Baylor enters Week 7 with a 4-1 record and momentum following its dominant 55-19 road victory over Arizona State. As the Bears prepare to host rival TCU on Saturday, they remain a potential dark horse in the Big 12 championship race.
According to DraftKings, Baylor has +1500 odds to win the conference title, tied with Oklahoma State for the fifth-shortest odds in the Big 12. While BYU, Utah and Texas Tech lead the field, the Bears still have opportunities to close the gap.
Where Baylor Stands in the Latest Big 12 Championship Odds
BYU and Utah are the co-favorites to win the conference, each carrying +235 odds at DraftKings. Texas Tech follows closely at +270, creating a sizable gap between the top three contenders and the rest of the field.
Houston has the fourth-shortest odds at +1050, followed by Baylor and Oklahoma State at +1500. Arizona sits just behind them at +1650, while Arizona State is a distant long shot at +8200.
Baylor's odds translate to an implied championship probability of approximately 6.3%, before accounting for the sportsbook's margin. Although the Bears remain underdogs, they are among the leading contenders outside the conference's top tier.
Why Baylor Has a Realistic Path to the Big 12 Championship
Baylor's strength on both sides of the ball was evident in its victory over Arizona State, when the Bears totaled 564 yards and seven offensive touchdowns.
Quarterback DJ Lagway completed 25 of 40 passes for 306 yards and four touchdowns, adding another score on the ground in his first turnover-free game of the season. Baylor also rushed for 244 yards, led by Ryelan Morris and Caden Knighten, who each finished with 84 yards and a touchdown, including scoring runs of 63 and 75 yards, respectively.
The defense has been equally impressive, ranking fourth in the Big 12 in scoring defense at just 14.2 points allowed per game. Baylor has held all five opponents to 20 points or fewer, its longest such streak to open a season since 1966 and its longest at any point in a season since 1986.
The Bears have been particularly effective against the run, surrendering just 97.4 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry. They've also recorded 18 sacks and forced 10 turnovers, including five interceptions, while ranking second in the Big 12 in opponent passing efficiency.
That defensive success has carried into conference play, with Baylor holding Colorado to 13 points and Arizona State to 19.
With an explosive offense complemented by a productive defense, Baylor has the pieces to challenge the Big 12's leading contenders.
What Could Keep Baylor From Winning the Big 12?
Despite its promising start, Baylor faces significant obstacles in its pursuit of a conference championship.
With BYU, Utah and Texas Tech still undefeated and several other teams firmly in contention, the race for the Big 12 championship remains crowded entering Week 7.
The Bears have yet to face any of the three betting favorites, making their late-season matchups particularly important. Baylor will need to maintain its early-season consistency against increasingly difficult competition.
Big 12 Matchups to Watch That Could Shake Up the Championship Race
Baylor's championship hopes will largely depend on its own results, but several remaining matchups between conference contenders could create opportunities for the Bears to climb the standings.
Oklahoma State at Houston — Oct. 17
Two of Baylor's closest competitors in the betting market meet Saturday in Houston. Oklahoma State enters with a 4-1 overall record and a 2-0 conference mark, while Houston is 5-1 overall and 2-1 in Big 12 play.
The matchup guarantees another conference loss for one of Baylor's potential competitors for a championship berth.
Houston at Utah — Oct. 24
Houston faces another significant test the following week when it travels to Salt Lake City.
An upset would hand Utah its first loss and potentially open the door for Baylor to gain ground. Conversely, a Utes victory would give Houston its second conference defeat, weakening another team competing for a spot in Arlington.
Texas Tech at Cincinnati — Oct. 24
Texas Tech enters Week 7 at 5-0 overall and 2-0 in conference play, with Big 12 victories over Houston and Colorado.
A road trip to Cincinnati presents an opportunity for the Red Raiders to stumble before their late-season matchups against Oklahoma State and Baylor. An upset would be particularly beneficial for the Bears, who host Texas Tech on Nov. 21.
BYU at Utah — Nov. 7
Few remaining games carry greater championship implications than the meeting between the conference's two betting co-favorites.
Both teams enter Week 7 undefeated, and their rivalry showdown guarantees a conference loss for one of them.
If Baylor can remain unbeaten in Big 12 play until then, the result could improve its position entering the final three weeks.
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State — Nov. 14
Another pivotal matchup comes when Texas Tech visits Oklahoma State.
With both teams among the conference's leading contenders, the result could have significant implications for the standings ahead of Baylor's meeting with the Red Raiders the following week.
Can Baylor Make a Run to Arlington?
Baylor's most difficult stretch comes at the end of the regular season.
After hosting TCU and Iowa State and traveling to Kansas and UCF, Baylor closes with three consecutive matchups against teams holding shorter or equal championship odds.
The Bears travel to BYU on Nov. 14, host Texas Tech on Nov. 21 and finish the regular season at Houston on Nov. 28.
Victories in those contests would not only strengthen Baylor's conference record but could also provide valuable head-to-head advantages in a tightly contested championship race.
Baylor last won the Big 12 title in 2021. Returning to Arlington will require the Bears to prove they can sustain their early-season success against the conference's strongest opponents.
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