Keep Score With Me Against Baylor as TCU Looks to Break the Script

TCU has had two weeks between games to get ready for Baylor.

Two weeks to study film, correct mistakes, get players healthy and figure out why an offense that has shown flashes of being dangerous has struggled to put points on the board against quality competition.

Now comes the part that matters.

Showing us something actually changed.

The Frogs enter Saturday’s rivalry game at 2-3 overall and 0-2 in Big 12 play. Baylor is 4-1 and 2-0 in conference play. The Bears have won four straight, including a 55-19 victory over Arizona State.

Both teams had a bye last weekend, so neither has an excuse for being unprepared.

TCU has scored just 23 combined points in its last two games against UCF and BYU.

I don’t expect TCU to show up in Waco with an entirely new offense. I don’t think that’s what the Frogs need, either.

I want to see them execute the one they already have.

This week’s Keep Score With Me has three tests. The first two focus on how TCU’s defense handles Baylor quarterback DJ Lagway and the Bears’ offense, especially in the situations that decide football games.

The third might be our most important test of the season.

We’re going to find out whether TCU’s offense actually fixed anything during its week off.

Grab something to write with. Let’s get started.

Test No. 1 — Can TCU Break Baylor’s Opening Script?

Your assignment: Watch Baylor’s first 15 offensive plays and see whether TCU can disrupt its rhythm.

Here’s something most casual fans don’t think about.

A lot of offensive coordinators enter games with their first 10 to 15 plays scripted, or at least a prepared menu of plays they want to call early.

Those plays are designed to establish rhythm, see how a defense reacts and help the quarterback settle into the game.

He gets an easy completion. Then another. Maybe a quick throw outside, a screen or a run-pass option.

Before you know it, he’s comfortable, the offense has momentum and the coordinator is calling plays with confidence.

That’s exactly what I don’t want TCU to allow against DJ Lagway.

Lagway isn’t some freshman seeing college football for the first time. He started 19 games at Florida before transferring to Baylor.

Against Arizona State, he completed 25 of 40 passes for 306 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. He also scored a rushing touchdown.

That’s a quarterback who can hurt you in more than one way.

The best way to disrupt a quarterback isn’t always to sack him.

Sometimes it’s taking away his first read. Sometimes it’s forcing him to hold the football an extra second. Sometimes it’s turning third-and-two into third-and-eight.

When I played linebacker, we wanted quarterbacks uncomfortable. We wanted them thinking instead of reacting.

That’s what I’m watching Saturday.

How to keep score

Watch Baylor’s first 15 offensive plays that count in the official statistics. Skip special teams plays and plays wiped out by penalties.

Give TCU one point each time the defense:

• Holds Baylor to three yards or fewer on first-and-10.
• Records a tackle for loss or sack.
• Stops Baylor short of a first down or touchdown on third down.
• Creates a turnover.

Count each play only once, even if it meets multiple conditions. A play that gives Baylor a first down or touchdown does not earn TCU a point.

TCU disruption score: _____ / 15

That’s it.

When those 15 plays are over, ask yourself whether Lagway looked comfortable or whether TCU forced him to work for everything.

The goal isn’t to stop Baylor from calling its opening script.

It’s to make the damn script stop working.

Test No. 2 — Can TCU Win the Short-Yardage Situations?

Your assignment: Watch Baylor’s third-and-short plays and any fourth-down attempts that follow.

I’ve always believed there’s a difference between playing good defense and playing winning defense.

You can make a lot of impressive plays during a football game and still lose the situations that decide it.

A defense might hold an offense to two yards on first down, force an incompletion on second down, then give up a third-and-eight conversion.

All that good work just disappeared.

Short-yardage football

Every time Baylor faces third-and-three or less, pay attention.

These are some of my favorite plays to watch because both teams know exactly what’s at stake.

The offense knows it doesn’t need much.

The defense knows it cannot afford to give up much.

Now it comes down to execution.

That’s one of the things TCU needs to show against Baylor: the ability to finish the job when a stop is within reach.

How to keep score

Pretty simple.

If TCU stops Baylor short of a first down or touchdown on third-and-short, the Frogs get one point. If Baylor converts, the Bears get one point.

If Baylor goes for it on the ensuing fourth down, we’re giving out another point.

If Baylor converts, the Bears get it. If TCU stops them again, the Frogs get it.

TCU keeps its point for the original third-down stop regardless of what happens on fourth down.

Use the final result after any accepted penalty. A replayed down earns neither team a point.

No need to overcomplicate it.

Stopping somebody on third-and-short is good defense.

Stopping them on third-and-short and then again on fourth down? That’s damn good defense. That’s how you get off the field and win football games.

Test No. 3 — Did TCU’s Offense Fix the Basics During the Bye?

Your assignment: Watch TCU’s offense for evidence that the bye week actually accomplished something.

This is the test I’m most interested in.

TCU’s defense has done enough at times to keep the Frogs competitive.

The offense has shown it can move the football through the air, but it hasn’t consistently combined that production with an effective running game, discipline and ball security.

Those are different problems, and they require different corrections.

The numbers entering the Baylor game put that offense under the microscope.

At some point, you have to stop telling everybody what went wrong and start showing them what you’ve done to fix it.

So what should improvement look like?

Not necessarily a new formation or some fancy play nobody’s ever seen before.

I’m talking about the basics.

Get lined up correctly. Know your assignment. Catch the football. Protect the football. Block the right damn guy.

Those are things that should improve when a team has two weeks to prepare.

TCU doesn’t have to be perfect Saturday.

But Baylor should have to earn its stops.

How to keep score

We’re tracking three types of offensive mistakes:

1. Formation, motion and pre-snap penalties: False starts, illegal formations, illegal shifts, illegal motion and delay of game.
2. Execution mistakes: Obvious dropped passes, mishandled snaps or exchanges, and clear missed assignments.
3. Turnovers: Interceptions and lost fumbles.

Give TCU one mark for each mistake. Count each mistake only once. If a mishandled exchange becomes a lost fumble, put it in the turnover column rather than counting it in both categories.

Don’t worry about trying to identify every missed blocking assignment from your television. Sometimes a defender comes through untouched because of the defensive call, not because somebody screwed up.

We’re looking for the obvious mistakes that should have been corrected during the bye week.

When the game is over, look at your scorecard and ask yourself one question.

Did Baylor stop TCU, or did TCU stop itself?

There’s no magic number that guarantees a win. What matters is whether the offense looks cleaner, more organized and more dependable than it did before the bye week.

The bye week wasn’t supposed to give TCU a new offense.

It was supposed to give TCU a better-executed one.

Your TCU vs Baylor Scorecard

Here’s everything you need to track Saturday. Have it ready before kickoff, and use our TCU vs. Baylor viewing guide for TV and streaming details.

For Tests No. 1 and No. 2, TCU wants more defensive points. For Test No. 3, fewer mistake marks are better.

Don’t worry about predicting the final score.

I want you to watch the game differently.

Watch whether TCU can take Baylor out of its comfort zone early.

Watch whether the Frogs can execute defensively when the situation demands it.

Most importantly, watch whether the offense looks like a group that spent two weeks identifying its problems and actually doing something about them.

This isn’t just another rivalry game. It’s the first opportunity to see whether the lessons from the first five games have turned into improvements.

I’m not asking for a perfect football team.

I’m asking for one that shows me it’s learning.

You don’t prove you fixed something by talking about it. You prove it by not making the same damn mistake again.

Keep score with me Saturday.

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