প্রতিবেদন লোড হচ্ছে…Serbia at a crossroads: What’s at stake and what Moscow can expect | Ayar News
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Serbia at a crossroads: What’s at stake and what Moscow can expect
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The October 25 parliamentary election comes after nearly two years of protests, with ties to Russia and the EU among the key issues
Serbia is heading into a snap parliamentary election on October 25 following nearly two years of anti-government protests sparked by a deadly railway station canopy collapse.
Former Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic is running for prime minister against a fragmented opposition seeking to capitalize on the protest movement. The result could reshape Serbia’s political landscape and its delicate balancing act between Russia and the EU.
What is Serbia voting for, and why does it matter?
Voters will elect 250 members of the National Assembly, with 126 seats needed for a majority. A total of 18 electoral lists, comprising 2,418 candidates, are contesting the election, including the ruling coalition, student-backed candidates, established opposition parties and representatives of national minorities.
The vote will test whether the protest movement can challenge the ruling coalition at the ballot box.
What led to the snap election?
The crisis began after a concrete canopy at the Novi Sad railway station collapsed on November 1, 2024, killing 16 people. Protesters blamed the disaster on alleged corruption and failures of government oversight.
Demonstrations intensified after students and lecturers involved in a vigil commemorating the disaster at Belgrade’s Faculty of Dramatic Arts on November 22, 2024 blocked traffic, prompting drivers to clash with the crowd; some of the motorists were later identified from photos posted online as Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) officials.
Students began blockading university faculties, demanding the release of documents relating to the station’s renovation, accountability for attacks on protesters, an end to the prosecution of detained demonstrators and increased funding for public universities.
The authorities said the demands had been met, but protesters disputed the claim.
Serbian Prime Minister Milos Vucevic resigned in January 2025 following another attack on students, but the protests continued. A major rally in Belgrade on March 15 attracted an estimated 275,000 to 325,000 people, according to the organization Arhiv javnih skupova.
Parliament elected a government headed by Djuro Macut in April, but the student movement demanded snap elections on May 5.
Vucic has accused foreign organizations and intelligence services of financing the protests, alleging on Thursday that outside actors were seeking to remove him from power.
Serbia was the victim of perhaps Europe’s first ‘color revolution’ in 2000, when the opposition, having received extensive funding and training from the National Democratic Institute (NDI), International Republican Institute (IRI), and USAID, as well as support from George Soros’ Open Society Foundations (operating in 2000 as the Fund for an Open Society – Yugoslavia), brought down the government.
Has Vucic lost power, or is he trying to hold on to it?
Vucic resigned as president on September 27, saying he intended to campaign in the parliamentary election without holding the presidency.
He now heads the ruling coalition’s electoral list and is running for prime minister.
Who is running, and who could form a government?
The ruling camp is led by the ‘Aleksandar Vucic – United Serbia’ coalition, built around the SNS. Its longstanding partner, Ivica Dacic’s Socialist Party of Serbia, is running separately under the ‘Factor of Stability’ banner.
The main challenger is the ‘Student List – Students Are Winning,’ which emerged from the protests and includes lecturers, professionals and public figures.
Marinika Tepic and Zdravko Ponos’s ‘European Serbia’ and Milos Jovanovic’s ‘Authentic Right’ are also running independently. Some opposition groups have backed the students rather than fielding their own candidates.
The latest opinion polls offer conflicting assessments of support for the two main contenders.
An Ipsos survey published on October 22 put Vucic’s coalition at 47.4%, compared with 40% for the Student List and 3.2% for Dacic’s Socialists. The poll surveyed 3,624 respondents between October 20 and 22.
Latest Serbia Ipsos Poll modelled out
🔵SNS: 125 seats
🔴STU: 105 seats
❤️SPS: 8 seats
🟦NADA: 0 seats
🟢SVM: 6 seats
💚SDAS: 2 seats
💠SPP: 2 seats
🔹KSLP: 1 seat
🟤RUS: 1 seat
🔵SNS largest party, 1 short of a majority https://t.co/9pjH9MA8Ts
A survey published on October 20 by Nova srpska politicka misao (NSPM) instead gave the Student List 44.5% and Vucic’s coalition 42.7% among decided respondents. The telephone survey of 1,050 people was conducted between September 25 and October 5.
Serbia, NSPM poll:
Student list-*: 45% (+5)
SNS+-EPP: 43% (+5)
SPS/JS~S&D: 3% (-2)
ES-S&D: 3% (-1)
NADA~ECR: 3% (+1)
+/- vs. July 2026
Fieldwork: 25 September - 05 October 2026
Sample size: 1,050
➤ https://t.co/ekzxpjD9df https://t.co/9EKrcxnWOe
An online survey published by Nacija TV on October 21 showed a much narrower gap, with Vucic’s coalition at 42.9% and the Student List at 42%. The poll surveyed 1,204 respondents between October 16 and 18.
An earlier Faktor Plus survey, published on September 21, put Vucic’s coalition at 48.6% and the Student List at 37.1%, based on 986 respondents interviewed between September 16 and 20.
National minority and smaller parties could become important in coalition negotiations if no major group wins a majority.
What unites the opposition, and what divides it?
The groups challenging Vucic differ on key foreign policy issues, particularly relations with the EU, NATO, and Russia.
The Student List has said it would maintain Serbia’s refusal to impose sanctions on Moscow. Its representative Jovo Bakic has proposed a referendum on EU membership and opposed joining NATO.
European Serbia supports alignment with EU foreign policy, including sanctions against Russia, a position advocated by Tepic.
Jovanovic opposes EU membership and sanctions against Moscow, while Socialist representative Snezana Paunovic supports EU accession but has criticized the bloc’s current policies.
Territorial tensions: Where do the parties stand on Kosovo and Republika Srpska?
Kosovo remains one of Serbia’s most sensitive political issues. The province declared independence in 2008, a move recognized by the US and many of its allies. Belgrade still considers Kosovo part of Serbia, as do Russia and China, and some 90 other countries.
The declaration followed NATO’s 1999 bombing campaign against Yugoslavia, conducted without authorization from the UN Security Council. Belgrade’s relations with the ethnic Albanian-led authorities in Pristina remain tense.
Successive SNS-led governments have refused to recognize the breakaway Kosovo while participating in EU-mediated negotiations with Pristina.
The Student List has also rejected recognizing the so-called Kosovo precedent. In a memorandum published in May, it described Kosovo as an integral part of Serbia and called for a negotiated settlement in accordance with the Serbian Constitution and international law.
Republika Srpska, the Serb-majority constituent entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina, whose autonomy is guaranteed under the 1995 Dayton peace agreement, is another touchstone.
Vucic has maintained close ties with its leadership while supporting Bosnia and Herzegovina’s territorial integrity. Former Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik has openly backed Vucic’s coalition, urging Serbian citizens living there to vote for it.
The Student List has sought support among Serbian voters in Republika Srpska but has not outlined a comparably detailed policy toward the entity. Some Bosnian Serb opposition politicians have backed the students, while others have refused to take sides.
Belgrade and Brussels: The beatings will continue
Serbia applied to join the EU in 2009 and received candidate status in 2012. Accession negotiations began in 2014, but no new negotiating chapters or clusters have been opened since 2021.
Brussels has made further progress toward EU membership conditional on the normalization of relations with Kosovo and alignment with the bloc’s foreign policy, including sanctions against Russia, as well as other judicial, media, and governmental reforms.
Serbia’s accession process has remained stalled while other candidates have moved forward. In July, eight EU member states opposed advancing talks with Belgrade, while Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine, and Moldova have made progress toward membership.
Vucic has expressed frustration with the slow pace of EU enlargement, warning in July that candidate countries should not expect major breakthroughs in the coming years.
EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos questioned Serbia’s commitment to membership in September, saying the country was at a crossroads and that further progress depended on the political direction chosen by its voters.
Kos has also warned against allowing prospective EU members to develop dependencies on outside powers that could conflict with the bloc’s interests.
“We should not risk our future members building dependencies on others that run counter to our long-term interest,” she said.
The commissioner identified Russia as an adversary in the enlargement process and criticized the influence of US President Donald Trump’s MAGA movement on European politics.
Vucic has maintained that Serbia intends to pursue EU membership while preserving its independent foreign policy.
What makes the ties between Serbia and Russia so strong?
Serbia and Russia share longstanding historical and cultural ties, reinforced by their Orthodox Christian traditions and Slavic heritage.
Relations were further shaped by NATO’s 78-day bombing campaign against Yugoslavia in 1999, which Moscow strongly opposed. Russia has since backed Belgrade’s position on Kosovo at the UN Security Council and refused to recognize the province’s independence.
Under Vucic, Serbia has maintained diplomatic and economic cooperation with Moscow while refusing to join Western sanctions over the Ukraine conflict.
In an interview with Russian journalist Ksenia Sobchak published on Tuesday, Vucic said European leaders regularly pressed him on the issue.
”We are not sitting on two chairs; our only chair is Serbia,” he said.
Do Russia and Serbia have an energy deal?
Energy remains central to the relationship. On September 30, Russia’s Gazprom extended its gas supply agreement with Serbia for another three months, until December 31, on unchanged terms, according to Srbijagas CEO Dusan Bajatovic.
The previous three-year contract expired in May 2025, with the two countries relying on short-term extensions since then.
Following talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in September, Vucic said Serbia was paying around €318 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas, compared with a market price of approximately €868 at the time.
The latest extension secures supplies through the beginning of winter but leaves arrangements for 2027 unresolved.
The future of NIS, which operates Serbia’s only oil refinery, also remains uncertain following US sanctions over its Russian majority ownership. Hungarian oil and gas company MOL has been negotiating the purchase of the Russian stake.
Serbia, however, maintains relations with Kiev and supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity, a position Vucic reaffirmed during an August meeting with Vladimir Zelensky. He has also said he would not object if Serbian ammunition sold to European buyers ultimately reached Ukraine, although he did not confirm direct deliveries to Kiev.
Where would each party take Serbia if they win?
Vucic has emphasized his determination to preserve Serbia’s sovereignty and keep the country out of a war with Russia, which he said he believes the EU is preparing for.
”I do not want Serbia to be part of that war, and I would not allow Serbia to be part of that war,” he said in an interview with TV Prva on Wednesday.
He accused Western governments of seeking to install politicians who would follow their instructions.
”They want to bring in people who will do as they are told, people who will be patted on the back, and everyone will be delighted,” Vucic said.
How could the election affect relations with Moscow?
The next Serbian government will face decisions on future Russian gas supplies, the ownership of NIS, and the country’s military exports.
Russian observers will monitor the election at Serbia’s invitation, according to Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. The delegation will include representatives of both chambers of the Russian parliament and the Central Election Commission, with Russian officials also participating in international monitoring missions.
Moscow has said it hopes to maintain close ties with Belgrade after the election. Zakharova described the relationship as rooted in “strong fraternal traditions, a shared worldview, and respect for genuine values.”
She added that “continuity in these ties will serve the national interests of both countries and help strengthen peace and stability in the Balkans.”
