What fun would the Iowa Hawkeyes be if they made things easy and straightforward? That would take half the fun out of this whole thing! We saw chaos across the college football world create a College Football Playoff path for Iowa, so what about a quarterback controversy to boot?
One of the biggest takeaways from Iowa's Week 8 depth chart ahead of a Big Ten showdown against Minnesota for the Floyd of Rosedale is that Iowa listed Hank Brown OR Jeremy Hecklinski as the starter, just like when we started the season. I think we have our answer. We just need to find it.
First things first, we need to look at the stats. That's the most basic starting point for figuring out who is going to start for the Hawkeyes this week. Both quarterbacks have put up good performances, but that doesn't mean there isn't a lot of improvement still to be had.
Important Stats
Hank Brown: 78-for-124, 62.9%, 832 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT, 16 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD
Jeremy Hecklinski: 32-for-51, 62.7%, 410 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT, 5 rushing yards
Sheer stats don't tell us the full story. To get a true picture of not just the numbers these guys are putting up, but how they are doing it, we have to look at some situational statistics.
Iowa, a team bound to play in close games, can look at downs and distances, as those usually retain consistent play-calling for most of the game as opposed to overly heavy run or pass outliers.
First Down Fun
Peeling back the curtain a bit behind those numbers, as Hecklinski only has one full game under his belt, there are some trends that stand out to me. First, Hecklinski has been elite on first downs. He is 14-for-17 (82.4%) for 166 yards and three touchdowns on first downs.
That is downright elite for his limited action. It's a huge weapon for Tim Lester and Iowa's offense, which is known for wanting to run the ball. First downs often present the opportunity to see base coverages, and Hecklinski is lighting them up when given the chance.
Pressure Packed Performer
Flipping the script, third down falls to Hank Brown in a big way. Hecklinski is completing just 38.5% of his third-down attempts, while Brown is just under 60%, having gone 17-for-29 for 197 yards on must-have-it downs.
Throwing when defenses know it's coming gets that much harder. For some context as to how Hank Brown compares there: he has a higher third-down completion percentage than Drew Mestemaker and Julian Sayin, two of the leading passers in the country.
Who gets the nod at quarterback?
Let's just rip this band-aid off. Hank Brown is who I am predicting will get the start for the Iowa Hawkeyes when they take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Last week on KXNO, the Iowa Sports Radio Network, I said I thought Jeremy Hecklinski would get the start. Hand up. I've flipped.
I truly believe this is closer than things were early in the year, when Iowa was going through its quarterback competition. Jeremy Hecklinski played very well and gave the offense a shot in the arm with his live arm and energy, but I can't get past the fact that Hank Brown led Iowa to a 4-1 start.
That's not the only prediction, though. I am also predicting that we will see Jeremy Hecklinski in the first quarter of this game. It could be getting a series, Tim Lester having a package for him, or Hank Brown looking rusty and Kirk Ferentz having a quick hook.
Regardless, Jeremy Hecklinski is going to make one or two big plays in this game for Iowa. I feel confident counting on that.
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