President Donald Trump’s approval rating remains low in Senate battlegrounds as Democrats and Republicans are engaged in a tight battle for control the upper chamber of Congress just two weeks before the midterm elections.
Republicans are facing headwinds as they defend their majority, where they currently hold 53 seats to the Democrats’ 47. Trump’s approval rating, as well as voters’ views about the economy, have fueled a challenging national environment for the GOP two years after Trump’s victory in 2024.
Why Trump’s Approval Rating Matters for the Midterms
Historically, when the president is unpopular, his party loses seats in the midterms, and Democrats have been favored to retake the House this year. But the Senate has long been seen as a heavier lift. The Maine and North Carolina Senate seats were seen as clear pickups, but no other Republican-held seats were up for grabs in states Trump won by a single-digit margin or lost in 2024.
As Trump’s approval rating has fallen, the Senate map has expanded for Democrats. The Cook Political Report lists seven races—Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas—as toss-ups.
Trump’s approval rating is underwater in all of those states, according to Civiqs, which has tracked it in every state since the start of second term in January 2025. Whether or not those numbers improve over the next two weeks could play a role in the outcome of those races.
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Presidential approval is “one of the largest factors [if not the largest factor] driving voter behavior in a midterm election,” Jacob Neiheisel, political science professor at the University at Buffalo, told Newsweek.
Neiheisel said he believes Trump’s poor approval numbers has given Democrats the ability to compete in tougher states.
“In ‘wave’ elections, the out-party can play on the in-party's side of the field and win rates even in what are, from all outward appearances, safe seats are lower in such years,” he said.
Many of those races appear to be close, he said, noting that “a good night for Democrats could mean walking away with quite a few of the toss-up Senate seats.”
Whether or not the polls are off, however, will not be known until Election Day, he said.
“They have been in recent presidential contests but have been pretty good in midterm races," he said. "There is always a chance, however, that they are missing something.”
What Is Donald Trump’s Approval Rating?
Trump’s approval ratings have created a headache for Republicans in the final stretch of the campaign, as candidates are making their final pitches to voters.
A recent poll from Reuters and Ipsos revealed where Trump’s approval stood nationally. It found that his net approval rating was at -35 points, 31 percent approving and 66 percent disapproving, among 1,679 adults October 16-19, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.
Trump has criticized such polls. On August 30, he posted on Truth Social: “THE FAKE POLLS USED BY OUR CROOKED MEDIA ARE OUT OF CONTROL, AND SOMETHING MUST BE DONE ABOUT IT. FCC TO THE RESCUE! President DJT.”
While Democrats believe they may be able to flip the Senate, there is always the possibility of a polling error that could benefit Republicans. In recent cycles, polling has not always been accurate. Republicans have at times overperformed polling averages in key races. Polling errors are not necessarily repeated from cycle to cycle, but a similar error this cycle would not bode well for Democrats’ chances of flipping the Senate.
Here is a look at where Trump’s approval rating stands in key races, according to Civiqs.
Alaska
Although Trump won Alaska by about 13 points in 2024, his approval rating was -12 points—52 percent to 40 percent—in the latest numbers from Civiqs.
Alaska has become less solidly conservative over the past few decades. As Democrats gain ground in cities like Anchorage and Fairbanks, Republicans’ statewide margins have narrowed from 31 points in 2000 to about 13 points in 2024 in presidential elections. GOP Senator Dan Sullivan is facing a challenge from former Representative Mary Peltola, the Democrat who represented the state's at-large district from 2022 to 2025.
The latest polls show a close race. Peltola led by 2 points, 50 percent to 48 percent, in a survey from InsiderAdvantage conducted October 9-10 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
A survey from The New York Times and Siena University showed Peltola up 7 points, 50 percent to 43 percent. It surveyed 504 likely voters September 24-October 1, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.
Trump recently campaigned in Alaska, and Sullivan has been supportive of the president. In an October 13 post to Truth Social, Trump described Sullivan as “one of the best and most respected” senators.
Sullivan praised Trump in an October 13 post on X: “President Trump is the first president EVER to visit the Mat-Su Valley. If we turn out the Valley, then we turn out Alaska. And if we win Alaska, then we win America.”
Iowa
Trump’s approval rating in Iowa was -22 points, according to Civiqs, despite him winning the state by around 13 points in 2024. Thirty-four percent of Iowans approve of Trump, while 56 percent disapprove, according to the poll.
Iowa was a battleground, backing President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, before shifting rightward over the past decade, voting for Trump in all three of his presidential runs.
Trump has become a major issue in the race between Republican Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek. In Iowa, farmers stand to face impacts from Trump's tariffs and high diesel prices, as agriculture is a key part of the state’s economy.
Turek was up 47 percent to 46 percent in a recent YouGov poll of 2,245 likely voters conducted October 6-12. However, an Emerson College poll showed Hinson with a 2-point lead, 47 percent to 45 percent, among 650 likely voters October 5-6. The YouGov poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, while Emerson's was 3.8.
Hinson has walked a fine line on Trump and has put some distance between herself and the president on the issue of the Iran war.
“Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran. We need to use every option at our disposal to provide some relief from high prices,” she wrote on September 21 on X.
Trump has endorsed Hinson and is expected to visit Iowa.
Kansas
The Kansas race has become closer than initially expected. GOP Senator Roger Marshall has faced a series of close polls against Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton, and Trump has campaigned in Kansas to give Marshall a boost.
Kansans were more split on Trump, with 46 percent disapproving and 45 percent approving, according to Civiqs. Trump won Kansas by about 16 points against former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.
Marshall led Hamilton 48 percent to 47 percent in the latest InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters October 13-14. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
Meanwhile, Hamilton held a 3-point lead in a YouGov poll of 2,253 likely voters September 24-October 4, with 48 percent support to the Republican’s 45 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
Marshall has touted his support from Trump, with his campaign previously telling Newsweek that he is a “president who is second to none at getting out the vote.”
Maine
In Maine, Senator Susan Collins is the only Republican running for reelection in a state that Trump lost in 2024, and she is facing difficult headwinds. Still, she has been able to make a close race due to her personal popularity and moderate image. She faces Democrat Troy Jackson, the former president of the Maine Senate.
Harris won Maine by 7 points in 2024. Two years later, Trump is 33 points underwater there, according to Civiqs. Only 30 percent of Mainers approve of Trump, while 63 percent disapprove.
Collins has never been a particularly close Trump ally and has touted her record on breaking with Trump, such as voting down the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and some Cabinet nominees like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. However, Democrats have argued that she votes against him when her vote does not tip the scales.
During a recent debate, Collins said she is “not exactly his favorite senator” when asked about whether Trump plans to visit Maine before the November 3 election.
Collins’ reelection largely rests on her ability to win over ticket-splitters who backed Harris in 2024.
A Suffolk University poll gave Jackson a 2-point lead, 49 percent to 47 percent. It surveyed 500 Maine voters October 8-11 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Jackson was up 4 points among 800 likely voters in a poll from The Washington Post and George Mason University, conducted September 30-October 5. Fifty percent said they planned to vote for Jackson, while 46 percent intended to back Collins. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Michigan
Michigan is the only Democratic-held Senate seat in the toss-up column. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican former Representative Mike Rogers are running to succeed retiring Democrat Gary Peters in a swing state Trump narrowly won in 2024.
Trump is now less popular in Michigan, with 33 percent of voters approving of him and 61 percent disapproving, according to Civiqs.
Democrats have hoped that the national environment would benefit them in swing states like Michigan, but polls have suggested the race is close. Republicans hope to cast El-Sayed, a progressive endorsed by independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Democratic New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, as too far left for a more moderate state.
Rogers is another Republican who has been more willing to break with Trump. He has spoken out against Trump’s trade war with Canada and has called for an end to the Iran war.
El-Sayed led by 4 points in a survey from Mitchell Research & Communications, 45.6 percent to 41.4 percent. It polled 682 likely voters October 1 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
A Fox News poll showed an even closer race, giving El-Sayed just a 1-point lead, 50 percent to 49 percent. It was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research from September 24-28 among 1,028 likely voters. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Ohio
Ohio, like Iowa, is a former midwestern battleground that has become more conservative in recent years but appears to be more competitive in this year’s elections.
Trump won Ohio by about 11 points in 2024 but is now 21 points underwater, with 36 percent approving and 57 percent disapproving of him, per Civiqs.
Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance, is facing a challenge from Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown, who represented the state for nearly two decades before losing reelection in 2024.
Brown held a 4-point lead in a Marist University poll, 48 percent to 44 percent, among 1,176 likely voters October 15-18, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
An ActiVote poll, which surveyed 400 likely voters September 26-October 18, showed the two candidates tied at 50 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Husted has campaigned with Trump, though he has broken with the president in some instances, including voting against the anti-weaponization fund and calling for a quick end to the Iran war.
Texas
Texas’ reputation as a conservative stronghold is at risk as GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton faces a competitive challenge from Democratic state Representative James Talarico.
Trump won Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024, but his approval has fallen to -21 points, with 36 percent approving and 57 percent disapproving, according to Civiqs.
Paxton is a close Trump ally, and the president boosted his primary challenge against longtime Republican Senator John Cornyn by giving him an endorsement. Trump has rallied behind Paxton, and the MAGA Inc. PAC, which is aligned with the president, has invested heavily in the race as polls show Talarico with a slight edge.
A YouGov poll showed Talarico up 2 points, 51 percent to 49 percent, among 1,458 likely voters October 8-16. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
A poll from the University of Houston also gave Talarico a 2-point lead, 48 percent to 46 percent, among 2,000 likely voters October 10-14, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.19 percentage points.
Democrats’ Chances of Flipping the Senate, Two Weeks Before Election Day
Democrats have emerged as favorites in prediction markets.
On Kalshi, Democrats had a 63 percent chance of winning a majority on Tuesday, while they had a 65 percent chance on Polymarket.
Prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real-money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always predict the future accurately.
What Happens Next
Trump’s approval rating will remain closely watched as an important gauge of the electorate’s mood in the final stretch of campaign season.
His approval could be shaped by issues like the economy and cost of living over the coming weeks, as candidates continue to make their final pitches to voters ahead of the midterms.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Dave Siminoff.