KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia faces the risk of medicine supply disruptions, with imported products accounting for 61.24 per cent of the pharmaceutical market by value in 2025, according to MBSB Research.
In its healthcare sector research note, the research arm of MBSB Investment Bank said the country's overall reliance on foreign sources for finished pharmaceutical products and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) was estimated at about 80 per cent.
Malaysia's pharmaceutical imports reportedly increased from between RM3.5 billion and RM4.5 billion in 2015 to RM12 billion last year.
China and India were identified as the main sources, supplying between 80 and 85 per cent of bulk synthetic APIs, starting materials and complex generic powders.
MBSB Research said the high dependence exposed the country's healthcare system to international logistics disruptions, geopolitical conflicts and raw material shortages.
It added that geopolitical tensions and congestion along shipping routes in 2026 had driven up the prices of imported medicines and APIs by as much as 50 per cent.
The report summed up the situation as: "Access without security creates a fragile system."
Local manufacturers also face risks as their operations remain dependent on imported APIs, despite producing generic tablets, syrups and injectable medicines domestically.
Supply pressures are expected to intensify as Malaysia moves towards becoming an ageing nation by 2036, alongside a rise in non-communicable diseases.
These include diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular diseases and neurodegenerative disorders.
The demographic shift is expected to create sustained demand for maintenance medicines, biologics, biosimilars and specialised therapies.
MBSB Research defined medicine security as "a resilient system that ensures the right medicine reaches the right patient at the right time — today and in the future".
It said the framework for medicine security encompassed availability, affordability, quality, safety, sustainability and supply resilience.
To strengthen national supplies, the report outlined four key strategies: MyMedSecure, a six-month early warning system, a Strategic Medicine Buffer and the Malaysia National Health Security Action Plan 2025-2030.
Under the early warning system, which became mandatory on July 1, 2026, all product registration holders are required to notify the National Pharmaceutical Regulatory Agency (NPRA) at least six months in advance of potential supply shortages or product discontinuations, the note said.
However, MBSB Research said details on compliance rates, the number of notifications received and enforcement actions had not been disclosed.
The Strategic Medicine Buffer was described as a rolling reserve equivalent to three to six months of the country's baseline medicine consumption.
It would cover critical medicines, including diabetes treatments, cardiovascular drugs, essential antibiotics, emergency analgesics and paediatric formulations.
The reserve would operate on a first-expiry, first-out basis, with medicines nearing their expiry dates dispensed first to minimise wastage.
The government's commitment to medicine procurement reportedly increased by 8.3 per cent, from RM6 billion in 2025 to RM6.5 billion in 2026.
MBSB Research also projected Malaysia's pharmaceutical market to expand from RM15.7 billion in 2025 to more than RM21.4 billion by 2030.
Growth is expected to be driven by generic medicines and biosimilars, which are projected to expand by between 12 and 14 per cent annually.
However, it cautioned that maintaining medicine reserves for several months would require substantial working capital, cold-chain facilities and stringent inventory management.
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