Should Andy Burnham call a snap election? Emily Sheffield reports from the political tittle tattle field of David Cameron’s 60th party in today’s Notebook
Party chat turns to politics at David Cameron’s 60th
This weekend in Cornwall, celebrating David Cameron’s 60th birthday, politics was refreshingly off the menu. This was all about family and old friends, cold water plunges, wind-blown hikes to shed hangovers and a lot of eating. Only once did talk briefly slip onto Westminster’s current obsession: will Andy Burnham hold a snap election.
The verdict from the politicos present was split. Most pinned spring 2027 as the likeliest date, not December; 2028 a strong possibility and 2029 the least likely. But everyone agreed that for Burnham the risks could still outweigh the gains, even if his advisors persuade him differently.
Firstly, what is his reason for the voting public about why he’s going to the polls? This was Theresa May’s mistake. She had none, then lost the sizable majority won by Cameron and never really recovered. Whereas Boris Johnson had a clear argument: Get Brexit Done. The polls point to Burnham being still short of a majority and losing 99 seats.
True, their ‘Lean Left’ strategy is working, so they could soon hit 30 per cent. But the public want PMs to get on with the job, polling can change fast in a fevered run-up. Let’s not forget Brenda from Bristol. When May called her snap election in April 2017, a reporter stopped Brenda in the street to break the news, and she replied, “You’re joking! Not another one! Oh, for God’s sake I can’t stand this!”
There is, of course, also a lesson in not calling one. Gordon Brown in 2007 let speculation about an autumn election build, then backed off, and “the election that never was” dogged him until 2010.
Soon speculation will lock Burnham in. Or risk him looking weak. More pressure for Chancellor John Healey to deliver on October 28.
Clarkson parties at The Savoy
Last Thursday, it was off to The Savoy for Jeremy Clarkson’s book launch, Diddly Squat, The G.O.A.T. We had bonded on stage at the farmer’s rally two years ago when 20,000 people gathered outside Westminster to protest at the family farms tax. And we’re still campaigning: Clarkson was in a suit for the second time that week, having wowed Conservative Party Conference on Monday. “But please don’t tell anyone you were here this evening,” he implored, “I forgot to ask 60 per cent of my friends, including all of my children!” Sorry Jezza, but you’re just a man we like to shout about.
Bayeux ticket wars continue
Finally, a viewing of the great Bayeux embroidery. First at a Bloomberg corporate event on Tuesday, where I slipped in as soon as the speeches ended and enjoyed a near solitary visit before the queue swelled. Then back the following day with our paid tickets for a 4.20pm slot. Two hours of queuing. I quit after one, leaving my husband who finally entered at 6.30pm, by which time all excitement had evaporated. British Museum, you do need to do better, or the frustration between the corporate and the public experience will grow far bigger.
Quote of the week
For people who say ‘Unite the right’ – we are not uniting with that
Kemi Badenoch on Reform
Kemi’s stylist
Huge kudos to fashion designer Polly McMaster, the founder and CEO of The Fold. Kemi Badenoch shone at the Tory Conference not just because of her speech, and sheer star quality, but also because of what she wore. And most of her stand-out outfits came from The Fold. For women in the City, The Fold is where they frequently turn because dressing for the boardroom and female leadership is surprisingly challenging. And McMaster is one of the few designers who has nailed it.
The man behind the mic
All broadcasters suffer a twinge of anxiety publicly airing our views. The reaction can be ferocious. The margin for error is wide. Frequently I have watched in amusement (or horror) as a comment of mine goes stratospheric on X or ends up on the front pages. And LBC broadcaster Iain Dale has drawn his fair share of controversy. So it is fitting that his memoir is entitled Have I Said Too Much? His books are on my shelves, and I regularly appear on his LBC panel sessions. Yet I know little of his life. This throws the door open.