New vehicle sales for September reached 1 498 units worth about N$1 billion, with Windhoek taking the lion’s share of 64% of national sales.
The vehicles sold were 14.9% up year on year from 1 304, and 8.7% above August’s figure of 1 378 units.
According to Simonis Storm Securities analyst Almandro Jansen, the average passenger car listed at N$601 000, and the average light commercial vehicle at N$742 000.
“Half of passenger volume sold below N$450 000, with Chinese passenger models averaging N$511 000 against N$615 000 for established brands,” he says.
September marked a growth re-acceleration in every segment except trucks, as passenger registrations rose 18.9% to 655 units, the fastest growth this year. Year to date, the segment is up a more modest 9.7%.
Light commercial vehicles grew 13.5% to 746 units, a three-month high, the analyst says.
The Hilux sold 359 units, still 24% of the entire market, but its share of the light commercial vehicle segment eased to 48% from 56% in August.
“The Ford Ranger posted its best month of the year at 86 units, while Isuzu’s D-Max was second best at 60 – looking more like the first real competition for the Hilux,” Jansen says.
He says medium, heavy and bus registrations rose just 1.0% to 97 units as Shacman delivered two units after 31 in August.
“That reflects the lumpy timing of fleet contracts rather than weaker demand. The segment is still up 29.0% year to date, and remains our best real-time read on mining, logistics and early oil and gas investment,” he says.
Dealer channel sales of 1 476 units were the highest for any month since December 2015 while rental registrations fell to 18 units from 156 in August as fleets completed their tourist season intake.
“With fleet buying stripped out, September is the cleanest read of household and business demand we have had all year, and it is firm,” Jansen says.
Rental registrations reached 938 units in the first nine months, up 45.9% and already the highest annual total since 2017.
Intake peaked at 193 units in March and ran at 145 to 161 a month from June to August. Based on last year’s pattern of five units across October and November 2025, rental will add little in the fourth quarter of 2026.
“That makes the dealer channel, where the rate and fuel shock lands hardest, the swing factor for the rest of the year.
The encouraging point is that it enters the fourth quarter at its strongest level in almost 11 years and is up 10.3% year to date,” Jansen says.
On a rolling 12-month basis the market reached 15 901 units, the highest since February 2017 and more than double the December 2020 trough of 7 479.
It is still 25% below the 2015 level of 21 195, when mine construction, easy credit and fiscal expansion inflated demand.
“This is a recovery to normal, not a boom. There is room to run if investment arrives, and little cushion if it does not,” the analyst says.
– email: matthew@namibian.com.na
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