Statistics are a useful way to analyse and interpret data, make informed decisions and predict outcomes, yet there are claims that statistics are easily misinterpreted or misapplied.
In his autobiography published in 1907, the American writer Mark Twain popularised the saying “Lies, damned lies, and statistics” although he erroneously credited it to British prime minister Benjamin Disraeli.
The enduring phrase captures the tension at the heart of statistics: they can illuminate reality, but they can also mislead when their sources or interpretation are unsound.
But there is no evidence that Disraeli ever said or wrote it, as the earliest known appearances already date back to the 1890s.
Twain was the pen name of Samuel Clemens, an acclaimed journalist, humourist, lecturer and novelist celebrated for classics such as ‘The Adventures of Tom Sawyer’ and ‘Adventures of Huckleberry Finn’.
Like a carefully chosen pen name, a statistic can shape how readers perceive the reality behind it.
A pen name is a pseudonym or fictitious name often used by authors to keep privacy and protect their personal lives.
Nowadays the phrase “lies, damned lies and statistics” is often used to question the reliability of statistics.
Although statistics was not my favourite subject, I believe statistics are essential to informed decision-making. They must, however, be used responsibly, with their limitations clearly understood, to prevent misleading conclusions.
Statistics are powerful tools, but that power makes them vulnerable to manipulation and misrepresentation in the service of personal interests.
Sound reporting, therefore, demands analytical and critical thinking. Readers should ask what was measured, how the data was gathered and whether the evidence supports the conclusions drawn.
Statistics should, therefore, be assessed against the quality of the underlying data, the rigour of the collection process and the credibility of the sources.
Agriculture’s significant contribution to Namibia’s gross domestic product (GDP) is supported by credible statistics.
Take the Namibia Agriculture and Fishing Indicators Statistical Bulletin. It provides a comprehensive overview of Namibia’s agricultural and fishing sectors on crop production, fish landings, international merchandise trade patterns, and auction price development.
Published quarterly, the bulletin aids users such as analysts, researchers, and policymakers in their planning and decision-making processes.
Meat, fish and, to a lesser extent, grape exports usually attract attention, but recently published statistics in the bulletin on the contribution of dates, tomatoes and onions to Namibia’s GDP make for interesting reading.
It highlights that in the second quarter of last year, date exports generated just under N$160 million, while tomato and onion exports brought in a not-insignificant N$24.5 million and N$15.2 million, respectively.
Not a favourite in Namibia, a date is a fruit of the date palm tree eaten as a snack or used as an ingredient in cookery recipes.
So, the next time you hear an argument with statistics as a back-up, check the credibility of the source and the context in which it is being used or misused.
Especially when used by politicians on the international stage to justify their acts or omissions.
When it comes to the Namibia Agriculture and Fishing Indicators Statistical Bulletin, readers can have confidence in the credibility of the statistics, as the information was professionally collated, thoroughly analysed and researched, and presented in context.
– Danny Meyer is reachable at danny@smecompete.com
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