Morning Minute: Bitcoin Tops JPMorgan’s Ten-Year Forecast for All Assets

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Bitcoin Tops JPMorgan’s Ten-Year Forecast for All Assets

JPMorgan Asset Management just released its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, the 31st edition of a report institutional allocators build their models around. It contains thirteen asset classes, ranked by expected compound return over the next decade.

Bitcoin is at the top of it.

JPMorgan projects a whopping 10% annually for Bitcoin over 10 to 15 years. REITs come second at 8.2%, small caps 7.7%, U.S. large caps 7.5%. Gold lands at 5.5%. Over a decade of compounding, $100 in Bitcoin becomes $259 against $206 in large caps and $171 in gold.

This is the first time Bitcoin has appeared in the report at all, and that matters more than the number. Pension consultants and RIAs run their allocation models off assumptions like these, and for the past thirty editions Bitcoin’s expected return was undefined. Now it has a figure, from JPMorgan, at the top of the table.

Bitcoin’s arithmetic return is 20.9% while the compound figure is 10%, a 10.9-point gap that is pure volatility drag. For large caps that same gap is 1.45 points. Annualized volatility: 55%, against 18% for stocks. The forecast isn’t that Bitcoin is a better version of stocks. It’s that Bitcoin pays more and makes you live through considerably more to collect it. Anyone who has lived through the ups and downs of crypto cycles over the past decade would agree.

Two things stand out for crypto. The debasement argument just lost its loudest potential endorsement. JPMorgan called that bull case “wide of the mark” and put gold near the bottom of the table. And Bitcoin is no longer being measured against gold at all. It’s being measured against REITs and small caps, the growth sleeve of a normal portfolio, and winning.

The timing is pointed too. The 10-year Treasury yields above 5% and JPMorgan’s global bond forecasts are the highest in two decades, and the bank still put Bitcoin on top.

A 10% compound return won’t make anyone rich on a Twitter timeline. But it’s now the highest number in JPMorgan’s book. The institutions that needed permission to model Bitcoin just got it. Now we wait for the market to catch up.

🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets

• Crypto majors are green up 2-4%, ZEC leads; BTC +2% at $83.4k; ETH +4% at $2,465; SOL +3% at $107; HYPE +4% at $81; ZEC +13% at $1,285
• Top alt movers include ENA (+12%), PYTH (+11%), NEAR (+11%) and VVV (+9%)
• Oil -10% at $99; Gold +0.2% at $4,150
• Stock futures are green as oil falls; DOW +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.6%
• Microsoft, Alphabet, Goldman Sachs, Qualcomm, Caterpillar, McDonald’s and Western Digital joined the list of companies objecting to tokenized versions of their shares trading on the OKX-ICE venue, taking the count from nine to 16 in four days
• Bitwise’s Q4 staking report shows Ethereum staking at a record 43.8 million ETH, or 35.9% of supply and roughly $106 billion at current prices, a sixth straight quarter of growth
• The CFTC set the agenda for its first Frontier Forum on October 28, examining how AI could reshape derivatives markets and how traders’ own AI agents might operate under existing rules
• Mastercard opened early access to Agent Pay for Machines, letting AI agents discover services and pay for them within human-set spending caps
• Wallets tied to April’s $295.7 million Drift exploit moved 25,700 ETH worth about $61.6 million into Tornado Cash over roughly two hours after two months of dormancy
• Zcash developers settled on block 3,543,405 for the NU7 upgrade, expected around November 5, cutting block times from 75 seconds to 25 and shutting down Sprout, the original privacy pool, permanently

Corporate Treasuries & ETFs

• The Bitcoin ETFs saw $23M in net inflows on Monday; the ETH ETFs lost $26M in net outflows

Meme Coin Tracker

• Meme leaders were mostly green; DOGE +4%, SHIB +4%, PEPE +9%, PENGU +8%, TRUMP +8%, SPX +7%, BONK +7%
• Robinhood chain leaders were mixed; Pons +10% to $195M; AI +20% at $90M; Cashcat +12% at $115M; Orbio +85%, Hookr +20%, Boner +25% and Priors +33% led top movers
• Solana top movers included KIMCHI +650x to $30M, Pill +280% to $2.4M, and Stonk +23%; Ansem +10% at $100M

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

• Papertrade led onchain protocols in revenue on the day with $2.5M followed by Pump.fun at $2.18M and Hyperliquid at $1.92M
• Pump.fun introduced Kimchi as its latest app partner and rolled out a new ad campaign “pill your friends” around the launch
• Collector Crypt posted record numbers across the board after plugging into Pump.fun’s distribution, with 106,023 packs opened in a single day (double its previous record) generating more than $22 million in gross revenue, while daily active users jumped six-fold from 1,000 to over 6,200 and unique wallets holding at least one tokenized collectible crossed 20,000 for the first time
• OpenSea rolled its mobile app out to everyone for the first time after a closed beta

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

• NFT leaders were mostly green; Punks +4% at 31.3 ETH, BAYC +8% at 5.99 ETH, Pudgy +2% at 2.45 ETH
• Invisible Friends (+150%), Good Vibes Club (+36%) and Statements (+41%) led top movers; Fidenza +20%