For the past 32 years, whenever the Springfield Republican Party meets in its spooky castle outside town, present for gatherings is The Rich Texan. A gun-toting, cowboy hat-wearing, fiscal conservative, Richard “Rich” Texan was introduced as The Simpsons’ caricature of his namesake state in 1993.
Around the time Rich Texan was introduced, Texas was having a moment in conservative politics. President George H.W. Bush—a former Texas congressman—had just exited the White House, and two years later, his son, George W. Bush, was elected to serve as Texas Governor, a role he held for six years before being elected president.
Synonymous with oil and free market capitalism, as George W. Bush saw his profile rise, so too did Rich Texans’. Texas Monthly published a profile of how the character became a source of satire, becoming part of America’s characterization of both the state and American conservatism.
However, the political potency of the conservative rich Texan may be in jeopardy.
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Polls show Democratic State Representative James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by an average of one and a half points, per RealClear Polling. In the governor’s race, the polling average gives three-term Republican Governor Greg Abbott a two-point lead over Democratic State Representative Gina Hinojosa.
It’s true midterm election years are usually bad for the party in power, and it’s also true that the Texas Democratic Party has rebuilt itself from virtually nothing. However, there’s more to the Texas polling than simply those two factors.
Under MAGA and Donald Trump, the Republican Party has distanced itself from the Bush family and, by virtue, Texas. “I beat [the] Bush dynasty,” Trump said during a 2018 Fox appearance. Today, instead of Dallas or Houston serving as the epicenter of the GOP, the power lies in Trump’s Palm Beach, Florida compound, Mar-a-Lago. That shift may cost Texas Republicans this November.
“I do think [Texas has] been supplanted for the mantle of MAGA by the Floridas of the world,” former Texas Republican State Representative Jason Villalba told Newsweek. “We are classic conservative Republicans. I believe in the culture of life, in strong family, in anti-authoritarianism. I don't believe in embracing the authoritarians of the world. I don't believe in tariffs. I don't believe in all these things that everybody seems to be comfortable with now as Republicans.”
Villalba, a fourth-generation Texan of Mexican descent, holds a story shared by many Republicans across the state. He grew up an admirer of Ronald Reagan, engaging with Republican groups in high school and college before beginning a career in law that led him to public office in 2013. “[I was] very chamber of commerce,” he said. However, as Villalba entered office, the party he knew was in the midst of change.
The Tea Party movement was beginning to pick up momentum, and less than two years into Villalba’s time in office, the movement notched its biggest win after Tea Party conservative Dave Brat knocked off House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in Virginia’s Republican primary. Because Villalba shared the desire to counter President Barack Obama, he could work with the group. However, when the Tea Party morphed into MAGA, Villalba found himself on the outs.
“I didn't think [Trump] had a chance to win, and lo and behold, he does, and when he does and is embraced by the party, I'm summarily kicked out of the party,” Villalba said. He lost his primary to MAGA-aligned challenger Lisa Luby Ryan in 2018. Ryan was the preferred candidate of Texas Scorecard, a conservative media outlet tied to financial backers who’ve supported Paxton. “So many people in Texas share my story.”
Former Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives Dade Phelan is one of those people. A lifelong Catholic who started working in Republican politics after college, Phelan was elected to the statehouse in 2014 on a pro-business platform. By 2021, he rose to the role of Speaker. Two years into that job, he was confronted with a major challenge.
A Republican-led House committee revealed findings of an investigation into Paxton’s push for $3.3 million in taxpayer dollars to settle a whistleblower lawsuit filed by former deputies who had accused him of misconduct. Phelan held the vote, and Paxton was impeached on a 121–23 margin. Paxton denied wrongdoing. Newsweek has asked the Paxton campaign for comment.
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Under the leadership of Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, however, the Senate voted to acquit Paxton on all 16 of the counts he faced, despite some Republicans crossing the aisle to vote him guilty on several counts.
In 2024, Phelan was censured by the now MAGA-controlled state party and faced a primary challenger endorsed by Paxton, Patrick, and Trump. Phelan beat the challenger and remains in office to this day, but stepped down as Speaker in 2025. He did so even though he believes he had the votes to win because he didn’t want his colleagues to have to choose between him and Trump, at least not publicly.
“There're a lot of folks out there who pine for the days of the old school Republican, whether it's George Bush or Ronald Reagan, because they don’t feel like they have a party or a home anymore,” Phelan told Newsweek. “Some may hold their nose and vote for Paxton, but I would say if it’s not a third of the party that feels this way in the primary, it’s at least close to that. We will see how many spit their ticket now that Trump did not endorse the entire slate.”
The reasons for those feelings aren’t just cultural and ideological—they’re practical as well. Texas has long prided itself as a free-market capitalist state, going toe to toe with California in the fight to host the most Fortune 500 companies (it currently leads that fight with 57 companies).
Phelan argues that in the eyes of many traditional conservatives, MAGA operates counter to that effort. “What MAGA insiders are doing, is just picking winners and losers at this point,” Phelan said, noting the administration’s tariff agenda. “Under their policies, the oil and gas futures swing every single day, as they're tweeting about the war in Iran War being over one day and starting up the war again the next day.”
Right now, Phelan said Paxton and the MAGA-aligned PACs supporting his campaign are trying to mask these economic issues with culture war attacks, like those focused on transgender people playing in sports. While such appeals worked in the past, he believes they’re currently missing the mark.
“It's laughable to think that the average Texan cares or even knows about gender modification surgery when no one even knows anybody who's had a sex change, much less can even afford it," he said. "It just doesn’t happen in their community. It costs more than $100K. Despite that, we are spending $150 million plus on nonstop ads and mailers on it. What is really happening is $6.50 diesel, $4.00 gas, $7.00 beef, & every line of insurance no one can afford. Let’s talk about that.”
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Cheryl Shadden, a 64-year-old nurse from Granbury, Texas, is one of the people who finds today’s GOP out of touch. A lifelong Republican, Shadden became disillusioned with the party after a data center was built near her house. The facility generates a loud whooshing sound all night, keeping her up.
She found local Republican leadership’s response so lackluster that she’s gotten involved with Hinojosa’s gubernatorial campaign. Shadden believes that the Republican Party under Bush would engage with problems constructively, whereas today’s party keeps voters distracted by fear.
“I have literally had politicians here in Hood County tell me that now I am siding with baby killers; I am siding with Satan; I am siding with the Communist Party,” Shadden told Newsweek. “That is just some serious fearmongering when you’re saying, ‘Hey we have a data center problem, and something needs to get done about it.’”
Rhetoric is an area where the Republican Party of Bush and MAGA also divide. Whereas Trump often has referred to his political opponents as “the enemy from within," both Bushes were known to refer to their opposition as “my friends.” While George W. Bush has kept out of the midterms, his former advisor Karl Rove complained publicly that "my party is infiltrated by these people,” who he called “conspiracy nuts," and Bush’s daughter, Barbara Bush, contributed $2,500 to a Talarico-aligned path. To some Texas Republicans, bucking the party now is a matter of saving its character.
While the image of Texas often emphasizes rugged individualism, the individuals interviewed for this piece mentioned its moral character as well. Sitting alongside Homer Simpson on the hood of his white Cadillac, looking up at the stars, Rich Texan turns to Homer with a distressed look on his face and asks, “Why do you think it is that mankind is so inclined toward hating one another?” “I don’t know,” Homer responds. “Let’s just lay here till we figure it out.”
The conclusion of those who figure it out could define both Texas and the Republican Party's future.