Karen Bass desperately needs the voters who hate her most — and Spencer Pratt may hold the key

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Spencer Pratt lost his home in the Palisades Fire. Then he ran for mayor on one message: Karen Bass failed the Palisades.

More than 200,000 voters believed him. Now the mayor’s political life is in their hands.

Pratt didn’t mince words. He accused city leaders of “criminal negligence.” He said they “let us burn.” On the debate stage he called Bass “an incredible liar,” and afterward he described standing next to her as being near “a real life monster.”

He came up short in June, overtaken for the second runoff spot by Nithya Raman in the late count. But the Pratt people didn’t disappear. In less than two weeks, they will decide whether they despise the mayor more than they fear the socialist trying to replace her.

The new California Post survey, conducted Oct. 15-18 by McLaughlin & Associates among 400 likely voters, has the headline numbers Opinion editor Joel Pollak laid out yesterday: Raman 46.7%. Bass 38.8%. Undecided 13.5%. Another 1% had already voted but refused to say for whom. Bass’s disapproval rating is 71.7%.

But the real story is the 13.5% who remain undecided. As with any subgroup, the precise figures are less certain than the poll as a whole.

Nearly two-thirds of them voted for Donald Trump. Among all likely voters, just 16% are registered Republicans. Among the undecideds, it’s 43%.

A majority call themselves conservative. Two-thirds view Spencer Pratt favorably. These are Pratt people.

And they can’t stand either candidate. Fully 92% view Bass unfavorably, and 73% very unfavorably.

Raman fares better but is still deeply underwater with them, at 73% unfavorable. Three in four dislike the Democratic Socialists of America, her political home.

Asked which candidate cares more about people like them, 90% answered “don’t know” or refused. Seventy-one percent say they have seriously considered leaving California, either now or within the past four years. Who could blame them?

The strange result is that Karen Bass has become the de facto Republican.

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She leads among registered Republicans 44% to 14% and Trump voters 45% to 14%. Conservatives back her 42% to 18%. Moderates, 55% to 28%.

Bass carries only the Westside/Harbor region, where she lost to Rick Caruso four years ago, 52% to 27%. The voters who rejected her in 2022 have become her base.

Her own party has moved on. Registered Democrats prefer Raman 59% to 37%. Very liberal voters go Raman 80% to 18%.

A remarkable 44% of Bass voters view her unfavorably. For many of those voting for Bass, theirs is plainly an anti-Raman vote.

Now do the math. To pull even, Bass needs roughly 80% of the undecided vote. Even if they broke for her 3-to-1, the way decided Republicans have, she would still trail.

And that assumes they bother to vote for mayor at all.

Turnout presents another problem. Asked whether they have concerns that California elections are fair and honest, 78% of the undecideds said yes, compared with 30% overall. Such voters may be harder to mobilize.

Asked what they like least about the mayor, their leading complaints include poor performance, dishonesty and the fires. They are not looking for a reason to rescue her.

Picture a family in the Palisades. Twenty-one months after the fire, they are still waiting to rebuild. They watched the mayor fly home from Ghana to a city in flames. In June, Pratt promised to make her answer for it. Now they must choose whether to keep her or hand City Hall to a democratic socialist.

Some will make that choice with their stomachs turning. Some won’t make it at all.

But their reservations about Raman are real, too. Their leading specific complaint is her socialism or DSA affiliation. Among those willing to name one candidate, they call Raman more extreme by 3-to-1.

So which is it? Hold your nose and keep a failed mayor to stop a socialist? Or leave the line blank and let Los Angeles become the West Coast’s answer to Zohran Mamdani’s New York?

Pratt has hardly been quiet with his contempt for both Bass and Raman. For months he has blasted both, calling them “two morons” and “corrupt communists” back in June.

And he isn’t about to throw the mayor a lifeline now. Responding to Pollak’s poll comments on X yesterday, Pratt wrote: “You just can’t win re-election when your record is as atrocious as Karen Bass. Nor should you.”

Back in January, he explained his candidacy by saying “nobody wants four more years of killing.” Yet the only way Karen Bass gets four more years is if the Pratt people hand them to her.

Karen Bass never needed these voters before. Now she can’t win without them.

Jon Fleischman, a longtime strategist in California politics, writes at SoDoesItMatter.com.