Can Agricultural Growth Make Kazakhstan Regional Food Security Hub?

The Astana Times provides news and information from Kazakhstan and around the world.

ASTANA – The global food system is facing several pressures at once. Population growth and rising incomes, particularly in middle-income countries, are changing consumption patterns. Demand for meat, dairy products, and other protein sources is increasing.

At the same time, agriculture faces growing climate risks. Water scarcity, higher input costs and supply chain disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions are adding to the pressure.

Against this backdrop, Kazakhstan is seeking to strengthen its role in regional food security. The country is increasing agricultural production and expanding exports. It is also investing in irrigation, processing, logistics and agricultural technologies.

Agriculture gains momentum

Kazakhstan’s agricultural sector continues to show growth. Gross agricultural output increased 4.4% in the first six months of 2026 to 2.2 trillion tenge (US$4.9 billion), according to the government.

Investment has been a major driver. Investment in agriculture increased 36.4% in the first five months of 2026, while investment in food production grew 2.7 times to 207.3 billion tenge (US$464 million).

The country is also progressing with its harvest campaign. At a Sept. 18 operational headquarters meeting, Vice Minister of Agriculture Nazgul Khatepova reported that Kazakhstan’s total sown area reached 24.2 million hectares, including 15.6 million hectares planted with grain and leguminous crops.

As of the meeting, farmers had harvested 11.3 million hectares, with an average yield of 14.2 centners per hectare. Grain harvesting had covered 72.5% of the total grain area. Farmers had harvested 16.2 million tons of grain. Around 74% of the soft wheat delivered for storage was classified as third-grade wheat.

The livestock sector is also expanding. Cattle numbers increased by 5.8% to 9.3 million head, while horse numbers rose by 7.4% to 5 million and camel numbers increased by 3.6% to 312,000. Meat production in slaughter weight rose by 5.5% to 559,000 tons. Milk production increased by 2.4% to 1.9 million tons, while egg production grew by 7.9% to 2.4 billion eggs.

In addition, Kazakhstan is preparing for the 2027 harvest as the current harvesting campaign continues, Deputy Agriculture Minister Azat Sultanov said at a government meeting Sept. 29.

According to Sultanov, the country has stored 2 million tons of seeds, or 90% of the 2.3 million tons required for next year’s harvest.

Winter plowing is also under way, with 2.1 million tons of fertilizer applied so far, or 66% of the scientifically recommended amount, compared with 58% last year.

Kazakhstan has also completed the digitization of all agricultural land to support soil-quality monitoring and crop-yield forecasting.

Logistics strengthen export potential

Growing agricultural output is driving higher grain transportation and export volumes. Kazakhstan’s strategic location between major consumer markets across Eurasia further strengthens its position as an agricultural exporter. For the agrifood sector, this provides access to markets in Central Asia, China, the Caucasus, the Middle East and beyond.

According to Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), the country transported 9.3 million tons of grain during the first eight months of the year. This was 13% more than in the same period in 2025. Domestic transportation accounted for 2.1 million tons, an increase of 8%.

August saw a record monthly volume of grain transportation following the start of the new harvest. The figure reached 1.157 million tons, up 35%.

Kazakhstan exported 7.1 million tons of grain from January through August. Of this amount, 4.8 million tons went to Central Asian countries, an increase of 37%. Uzbekistan received 3.6 million tons, up 50%. Exports to Tajikistan reached 998,000 tons, up 17%. Another 562,000 tons were transported to China, an increase of 34%.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, agricultural exports reached $3 billion in January-April 2026, up 36% from $2.2 billion a year earlier, and are expected to reach $7.2 billion by the end of 2026.

Grain market faces price pressure

Strong production and export capacity, however, do not eliminate market risks.

Kazakhstan’s grain market entered the autumn season under pressure from growing supplies of the new harvest and cheaper Russian wheat, according to Yevgeny Karabanov, head of the Analytics Committee of the Grain Union of Kazakhstan.

“The supply of grain and oilseeds on the domestic market is increasing. Prices for grain and oilseeds from the new harvest are continuing to form on both domestic and foreign markets,” Karabanov said in his Telegram channel.

He noted that prices for some wheat grades on the domestic market fell by 1,000-3,000 tenge (US$2.2-US$7) per ton over one week, while export prices declined by up to $5 per ton.

Karabanov identified two main factors affecting the market. One is the growing supply of Kazakhstan’s new harvest. The other is the availability of Russian wheat at lower prices.

Export shipments are beginning to increase, but logistics costs have also risen. Karabanov said transportation costs increased 10%-15% over the week, or about $3.50-$5.50 per ton.

He emphasized that buyers also remain cautious about purchasing large grain volumes. Importers are expecting further price declines and are looking for cheaper Russian wheat.

“Amid restrictions on wheat exports in Russia, due to the effective blocking of Black Sea and Azov Sea ports, wheat prices in Russia continue to decline. Proposals to supply Russian wheat to Kazakhstan and Central Asian countries were increasing, while the weakening ruble was making Russian wheat more attractive to regional importers,” Karabanov said.

He warned that increasing supplies of cheaper Russian grain could intensify competition in Central Asian markets for grain, flour and vegetable oils.

According to Karabanov, tighter restrictions on Russian wheat imports into Kazakhstan could temporarily support domestic prices, but competition from Russian agricultural products in Central Asia would remain.

From grain exporter to food security hub

Kazakhstan’s agricultural sector faces challenges amid a broader shift in how food security is understood.

In a written response to The Astana Times, the Islamic Organisation for Food Security (IOFS) said food security is no longer measured solely by the volume of food produced. It increasingly depends on the resilience of the entire food system, from genetic resources and agricultural production to storage, transportation, trade and access to food.

“Whoever controls the seeds controls the food,” the organization said, highlighting the importance of conserving genetic resources and developing crop varieties that can withstand changing climate conditions.

Agriculture faces growing pressure from climate change, water scarcity, land degradation, pests and diseases. According to IOFS, countries need to invest in agricultural research, plant breeding, biotechnology, innovation and resilient seed systems.

Production must also be supported by reliable supply chains, adequate storage, food processing, transport and open trade. IOFS noted that effective governance, early-warning systems, and coordination across agriculture, water, trade, transport, energy, and finance are also important.

“Ultimately, food security is not simply about producing more food. It is about building resilient food systems capable of withstanding shocks, adapting to changing conditions, and ensuring that safe, nutritious, and affordable food remains accessible to all, even in times of uncertainty,” the IOFS said.

Kazakhstan’s strategic assets and remaining gaps

IOFS identifies several advantages that could strengthen Kazakhstan’s role in regional food security. These include extensive land resources, a developed grain sector, strong livestock production and an established scientific and research base.

The country also has plant genetic resources and experience in crop breeding, seed production and agricultural research. Some crop varieties have been adapted to harsh continental and water-scarce conditions.

“This makes them increasingly relevant as countries seek to adapt their agricultural systems to climate change,” IOFS said.

The organization identified several areas where Kazakhstan could contribute to regional and international food security, including agricultural science and innovation, climate-resilient seed systems, technology transfer, logistics and trade connectivity, and the exchange of agricultural expertise.

For Kazakhstan to become a regional food security hub, several challenges still need to be addressed, particularly water management, technology, processing and logistics.

Agriculture will increasingly depend on efficient water use as climate pressures intensify. Kazakhstan is modernizing irrigation and introducing digital solutions, while IOFS recommends more precise water management through better measurement, digital allocation, satellite monitoring, telemetry, and data-based decision-making.

Technology also needs to reach farmers faster, including digital agriculture, precision farming, modern breeding and climate-adaptation solutions. At the same time, Kazakhstan could strengthen its position by expanding food processing and exporting higher-value products rather than raw commodities.

“Storage and logistics remain important because Kazakhstan is landlocked,” IOFS said, adding that long-term competitiveness will depend on integrating water management, science, technology, processing and logistics.

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