The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for Uzbekistan’s economic growth in 2026 and 2027. The revised estimates were presented in the October edition of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, published on 12 October.
According to the report, the fund raised its growth forecast for Uzbekistan from 6.8% to 7.8% for 2026 and from 6% to 6.5% for 2027. Under the revised estimates, the country’s economy could grow even faster this year than in 2025, when it expanded by 7.7%.
During its June consultations, the fund attributed Uzbekistan’s economic resilience to strong domestic demand, investment activity, remittances and favorable gold prices. Continued structural reforms were also cited as a driver of growth.
The new forecasts reflect higher expectations for the country’s economic performance, although the October report does not specify why the IMF revised its forecasts for Uzbekistan.
According to the National Statistics Committee, Uzbekistan’s economy grew by 8.5% in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period last year. Uzbekistan’s nominal GDP reached 1,072.7 trillion soums.
In its October forecast, the IMF expects average annual inflation in Uzbekistan to fall from 8.8% in 2025 to 6.9% in 2026 and 5.7% in 2027. Its June forecasts were 6.8% for 2026 and 5% for 2027.
These figures refer to average annual inflation, not the year-end inflation rate.
Unemployment is also expected to decline. After an estimated 4.8% in 2025, unemployment is projected to fall to 4.3% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027, according to the IMF.
At the same time, the fund revised upward its forecast for Uzbekistan’s current account deficit. The IMF projects the deficit to reach 5.1% of GDP in 2026 and 4.6% in 2027, compared with an estimated 3.9% in 2025.
In June, the IMF expected the deficit to narrow to 3.2% of GDP in 2026 and reach 3.6% in 2027.
A current account deficit occurs when a country’s payments to the rest of the world for goods and services, primary income and secondary income exceed its receipts from abroad.
The World Bank had also raised its forecast for Uzbekistan’s GDP growth, from 6.4% to 7.9% in 2026 and from 6.7% to 7.5% in 2027. Growth is being supported by rising wages and employment, as well as remittances and investment, according to the bank’s latest report.