Anita Nkonki|Published
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will present the mini-budget on Wednesday.
South Africa’s weak growth, rising public debt, and mounting cost-of-living pressures will come under scrutiny when Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana tables the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) today, amid calls for greater investment, better public spending, and relief for struggling households.
President Cyril Ramaphosa is also expected to attend Parliament for the tabling of the MTBPS, the Presidency announced.
Godongwana will outline the National Treasury’s assessment of the economy, government’s priorities, and its revenue and spending plans over the next three years, while setting the direction for the next national budget.
Providing an economic assessment ahead of the statement, Siseko Maposa, director of Surgetower Associates Management Consultancy, warned that the government could no longer hide the country’s deep economic problems behind optimistic promises.
“I suspect that MTBPS 2026 will prove unable to gloss over the severe structural crises we currently face behind eloquent rhetoric, as has happened in previous cycles,” Maposa said.
“The economic fault lines are too exposed.”
Maposa pointed to persistently low growth, high public debt, and a population growing faster than the economy as key challenges. He estimated public debt at between 77.5% and 78.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), and said transport and logistics disruptions, along with global energy shocks pushing up fuel prices, had added to the pressure on households.
With debt-servicing costs taking up a substantial share of government revenue, Maposa warned that cutting spending alone would not solve the country’s economic problems.
“While it is true that debt-servicing costs are consuming a devastating share of state revenue, defensive austerity alone will not rescue the fiscal framework,” he said.
Maposa advocated targeted investment in infrastructure and logistics, arguing that these sectors could stimulate economic activity, improve productivity and help lift the economy out of stagnation.
The question of whether the government’s efforts to control debt are translating into meaningful progress is also at the centre of criticism from the EFF, which has challenged the focus on achieving a primary budget surplus.
Budget 2026 projected a primary surplus of 0.9% of GDP in 2025/26, rising to 1.6% in 2026/27 and 2.3% by 2028/29. The government also projected that debt would stabilise at 78.9% of GDP.
A primary surplus occurs when government revenue exceeds its spending, excluding interest payments on debt. Treasury has argued that this helps reduce borrowing needs and interest costs.
The EFF, however, argued that improving the numbers meant little if unemployment remains high and people continue to struggle to access basic services.
“Celebrating a surplus while unemployment rises is celebrating the wrong scoreboard,” the party said.
Beyond the debate over debt and spending, the government is also facing calls to provide immediate relief to households battling rising transport and food costs.
Build One South Africa (BOSA) leader Dr Mmusi Maimane has called for a temporary reduction in the general fuel levy, arguing that high fuel prices put further pressure on consumers.
“We must provide immediate relief to households facing the cost of travel.”
Maimane wants the R10 billion special appropriation earmarked for fuel relief to fund a R3-a-litre reduction in the levy for November. BOSA has also called for an investigation into the Road Accident Fund component of the fuel levy, raising concerns about the fund’s efficiency and governance.
Fiscal policy is also under scrutiny over its role in addressing the social costs of harmful alcohol use. Kashifa Ancer, project lead for Rethink Your Drink, an alcohol-harm reduction campaign by the DG Murray Trust, wants the MTBPS to clarify whether the government intends to pursue minimum unit pricing (MUP).
The policy would set a minimum price for a standard drink, making cheap, high-strength alcohol less affordable, particularly for heavy drinkers.
“These developments tell us that government understands that pricing and container sizes affect consumption patterns, and if we want to address alcohol harm, we must prevent heavy drinking,” Ancer said.
The campaign wants minimum unit pricing introduced alongside changes to alcohol excise taxes, rather than as a substitute.
“MUP gives government another lever to reduce harmful drinking without relying on excise increases alone. But it is not a substitute. If excise taxes are reformed, MUP must come with them. The strongest approach is to use both tools together,” she said.
Cosatu’s parliamentary coordinatorMatthew Parks said that workers are under siege “with unemployment rising to a dangerously high 43.8%, the economy continuing to limp along at anemic 1.2%growth, and working-class communities battered by poverty, inequality, crime and corruption”.
“2026 has been particularly painful due to the war in the Middle East, which has sent oil prices soaring, hammering South Africa with over 25% petrol and50% diesel price hikes. This has spiked inflation, triggered two repo rate hikes, and pushed workers deeper into poverty.”
anita.nkonki@inl.co.za