Fantasy Football: The Jaguars, Bills, Chargers and Commanders will be on bye next week — and we have questions

I’ve mentioned it before, but I’m a (long-suffering) Bengals fan. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not so miserable that Sunday’s win has me mad online a few days later. But their performance left me with questions as they head into their bye. Plenty of which Joe Burrow noted as things they need to clean up before they get back on the field against Baltimore.

I just wish they could’ve checked a few of those boxes beforehand.

Thinking about Cincinnati’s next couple of weeks started me down the path of digging into this week. We’ll have four squads on break in Week 7, each with their own questions on offense that have been nagging fantasy managers over the weeks. Let’s at least get them on the table now.

Whether or not they get answered, well, if nothing else, we’ll know what to monitor.

Jacksonville – Who can we roster outside of Parker Washington?

If you’re rostering Parker Washington, I’m guessing your answer would be no one. I get it. I have him on a couple of teams and would prefer Washington’s treatment from last Sunday in every game. Besides, as we’ve discussed before, there aren’t a lot of attempts to go around in Duval County:

• Pass Rate Over Expectation: -3.2%, 24th 

• Dropbacks per Game: 31.6, 26th 

• Air Yards per Game: 229.0, 19th 

Trevor Lawrence’s (albeit mild) aggression as a passer, at 8.0 air yards per attempt, has been our savior. He’s tied for sixth in completion rate with the third-most TDs on deep balls. Half of those have gone to Washington. When Lawrence has been under duress, a third of his attempts go in the same direction. Basically, they’re trying to make the whole plane out of a guy who’s looking for a new contract. But when Lawrence has needed to involve other pass-catchers, a common name popped up. 

Before you ask, no, I’m not advocating that you go out and add Josh Cameron (in dynasty formats, yes!). I used this clip to highlight Lawrence’s use of the middle of the field. But, honestly, that’s nothing new. 

Lawrence throwing to the MoF on 49.4% of his dropbacks was the 11th-highest rate in ’25. He’s at 53.4% through five weeks. But as he’s gotten more comfortable with the scheme, his efficiency on these throws has almost doubled (0.28 EPA per att. to 0.49). Over the last three weeks, Brenton Strange has led the Jaguars’ pass-catchers in targets in this area of the field (26.3%). But if his usage in a single area of the field isn’t enough, his profile since Week 3 is more encouraging.

• Route Rate: 77.5%, 11th (out of 31 qualifying TEs – min 50.0% route rate)

• Targets per Route Run: 26.6%, 5th 

• Yards per Route Run: 2.47, 2nd 

Back in August (a lifetime ago), I laid out the top five metrics we should prioritize for TEs. Strange’s on-field deployment as a route runner (just a 10.2% pass-blocking snap rate), his ability to earn targets and his efficiency with them check four of the five.

Houston (the Jags’ Week 6 opponent) has only faced two TEs with consistent roles in their team’s passing game. And between Dalton Kincaid and Tyler Warren, the Texans gave up 185 yards on 16 targets. Lawrence’s reliance on Strange has already been a positive for his team. And with another strong performance, he should become a productive asset for our fantasy squads.

Buffalo – Is DJ Moore’s absence the problem with the passing game?

Poor Harrison Mevis. Drawing the ire of one of the best coaches in the league (and ultimately losing your job) is never a good position. But if not for a couple of missed field goals (trajectory on the second attempt looked wide before the block), we would’ve been having a different conversation about the Bills offense.

I’ve already admitted to being a Bengals fan, so take my following critique with a grain of salt. But I’ll quibble with the “MVP-level performance” from No. 17. Let’s have some fun with numbers first. The name of the game is “spot the outlier.”

• Week 3: 31 (Dropbacks), 9.7 (Air Yards per Att.), 7.3 (YAC per Comp.), 3.2% (Scramble %)

• Week 4: 35, 8.0, 5.9, 2.9%

• Week 5: 28, 7.7, 16.1, 28.6%

If I had to guess (we don’t), something was different about Buffalo’s offense during Monday night’s matchup against the Rams. It wasn’t L.A.’s ability to impose its will up front. Allen’s 39.3% pressure rate fell right in line with his last four outings. The more concerning part for the Rams is that just four of the 11 pressures were under 2.5 seconds. Also, Allen averaging 2.81 seconds to let the ball fly aligned with his tendencies coming into the game. His environment, for all intents and purposes, was similar. But his passing charts point to a different philosophy.

Allen’s throws to the MoF have been on the decline since Week 2. Coincidentally, that’s the same time DJ Moore first hurt his shoulder. Since then, Buffalo’s solution has been two-fold. Against the Patriots (who were down two starting CBs), they threw to their remaining WRs, enabling a season-high 70.0% target rate for the Bills’ WRs. But just getting the ball to their speed options to avoid the Rams' front kept them in the game. That meant involving the RBs (33.3% target rate) and TEs (27.8%) to churn out yards. And, of course, Allen putting on his Superman cape and rumbling downfield if the Rams showed man coverage.

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Essentially, without Moore, the plan of attack shifts. That’s great for real football (and Bills fans!), but harder for us. However, if New England’s dismantling of the Raiders showed us anything, LV’s personnel at the second level and deep are susceptible to lapses in coverage. Assuming Moore misses another week, Dalton Kincaid (and Keon Coleman) should be the primary beneficiary against this defense. If not, let’s hope the bye brings Moore, and some normalcy, back to the Bills’ passing game.

Chargers – Can their running game show signs of life?

I’m limiting my ask of the Chargers to the running game for two reasons. First, let’s look for progress, not perfection. Also, scheming up ground attacks is (was?) OC Mike McDaniels’ specialty. We at least got a flash of it on Sunday.

Of course, Kimani Vidal, not second-round-ADP Omarion Hampton, is the lone bright spot in L.A.’s backfield. Again, baby steps. But the larger problem has been the down-to-down consistency. Keaton Mitchell, along with Vidal and Hampton, has been capable of generating an explosive play or two. However, to keep the rest of the offense on schedule, their early-down results need to improve.

• Rushing Success Rate (on early downs – Weeks 3-5): 41.7%, 22nd 

• EPA per Play: -0.10, 15th 

• Adj. Yards Before Contact per Att.: 0.83, 15th  

I’m highlighting first- and second-down rushes as the Chargers have ranked 19th or lower in PROE on those snaps in four of their five games. But their progress has left Justin Herbert with the ninth-longest distance to the sticks in obvious passing situations (8.3). Even worse, the Broncos got wise to McDaniels’ tendency. Vidal and Hampton saw eight or more defenders in the box on over half of their early-down attempts (57.8% and 78.6%, respectively). No wonder Hampton only averaged 2.4 yards per carry. But if there’s a way to attack the Chiefs in Week 6, it’s on the ground.

I went back and rewatched Jonathan Taylor’s and Ashton Jeanty’s outings against Kansas City. They’re the only rushers to go up against DC Steve Spagnuolo and come out the other side with a rushing success rate at or above 40.0%. A commonality was their ability to attack the defensive edge. Both found the majority of their success on outside zone attempts (64% - Taylor, 60% - Jeanty). Taylor’s TD runs were on pulling concepts to the perimeter. And with the Colts’ and Raiders’ use of under-center rushes, there’s a potential blueprint for McDaniel to base his plan on for L.A.’s divisional opponent. 

Mitchell (4.37 40-yard time) and Vidal (4.46) have been the primary ball carriers on outside zone attempts. They’ve racked up 189 yards on 38 attempts, with success rates well above Hampton’s on similar concepts. More importantly, Herbert’s yards needed for a first down dropped to 7.1 after those rushes. We can talk about what to do with Ladd McConkey and the other receivers after they get healthy. But if there’s no running game, there’s no offense.

Washington – Should we “sabotage drop” all non-Jayden-Daniels players?

First, if you’re unfamiliar with the term “sabotage drop,” please read up on the teachings from the wonderful Paul Charchian. Second, I’m (mostly) asking this question in jest. But after Sunday’s bizarre game, it was worth the exercise. I’ll make the case against Terry McLaurin.

Honestly, the text from the post does most of the heavy lifting. Nothing’s changed for McLaurin in his eighth year for Washington. He still has an intermediate aDOT (12.8 air yards) with over 80.0% of his snaps on the perimeter. Over half of his yards have come on six plays. Coming into Week 5, McLaurin was second on the team in targets behind Stefon Diggs. And even with him removed, McLaurin still couldn’t find the top spot.

• Chig Okonkwo: 26.1% (Target Rate), 26.0% (Air Yard Share)

• Treylon Burks: 21.7%, 20.8%

• McLaurin: 17.4%, 22.5%

• Antonio Williams: 13.0%, 12.1%

Typically, even if McLaurin would fall behind in looks, his outsized share of the air yards would at least indicate that Jayden Daniels or Marcus Mariota were keeping him involved downfield. Sure, the rain put a (literal) damper on that idea. But everyone was running short routes, and the interior guys still won out. 

Sam Darnold did push more of his attempts to the boundary of the 49ers’ coverage (resulting in multiple turnovers), which should benefit McLaurin in Week 6. But without any change, his usage and production profile and Emeka Egbuka’s are hard to tell apart. And that’s not a good thing. McLaurin’s name value in a trade is worth more than his current weekly output. I could say the same for one of the RBs on his team, too.

Again, the post gives you the main idea that’s working against Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Yes, he now leads the committee in explosive gains. But his early-down efficiency isn’t a stark improvement over Rachaad White’s. And now, both White and Austin Ekeler are siphoning away routes and targets.

Daniels’ mobility was always going to make Croskey-Merritt’s situation look like the worse version of James Cook III’s. But there are two other RBs also waiting on the sideline for snaps and touches. Croskey-Merritt’s (limited) success on outside zone runs, the same concepts that worked for Seattle in Week 5, may keep him in the driver’s seat heading into the bye. But any continued rotation between the three RBs should have him off our rosters by Week 7.