Research & Developments is a blog for brief updates that provide context for the flurry of news regarding law and policy changes that impact science and scientists today.
Last week, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) released a report suggesting that the plan for NOAA’s next generation of geostationary satellites, called GeoXO, could “put vital observations at risk.”
NOAA currently has four geostationary satellites in orbit—the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R) series—which monitor more than half the globe from 22,236 miles (35,785 kilometers) above Earth’s equator. Two are operational, and two serve as backups. These satellites provide a wealth of data that improve hurricane and storm forecasting, monitor smoke and dust, improve aviation route planning, provide advanced warning of lightning hazards, and monitor space weather, to name a few benefits.
GeoXO, short for Geostationary Extended Observations, is intended to replace the GOES-R series. NOAA’s initial plan was for GeoXO to include six satellites and five instruments, at a projected lifecycle cost of $19.6 billion. However, after being directed to cut costs by the Department of Commerce, NOAA’s new plan includes just four satellites, two instruments, and a lifecycle cost of $13 billion.
Some felt that the cuts were not made for purely financial reasons.
“OMB’s motives were hardly subtle: the goal was to deprive NOAA’s satellites of the capability to collect scientific data that would inform the American people about the reality of climate change in our world,” wrote Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) and Rep. (D-RI) in a letter to NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs earlier this week.
GAO’s Report
The GAO reviewed the GeoXO program in response to a request from members of Congress.
The resulting report outlined several problems with the program’s diminished budget.
For instance, the GAO report suggests that the scheduled first launch of a GeoXO satellite in 2032 creates “a risk of a gap in the continuity of satellite data.” NOAA’s policy, the report states, requires that at least two operational satellites and one spare be available. On this schedule, the current spare satellite would stop being operational months before the first GeoXO satellite is fully up and running.
The new version of the GeoXO program also eliminates three instruments originally planned for:
- An updated version of the existing lightning mapper, which could improve thunderstorm and tornado warnings and tropical storm diagnoses.
- An ocean color instrument, which could identify harmful algal blooms, monitor water quality, assess habitat and species protection efforts, and track oil spills.
- An atmospheric composition instrument, used for air quality monitoring and forecasting as well as monitoring emissions and airborne hazards.
The report also notes that the office has not yet completed an independent cost estimate for the new budget, making it “unclear whether the $13 billion estimate for the restructuring is reasonable.”
The GAO report, provided to the Department of Commerce, NOAA, and NASA last month and made public last week, recommends that the Secretary of Commerce ensure the NOAA administrator record the cost estimate for the new GeoXO program, update its contingency plants, and document a technology readiness assessment for each instrument.
It closes by noting that the program hasn’t yet incorporated lessons learned from prior satellite programs, particularly as it relates to contingency planning and assessing technical readiness.
“Without incorporating these lessons learned, the program may not meet cost, schedule, or performance goals, which could put vital weather observations at risk,” it reads.
Mike Henry, senior adviser to Knowledge for a Competitive America and former policy lead at UCAR, NASA, and the American Institute of Physics, noted that geostationary satellite data is used in many ways people may not realize, such as by builders and insurers to calculate the risk of damaging storms and ultimately the price of homes.
“Cutting the planned constellation in half and removing tools like the lightning mapper would leave us with a next generation of satellites with less capability than what’s in orbit today. Congress should restore the full Geo-XO constellation in FY27 appropriations and protect the weather enterprise that American industries depend on,” he said in a statement.
—Emily Gardner (@emfurd.bsky.social), Deputy Editor
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