With less than two weeks until Election Day, the latest polls suggest Democrats could make significant gains in next month’s midterms, including in traditionally red states where they have not been competitive for years.
Republicans were always expected to face pressure in November, as the party in power has historically suffered midterm losses.
But the recent rise in inflation, driven mainly by disruptions to the global oil market caused by the ongoing war in Iran, has turbocharged voter discontent and made an already difficult electoral environment even more perilous for Republicans.
President Donald Trump is not on the ballot, though his influence on the party remains enormous. But the president himself is losing ground with voters, with his approval rating dropping to 36 percent this month in a poll by the New York Times/Siena College, the lowest on record.
Facing a potential midterm nightmare, Trump has been touring red states in support of Republican candidates, wielding both carrot and stick ahead of November. He has promised hefty payouts if Republicans retain control of Congress, while threatening federal cuts to some states if they lose it.
Newsweek contacted the White House for comment by email on Thursday morning.
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No Additional FEMA Funding for North Carolina’s Hurricane Helene Recovery
During a rally in Gastonia, North Carolina, on Friday, the president discussed additional federal disaster-recovery funding expected to flow to the western part of the state as communities continue rebuilding from Hurricane Helene two years after the deadly storm.
In what he later referred to as a joke, he suggested the money still to come might be conditional to Republican Michael Whatley’s victory against Democrat Roy Cooper in the state’s Senate race.
“We spent more than $2 billion in FEMA funding. You know, you’re waiting for some additional money,” Trump said. “And I’m gonna get that to you, Michael. Now if Michael loses, I’m not sending it, OK?”
He immediately added: “No, I’m only kidding. You’re getting it.”
North Carolina Gov. Josh Stein condemned Trump’s comment, writing on X: “This is no way to respond to a tragic disaster, no way to run a country, no way to campaign for office.”
While he insisted the remarks were made in jest, Trump has previously denied $227 million in disaster funding requests from four Democratic-led states, including New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Massachusetts.
Newsweek contacted Cooper’s campaign for comment by email on Thursday morning.
‘No Money’ for North Carolina’s Camp Lejeune Victims
In another campaign rally on Tuesday, the president again tied federal funding to the outcomes of North Carolina’s Senate and House races, this time suggesting compensation for veterans and families affected by contaminated water at Camp Lejeune will depend on Republicans winning the elections.
“If we win the House and Senate, I am directing the Department of Justice to settle all remaining legitimate claims as soon as possible and get it off the books and get it finished,” the president told supporters in Greenville.
“So, if we don’t win, there’s no money. If we do win, you’re getting it. It’s gonna be finally over with that nightmare that’s been going on for so many years. We will never abandon the heroes who served America.”
On this occasion, he did not add that the threat was just a joke.
As many as one million people—including Marines, their families and civilian employees—at the base in Jacksonville drank and bathed in heavily contaminated water between August 1, 1953, and December 31, 1987.
Thousands of victims affected by the contaminated water have applied for compensation, with the Department of Justice overseeing their claims’ payout.
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Year-Round E15 Ethanol Fuel Sales in Kansas, Only If Marshall Wins
Just one day before the Greenville rally, Trump dangled the prospect of year-round E15 sales in Kansas, promising expanded access to the cheaper fuel blend, typically restricted during the summer over environmental concerns—but only if Republican Senator Roger Marshall wins in November.
“I gave Kansas a waiver to sell E15 all year round. With Roger Marshall in the Senate, we will make year-round E15 permanent,” Trump said during a rally in Park City on Monday. “But if Adam Hamilton is in, I’m not doing it. That’s it. I’m only doing it for him.”
Hamilton spokesperson Tyler Brody hit back at Trump’s remarks, telling NBC News: “Blackmailing Kansans for our votes is Washington at its worst. We deserve leaders who work for all Kansans, no matter what political party we’re in. Roger Marshall has been in Congress for ten years and never passed year-round E15.”
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During the same rally, Trump also unveiled a new $8 billion “harvest fuel relief program” which the Department of Agriculture would provide to farmers struggling with higher diesel prices.
Newsweek contacted Marshall’s campaign for comment by email on Thursday morning.
No More Federal ‘Help’ for Ohio
At a rally in Vandalia, Ohio, on October 3, Trump said that he would be less willing to send federal money to the state if Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton wins in November.
“Just get out and vote,” Trump said at a rally at the Butler-Vandalia Student Activity Center for Republican candidates in the state, including many incumbents facing an uphill battle in November to keep their seats. “If you do that, we’re going to win, and we’re going to win big, and we’re going to shove it up their a**.”
Talking about the state, which is among eight U.S. Senate races rated competitive, Trump indicated that he now has a good relationship with the state’s GOP leadership, but that may change in the future if voters elect Democrats.
“Jon Husted…calls me all the time. He always wants money,” Trump said, referring to the Republican Senator running for re-election. “If Amy Acton got in, I don’t know anything about her,” he added, conflating the Senate race with the gubernatorial race, for which Acton is running as a Democrat against Trump’s ally Vivek Ramaswamy.
“I’m not going to help her, probably, she hates me, I guess,” Trump added, suggesting he would withhold federal funding from the state.
Newsweek contacted Acton’s campaign for comment by email on Thursday morning.
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$5,000 Payments to All U.S. Adults
Trump has also dangled the promise of $5,000 payouts for U.S. adults in front of voters if Republicans win both chambers in Congress in November, though economist Mark Zandi told Newsweek that this promise “appears highly unlikely” to “ever materialize.”
Even if the president were to deliver on this promise, given that Republicans manage to keep control of Congress, the payouts would not be enough to cover for the additional financial burden put on American households by the war in Iran.
“Not only do the Republicans need to hold onto Congress, which seems a stretch, but even if they do, it is unlikely they would agree to such a large, presumably deficit-financed tax break,” Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, said.
“And of course, this is a one-time check, and there is no telling when the war will end and energy prices recede.”
Midterm Voting
With less than two weeks until Election Day, early voting is underway in many states across the country, though not all have opened their polls yet.
Voting timelines vary widely by state, with some beginning as early as September and others waiting until the final days before the November 3 midterms.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Alfred Joyner, Gray R. Thomas