US midterm elections are 10 days out, and Bitcoin has a track record around them that traders would rather not repeat. In each of the last three midterm cycles, the asset hit a major low shortly after voters went to the polls.
A closer look suggests the ballot box may not be the culprit. According to CoinDesk’s analysis, the timing appears more closely tied to Bitcoin’s own market cycles than to anything happening in Washington, especially since technology stocks have not followed the same script.
Three midterms, three bottoms
The pattern is tidy enough to make anyone suspicious. Bitcoin bottomed in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022, each time not long after the preceding midterm vote.
The gaps were approximately 71, 38 and 13 days after election day, respectively. Notice the direction: each bottom arrived sooner than the last, as if the market got more impatient every cycle.
The fourth quarter of each of those midterm years was rough. Bitcoin posted a negative Q4 return of −16.7% in 2014, −42.16% in 2018 and −14.75% in 2022.
The broader post-midterm drawdowns ranged from 27% to 72%.
Here is where the election theory starts to wobble. If midterms themselves were driving risk assets lower, you would expect tech stocks, Bitcoin’s frequent trading companion, to show a similar dip. They have shown a less consistent pattern, which points the finger back at crypto’s internal rhythm.
Correlation, meet causation
Bitcoin’s version of flu season is its supply cycle. The halving schedule, a programmed cut to the rate of new Bitcoin issuance, has historically shaped boom-and-bust phases in the market.
US midterms happen to fall at a similar point in that rhythm each time. So the lows look political on a calendar, but they may simply be the market running its usual course.
Where Bitcoin stands heading into November 3
This year’s midterms take place on November 3, 2026. As of October 23, 2026, Bitcoin was trading between $82,000 and $84,000.
That price comes after a summer slide to a low of around $58,000. The rebound from that level has been substantial, which is part of why some traders are questioning whether the old playbook still applies.
The case for a different outcome this time leans on a few structural changes. These include the maturation of Bitcoin as an asset, inflows through exchange-traded funds, and shifting liquidity conditions.
What this means for traders and investors
The most practical takeaway is a level to watch. The short-term holder cost basis sits near $73,000, according to the research reviewed for this piece.
That metric reflects the average price at which recent buyers acquired their coins. When the market trades above it, newer holders are sitting on profits. When price falls below it, those same holders are underwater, which can trigger nervous selling.
With Bitcoin in the low $80,000s, there is some cushion above that line. A sustained move below $73,000 around the election could signal that volatility is picking up, and that the historical post-midterm weakness is reasserting itself.
If the 2022 low arrived just 13 days after election day, the window to test that theory is fairly short.
Historically, the short-term softness after midterms has been followed by stronger gains in the year after the election.
Three data points make a suggestive chart, not a law of nature.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.