to run for a fourth time and announced plans about how his potential successors would be chosen.
Here's what we know - and what we don't.
Sisi says he will step down in 2030
Speaking at a military graduation ceremony in the New Administrative Capital, Sisi said that his current term will be his last in office and pledged not to stand in the next election in 2030.
"The period leading up to 2030 will be the end of my term as president of the state, if I am still alive. This is completely settled, and there will be no discussion about it," he said.
Sisi is currently serving a six-year term after winning the December 2023 presidential election with 90% of the vote.
He also ruled out further constitutional changes to keep him in office into the next decade. Constitutional amendments in 2019 lengthened presidential terms from four to six years and enabled him to serve a third term.
There has long been speculation among political commentators and opposition figures about whether the constitution would again be amended to allow him to run for a fourth term.
"The Egyptian constitution will not be touched," he vowed.
But will he?
Sisi has a track record of reversing course on comments related to his political future. After his coup against Egypt's first democratically elected president, Mohammed Morsi, in July 2013, Sisi downplayed any ambitions to run for president, only to later enter the 2014 election race.
Three years later, he vowed to honour the constitution and not seek a third term in office. But in 2019, the constitutional amendments were passed in a landslide public vote, clearing the way for Sisi to contest the 2023 vote and remain in power for the next decade.
"I wouldn't get too secure about any assumptions about who will occupy Egypt's presidential palaces in 2031," Timothy E. Kaldas, deputy director of the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, told The New Arab.
Whether or not his statements over the weekend were sincere, crises over the next four years could be used as a pretext to keep him in office, he said. Regime officials and media personalities may try to build a case that he should remain in power due to "popular demand".
"A lot could happen in the coming four years before 2030 … Whatever the real plan is today, there's no guarantee that plan will survive the coming four years of uncertainty and volatility," Kaldas added.
Military training for potential successors
Sisi announced that all potential presidential candidates will be required to undergo more than two years of training at the Egyptian Military Academy, which will teach them how to "protect the state".
Under draft legislation, the military will take charge of training potentially hundreds of people to stand in future presidential elections. Graduates of the programme could also be appointed to lead ministries and government agencies and serve as governors.
The Speaker of Parliament will lead a committee of ministers, politicians and intellectuals to draft the legislation, which will determine how candidates are selected.
"They would spend 30 months here at the academy learning what a state means, what its capabilities are, and how to protect them," Sisi said.
"We must not hand it over to just anyone. Someone who can put a few well-organised sentences together is not automatically qualified to lead the Egyptian state," he said.
The move is the latest to expand the military's power over the state during Sisi's 12-year presidency. Since coming to power, the army has significantly grown its economic footprint and acquired new influence over the government.
This includes the 2019 constitutional amendments, which broadened its role beyond protecting national security and tasked it with "protecting the constitution and democracy".
That the army will play a central role in determining future presidential candidates "reflects its continued centrality to the regime," Kaldas said.
"This is part of the growing influence of the security apparatus over civilian sectors throughout Egypt and the increased subjugation of civilian ministries and agencies to control by various security sector pillars of President Sisi's regime," he added.
