Note: Global Morning Briefing is a roundup of international news compiled by The Seoul Economic Daily.
Trump Declares a Truce. Russia Answers With Bombs.
U.S. President Donald Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy truce, but Russia struck a Ukrainian power plant shortly afterward and Kyiv said it was hearing of the deal for the first time. The episode shows that Washington's plan — driven by an urgent need to stabilize oil prices ahead of the midterm elections — is not holding up on the ground.
Trump wrote on social media on the 11th that the truce would take effect immediately. A White House official said halting attacks on refineries was the core of the deal and that it could lead to a further agreement to stop strikes on power plants and the electricity grid.
Ukraine, however, has only one functioning refinery, leaving it unbalanced against Russia's extensive refining network, and the arrangement falls short of the grid protection Kyiv wants, critics say.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was hearing of it for the first time but would comply if Russia did, and later said he supported a truce while waiting for Washington to release details. According to ABC News, Russia struck the CHP-5 thermal power plant in Kharkiv, in eastern Ukraine, at least twice after the announcement, setting off a fire.
Tensions between Washington and Kyiv are also deepening. Zelenskyy said he would hold a presidential election if Russia agreed to a 60-day full cease-fire, a response to Trump's remarks about replacing Ukraine's leadership. Zelenskyy's term expired in May 2024, but no election date has been set because of martial law. The Financial Times, citing European sources, reported that the United States warned it would suspend intelligence sharing and block the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), a NATO-managed channel for procuring U.S. weapons, if Ukraine continued striking Russian refineries.
CXMT's Server DRAM Gambit Challenges Korean Memory Makers
CXMT, China's largest DRAM maker, said it had made progress on the 4F-squared (4F²) cell structure, a core technology for next-generation DRAM, and would release a server product by the end of this year. The company did not disclose detailed specifications or mass-production plans, however, and Korean industry officials said it is difficult to conclude that CXMT holds a technological edge.
According to China's Securities Daily on the 12th, CXMT Chief Executive Cao Kanyu told a conference in Shanghai that the company had resolved current leakage problems with vertical surround gate (VSG) transistors, laying the groundwork for 4F². Cao added that the company would launch a server DDR5 RDIMM using the technology by year-end.
The 4F² structure shrinks the area of the cell that stores data, cutting it by about 33% from the 6F² structure now in mainstream use and allowing more data to fit on the same chip. SK hynix unveiled its road map last year and Samsung Electronics is targeting mass production in 2028, meaning CXMT is about two years ahead on announced timelines alone. CXMT chose server memory — a higher technical barrier — as its first application instead of the low-power DRAM it has focused on. Because server memory must run around the clock and prevent errors during high-speed transmission, the company said the choice reflects its intent to take on that barrier head-on.
Korean industry officials are cautious. The new technology may apply to only a limited range of products, and success in large-scale mass production remains uncertain. One official said applying a new technology and achieving stable mass production are separate matters, and that the disclosed information is not enough to verify the process or yields. Another stressed that completeness and actual performance matter more than the technology generation.
Houthi Offensive Shakes Saudi Arabia as Air Defenses Shield Royal Palaces
Saudi Arabia has asked Pakistan and other friendly countries for military support after its stockpile of interceptor missiles ran dry under repeated missile and drone attacks by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi rebels. The United States, its biggest ally, is holding back from direct involvement, adding to the kingdom's burden.
The Wall Street Journal reported on the 12th, citing Saudi officials and others, that the kingdom is seeking additional air defense systems from abroad to reinforce its coverage. Unable to defend its vast territory in full, Saudi Arabia is redeploying air defense batteries to prioritize royal palaces and key energy facilities. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is said to be moving among palaces equipped with bunkers, guarded by a security team he selected himself. The kingdom has asked Pakistan, its military ally, for support and is also considering recruiting foreign fighters to help Yemeni government forces fight the Houthis.
Washington, by contrast, is keeping a cautious stance. According to the Journal, the crown prince requested military support to retake areas lost to the Houthis, but the United States declined and instead sent military advisers to assist Saudi operations.
Experts say Saudi Arabia underestimated the chance that the Houthi offensive would widen. The kingdom believed the conflict was manageable through this summer, but in August the Houthis seized strategic footholds including Mocha around the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Saudi Arabia, wary of escalation, withheld air support from Yemeni government forces at the time and ceded positions along the Red Sea coast, increasing the threat to crude oil shipping routes.
Attacks on Saudi soil have also intensified. The Houthis struck King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on the 10th, killing 13 people and injuring more than 300, and a follow-up attack the next day killed one person and injured 11. Refineries and the east-west oil pipeline have also been targeted. Rising defense spending, damage to energy facilities and a contraction in tourism and aviation are compounding fiscal strain.
Fear of a 'Second Greek Crisis' From France Puts Euro Zone on Alert
France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed to its highest level in 25 years, bringing European fiscal instability back into focus. The country's debt is 10 times the size of Greece's during the 2010 crisis, while student protests and a presidential election season are adding to the unease.
According to Bloomberg on the 12th, the French 10-year yield approached 5% this month before easing to the 4.8% range. That marks a sharp rise from below 4% two months ago. The spread over German bunds was the widest since 2012, and on the 10th the risk premium over Italian debt hit a record high.
France's gross domestic product is about 3 trillion euros against debt of about 3.6 trillion euros, with the debt ratio expected to exceed 120% within a year. That is a steep climb from below 100% in 2019. Interest costs alone will top 90 billion euros next year, exceeding the education budget. The government lacks the capacity to find the 10 billion euros demanded by student protesters, who began demonstrating in late September.
Markets are watching for contagion. Spreads over German debt have widened to about 120 basis points for Italy and 100 basis points for Greece. Michel Sapin, a former finance minister, said political uncertainty is amplifying substantive concerns. The European Central Bank says emergency tools are not yet needed, and the chance of a rate increase at its meeting on the 29th has diminished. Michael Theurer, a Bundesbank executive board member, said that "there is no systemic sovereign debt crisis at present, but the risks have risen significantly." Thierry Wizman, a rates strategist at Macquarie Group, said France's bond selloff and social unrest "are now operating as a single loop," adding that "ending the crisis on one side would help resolve the other." Pimco is maintaining an underweight position in French government bonds.
