Global oil supply increased by 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to 102.3 million bpd in September as Gulf producers ramped up output and exports despite continued disruptions to regional energy infrastructure, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Wednesday.
According to the IEA’s Oil Market Report, the increase was driven by higher output from the OPEC+ group, which rose by 2.1 million bpd during the month.
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production jumped by 2.3 million bpd to 8.3 million bpd, reaching its highest level since February as the country recovered from disruptions to its oil infrastructure.
Crude production from OPEC+ rose by around 2 million bpd in September compared with August, reaching 34.8 million bpd, driven largely by a recovery in Saudi Arabian output, while Iranian supply remained constrained by the continued US naval blockade.
Meanwhile, non-OPEC+ oil supply increased by about 480,000 bpd to 61.7 million bpd, supported by record production levels in Brazil and the US, as well as a rebound in UK output from near 50-year lows following seasonal maintenance.
Supply growth from non-OPEC+ producers is expected to be led by five countries in the Americas — the US, Canada, Brazil, Argentina and Guyana — which are projected to add a combined 1.5 million bpd in 2026.
– Gulf oil output rebounds in September
Oil supply from Gulf producers increased by 2.6 million bpd to 24.3 million bpd in September, while regional oil exports, excluding Oman, rose by 4.7 million bpd to 16.5 million bpd, remaining 33% below pre-war levels.
The IEA expects global oil supply to decline by 5.8 million bpd year-on-year to average 100.7 million bpd in 2026, despite the recovery in Gulf production.
Next year, global oil supply is projected to rise by 7.7 million bpd to 108.3 million bpd, supported by a recovery in OPEC+ production.
– IEA cuts oil demand forecast
The IEA expects global oil demand to decline by 2.6 million bpd year-on-year in 2026, as disruptions linked to the Iran war, high fuel prices and a deteriorating economic outlook continue to weigh on consumption.
Accordingly, global oil demand is forecast to average around 102.4 million bpd this year, with diesel accounting for about 25% of the decline.
Global oil demand is expected to recover partially in 2027, increasing by 2 million bpd to around 104.4 million bpd, although consumption is projected to remain 620,000 bpd below 2025 levels.