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UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev continues on the early prelims with a fight between Abubakar Vagaev and Jacob Malkoun in the middleweight division. Check out our UFC 333 odds series for our Vagaev-Malkoun prediction and pick.
Abubakar Vagaev (25-4) outpointed Saygid Izagakhmaev in his July UFC debut, following a unanimous decision victory over Albert Tumenov at ACA 183 in February 2025. Those wins highlight his ability to grind through opposition as he moves to middleweight, coming into his fight this weekend against Jacob Malkoun.
Jacob Malkoun (10-3) carries three consecutive victories into UFC 333. He outpointed Gerald Meerschaert by unanimous decision in May after unanimously defeating Torrez Finney in January. Those consecutive victories over fellow grapplers provide valuable momentum as he comes into his fight this weekend against Abubakar Vagaev.
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UFC 333 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings
UFC 333 Odds: Abubakar Vagaev-Jacob Malkoun Odds
Abubakar Vagaev: -162
Jacob Malkoun: +136
Over 2.5 rounds: -345
Under 2.5 rounds: +250
Why Abubakar Vagaev Will Win
Abubakar Vagaev can beat Jacob Malkoun at UFC 333 by turning their wrestling battle into a contest of positioning and efficiency. His takedown timing and ability to win scrambles give him a credible route to controlling where this matchup unfolds.
Vagaev landed four takedowns and accumulated 7:46 of control time against Saygid Izagakhmaev in his UFC debut. That performance provides evidence that he can establish sustained grappling pressure against capable opposition, rather than relying on isolated takedowns.
Malkoun presents a demanding challenge, but his defensive wrestling offers Vagaev an opening to exploit throughout three rounds. His listed 55% takedown defense and struggles escaping Gerald Meerschaert’s early control suggest he can lose valuable minutes underneath opponents.
I expect Vagaev to attack those weaknesses through chained entries, mat returns and short strikes whenever Malkoun prioritizes standing up. His willingness to work along the fence and throw knees and elbows should also create scoring opportunities between wrestling exchanges.
Moving up from welterweight introduces uncertainty, particularly against an established middleweight who can impose his own demanding grappling pace. Nevertheless, I favor Vagaev to win the positional exchanges, land the cleaner offense and secure a competitive unanimous decision through disciplined execution over fifteen minutes.
Why Jacob Malkoun Will Win
Jacob Malkoun can beat Abubakar Vagaev at UFC 333 by making this a relentless wrestling contest rather than a measured technical battle. His route involves repeated takedown attempts, sustained pressure and forcing Vagaev to defend instead of initiating his offense.
Malkoun enters with three consecutive victories, including decision wins over Torrez Finney and Gerald Meerschaert. Those results strengthen the argument that he can handle grappling exchanges without abandoning his approach when opponents resist his initial entries or threaten reversals.
The statistical comparison also gives Malkoun a reasonable opportunity to establish his preferred positions throughout this matchup. He completes 42% of his takedown attempts, while Vagaev’s listed takedown defense sits at 71%, leaving openings worth testing through persistent attacks.
Vagaev is moving up from welterweight, whereas Malkoun already has extensive experience competing against UFC middleweights. That distinction could matter when they meet along the fence, where I expect Malkoun to use physical pressure and repeated mat returns effectively.
The danger is allowing Vagaev to dictate exchanges, so Malkoun needs to initiate early and keep working through scrambles. I favor that sustained activity to produce the more convincing rounds, with Malkoun earning a competitive unanimous decision through pressure and positional control.
Final Abubakar Vagaev-Jacob Malkoun Prediction & Pick
Abubakar Vagaev enters this fascinating stylistic clash as the betting favorite largely due to his suffocating wrestling pedigree and immense physical strength. However, Jacob Malkoun has drastically evolved his overall mixed martial arts game by transforming into a high-volume striker with exceptional defensive grappling.
The Australian middleweight possesses the necessary lateral movement and stiff jab to keep the Russian prospect on the outside. If Malkoun can successfully stuff the early takedown attempts he will quickly drain Vagaev’s stamina by forcing him to fight moving backward.
While Vagaev is incredibly dangerous in the opening frames his chain wrestling relies heavily on immediate success against the cage. Expect Malkoun to weather that early storm by utilizing his superior cardiovascular endurance to take over the striking exchanges in the later rounds.
The surging Australian should outpace his tiring opponent down the stretch with clean boxing combinations. Ultimately, Malkoun will secure a gritty unanimous decision upset to extend his impressive winning streak.
Final Abubakar Vagaev-Jacob Malkoun Prediction & Pick: Jacob Malkoun (+136), OVER 2.5 Rounds (-345)
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