$650bn lost to money laundering in US in 2025

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The US ranked 16th out of 42 markets assessed, highlighting the continued scale of illicit finance moving through the American economy.

Despite maintaining one of the strongest AML effectiveness scores globally for three consecutive years, the US continues to spend an estimated $59.91bn on anti-money laundering (AML) compliance, while a further $27.69bn in potential AI-driven savings remains unrealized – the largest opportunity across all 42 markets assessed.

The findings come from the Napier AI / AML Index 2026 – 2027, in partnership with GlobalData. Led by Dr Janet Bastiman, Chief Data Scientist at Napier AI, the Index provides insight into the money laundering landscape across 42 global markets.

Money laundering losses as a percentage of GDP in the US fell from 2.48% in 2024 to 2.14% in 2025, while its total cost of compliance and AML attitude scores have both worsened. The Index points to money muling through human exploitation and trafficking, individuals with unusually high numbers of accounts for illicit trade and counterfeiting, and structured transfers between groups of accounts for arms trafficking as top typologies driving money laundering through criminal activities in the US.

Greg Watson, CEO of Napier AI, commented: “The scale of money laundering remains staggering even with promising signs of pushback in the fight against financial crime. For too long it has been assumed that the rising cost of financial crime was an inevitability, but our research proves otherwise.

However, conflicts and rapidly changing sanctions regimes have resulted in an uneven regulatory environment and gaps in financial crime defenses which criminals exploit. Our newest analysis traces these trends that create the border line of financial crime and outlines how geographic and political proximity impact risk exposure as much as domestic defenses and regulatory red tape. So, despite the headline progress made, nations cannot afford complacency. Financial crime moves as fast, so AML must innovate faster.”

An estimated $3.05tn in economic value could potentially be recovered globally if all assessed markets matched the AML performance of the strongest-performing markets. As governments worldwide push to stimulate economic growth and strengthen public finances, the Index identifies a significant untapped economic opportunity.

Dr. Janet Bastiman, Chief Data Scientist at Napier AI, commented: “Over $3 trillion in AML recovery offers huge potential for economies and organisations, and our data shows that spending more on compliance isn’t the only answer. Better detection and underlying data, underpinned by AI, gives compliance teams a more accurate picture of their financial risk and allowing them to focus on the largest money laundering threats.

But that AI must be explainable and every automated decision must be auditable by a regulator. It requires human judgement to both own the decisions and also understand the patterns that criminals are using to stop illicit flows.”

The Index also reports a fall in the cost of AML compliance for the US, decreasing 10.2% from $66.74bn in 2024 to $59.91bn in 2025.

Artificial intelligence provides a significant and yet, currently underutilized, opportunity to keep compliance spending at bay while not sacrificing the effectiveness of AML operations. The US had the largest unrealized savings across the 42 markets, with a potential $27.69bn on the table in savings.

However, cost reduction globally is not the sole motivation for institutions adopting AI, regulatory obligations continue to dominate investment decisions despite growing interest in AI in AML functions. 64% of institutions noted meeting regulatory requirements is their top AML investment priority, compared with 20% prioritizing new technology and 12% on hiring and training AML experts, suggesting financial institutions continue to approach AML primarily through the lens of compliance, with a focus on improved outcomes in risk-based approaches.

Encouragingly, 68% of financial crime professionals believe their existing AML engines are ready to support the data demands of AI, however realizing the technology’s full potential will require institutions to address wider challenges around access to information, data sharing and collaboration.

The Index also reveals significant disparities in AML performance across global markets:

• The Strongest Performer: Czechia retained its position as the strongest overall performer across the 42 markets assessed.
• The Most AML Effectiveness: Greece, a new entrant to the Index, recorded the best AML effectiveness score.
• The Weakest Performer: Hong Kong ranked last overall despite a substantial reduction in money laundering losses.
• The UK totalled $206.72bn in losses, rising slower than the economy to cut the share of GDP from 5.53% to 5.16%.
• The United States recorded losses of $658.43bn, with the largest unrealised AI savings at $27.69bn.
• Canada was the second strongest performer, improving across almost ever metric and rising from 8th place in the 25-26 Index.
• China was the most improved on overall Index ranking, moving up from 27th to 10th place and reducing losses to 3.51% of GPD. But it still posts the largest money laundering losses globally, recording $688.76 bn.
• Russia recorded a 47.7% year-on-year increase in money laundering losses to $278bn.
• Ukraine recorded its third consecutive annual decline in money laundering losses to 8.3% of GDP.
• The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia hold the top two AI / AML regulation scores in the Index suggesting firms are happy with minimal red tape, but AML effectiveness remains among the weakest demonstrating the role of the regulator in mandating risk-based approaches.
• France, Germany, the Netherlands and Poland spent more on compliance than their losses would predict, with the Index pointing to Poland’s overspend being linked to its border with Russia and Belarus.