Bell: We wait for Danielle Smith's move, no matter the referendum score

You think it’s over.

By the time you read this column you might have seen referendum results but no matter the score it’s not over.

In fact, it has just begun.

Let’s quote the wise words of former British prime minister Winston Churchill after an Allied victory in a Second World War far from finished.

“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is perhaps the end of the beginning.”

How will Prime Minister Carney handle Alberta’s beefs now?

How will Premier Danielle Smith hold her political party together, a tent with separatists and pro-Canada types?

How will the premier calm the waters in the UCP and will her trust in Carney be rewarded?

These questions and many others will be jawed over in the days and weeks ahead and they will become the ongoing chapters in the real story.

As we learn who won and by how much in the Alberta referendum remember Premier Danielle Smith herself was always looking to the days after the vote.

It is an odd situation.

Nose counters told us Albertans who did not vote for Smith in the last provincial election almost to a person would vote for Option 1.

Alberta to remain a part of Canada.

That was Premier Smith’s option and the option of almost every politician in the province, at least those willing to show their colours.

The number crunchers also told us, when it came to those voting to have a referendum on Alberta independence, more than half of Smith’s supporters said they backed a ballot on whether Alberta should leave Canada.

That is Option 2.

In other words, most of Smith’s supporters would head in an opposite direction from the premier.

So we were told by the pollsters.

Smith knew all this and she spoke openly about how she wanted everyone to respect the wisdom of the people casting ballots, knowing every talking head, every finger in the wind deep thinker said the Alberta separatists would lose big.

Smith has already appealed for conservative unity, promising to fight for change in Canada and defeat the NDP under Naheed Nenshi in the next Alberta election, knowing any mention of the NDP leader and the threat of an NDP government gets a rise from the party faithful.

Smith was hoping for a strong Option 1 vote.

Some figured a stay-in-Canada Option 1 win that wasn’t a resounding victory would make it tougher for Smith to keep the separatists in her own party from going after her.

A 30 per cent vote for a separatist referendum would make an attention-grabbing headline.

Three in ten.

Smith also wanted a big win on the so-called nine questions, especially with Alberta demanding more control of immigration.

A Yes on those questions would give Smith a platform to rattle Ottawa’s cage.

And the questions were a sort of consolation prize for the separatists.

By the way, Carney advised Albertans to vote No to all of Smith’s nine questions. Huh?

As Albertans headed to the ballot box, the pro-Canada crowd was confident.

Everyone was predicting a landslide.

Most talking heads figured the number to be around 25 per cent supporting a separatist vote, echoing the polls.

Separatist leaders privately said their support would be higher, some said quite a bit higher.

Their campaign puzzled many of those who have made a living out of covering election campaigns.

The separatists had no real leader.

They had no single campaign. There were many little campaigns.

Some of these campaigns played up to the separatists.

Some said you didn’t have to be a separatist to vote for Option 2, you just had to want to send Ottawa a message.

There was much talk of a big Option 2 vote giving Alberta leverage to take on Ottawa.

The Alberta independence crowd didn’t do much with the mainstream media.

There were no press conferences, almost no press releases and few big events.

From the outside looking in, it looked like the separatists were talking to each other.

One separatist leader told me they were following a very under-the-radar strategy.

He did not elaborate.

No matter.

The numbers will be the numbers and those who play political inside baseball will endlessly dissect their meaning.

But, as a grizzled veteran of the newspaper game told me when I was a wet behind the ears reporter, if in doubt follow the person with the football.

Premier Danielle Smith has the football.

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