Democratic candidates outraised their Republican rivals in the third quarter, building a financial edge in the final stretch of the midterms as they hope to flip control of the Senate.
Republicans trailed in third-quarter fundraising in all but one competitive race in the final reporting period before the November 3 elections, a warning sign as control of the Senate remains competitive. But outside money could relieve Republicans who are lagging in campaign funding.
Republicans outspent Democrats by $188 million in advertising in Senate battlegrounds, AdImpact wrote in an October 1 blog post. Funds from the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership PAC, the Trump-affiliated MAGA Inc. and Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest man who has opened his wallet for Republicans, could help make up for that in key races.
Newsweek reached out to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and National Republican Senatorial Committee for comment via email.
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Where Republicans and Democrats Are Raising the Most Money
Democratic state Representative James Talarico of Texas brought in $64 million, the largest amount any U.S. Senate candidate has ever raised during the third quarter, as he hopes to become the first Democrat to win in the state since 1994, when Democrats won several statewide offices, even as Democratic Governor Ann Richards lost reelection. His Republican opponent, state Attorney General Ken Paxton, raised just over $10 million.
Democrats outraised their opponents in other competitive states like Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio.
But they also pulled in impressive fundraising in three states that have been viewed as more favorable to Republicans.
As Kansas’ Senate race shifted to toss-up territory, Democrat Adam Hamilton raised nearly $10 million, while Republican Senator Roger Marshall raised less than $1 million. Democrat Annie Andrews outraised Republican Senator Darline Graham in South Carolina. In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn outraised Republican Senator Pete Ricketts.
Only in Minnesota did a Republican candidate outraise a Democrat. GOP candidate Michele Tafoya raised $4.3 million to Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan’s $3.8 million in the race in which Flanagan is seen as having an advantage.
Having more cash than your opponent is important, David Karol, a professor of political science at the University of Maryland, told Newsweek, noting that candidates can buy TV ads at a lower rate and have “total control” of the message of those ads because they cannot coordinate with super PACs.
But having a fundraising advantage isn’t the only important factor for campaigns, he said.
“We've already seen candidates with enormous spending advantages like Tom Steyer and David Trone lose primaries and there are examples from past years like Michael Bloomberg,” he said. “A candidate needs a certain amount to be viable and visible. Yet fundamentals like the midterm dynamic, voter concern about prices and the war and [President Donald] Trump's resulting low approval rating cannot be counteracted simply by spending a lot.”
The following map reveals how much candidates raised in each competitive Senate race during the third quarter.
Elon Musk, Outside Money Boosts Republicans
Karol said that a significant amount of the money spent in these races is not “based on the candidates' own fundraising and never passes through their campaign structures.”
Republicans are staying competitive in ad buys due to a massive influx of outside spending, including from Musk, whose contributions Karol described as “staggering.”
Musk has contributed more than $276 million on political spending for Republican groups since July, according to a new report from The New York Times. Much of that has gone to the Senate Leadership Fund, which is aligned with GOP leadership and is going to candidates in key races.
In September, he also gave $158 million to a super PAC supporting Paxton, whom polling suggests is trailing Talarico in the traditionally conservative state. Texas is a large state with several expensive media markets, making a strong fundraising apparatus even more crucial.
As of October 1, Republicans accounted for 61 percent of future ad reservations, AdImpact reported. Issue groups had reserved $272 million for Republicans and $155 million for Democrats. Republicans led Democrats in terms of reservations by $32 million in Ohio, $19 million in Michigan, $47 million in Texas and $11 million in Maine.
The difference underscores that while campaign cash is important, outside spending continues to shape the elections.
Where Key Senate Races Stand Three Weeks Before Midterms
Polls suggest control of the Senate remains competitive in the final weeks of the campaign, with both major parties having a chance at winning. On prediction markets, Democrats had a 63 percent chance of winning the Senate on Kalshi and a 65 percent chance on Polymarket as of Thursday.
Alaska
Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is facing a competitive challenge from Democrat Mary Peltola, a former U.S. representative.
Trump won Alaska by around 13 points in 2024, but the state has become less solidly conservative over the past few decades. As Democrats gain ground in cities like Anchorage and Fairbanks, Republicans’ statewide margins have narrowed from 31 points in 2000 to about 13 points in 2024 in presidential elections.
The latest polls showed a close race. Peltola led by 2 points, 50 percent to 48 percent, in a recent survey from InsiderAdvantage conducted October 9-10 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
A survey from The New York Times and Siena University showed Peltola up 7 points, 50 percent to 43 percent. It surveyed 504 likely voters September 24-October 1, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.
Georgia
In battleground Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is seen as having an edge over Republican Representative Mike Collins.
Georgia leaned toward Republicans for most of the 2000s and 2010s but emerged as a battleground due to growth around Atlanta and its blue-trending suburbs. Republicans have hoped that Trump’s victory two years ago could signal a potential for the state to be competitive again this year, but Ossoff has led polling.
Ossoff led by 8 points in an InsiderAdvantage poll, 50 percent to 42 percent, that surveyed 1,200 likely voters September 22-23. No margin of error was mentioned.
He also led a YouGov poll by 10 points, 52 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 3,071 likely voters September 15-18 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.
Iowa
Iowa, once a battleground state that shifted rightward over the past decade, has become one of the most competitive Senate races between Republican Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek.
Iowa, which stands to face impacts from his tariffs and high diesel prices due to its important agricultural base, backed Trump by 13 points in 2024, but polls have been competitive in the race to succeed Republican Joni Ernst.
Turek was up by a single point, 47 percent to 46 percent, in a recent YouGov poll of 2,245 likely voters conducted October 6-12. But Hinson led an Emerson College poll, by two points, 47 percent to 45 percent among 650 likely voters October 5-6. The YouGov poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, while Emerson's was 3.8.
Kansas
Hamilton, a pastor, has made a competitive race in Kansas against Marshall, a doctor who has faced criticism after The New York Times reported that he allegedly sued more than 700 patients over unpaid bills. The state has been seen as a tougher lift for Democrats, but the Cook Political Report recently reclassified it as a toss-up.
Marshall was up by a single point, 48 percent to 47 percent, in the latest InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters October 13-14. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
Hamilton led by 3 points in a YouGov poll of 2,253 likely voters September 24-October 4, with 48 percent support compared to the Republican’s 45 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
Maine
Maine’s Senate race is expected to be one of the closest of the midterms. Republican Senator Susan Collins is running against Democrat Troy Jackson, the former Maine Senate president in a state Trump lost by 7 points in 2024.
Collins, however, has been able to win in the past due to her personal popularity and moderate image.
Jackson led by 2 points in a Suffolk University poll, conducted among 500 likely voters October 8-11, 49 percent to 47 percent. Jackson also held a 4-point lead among 800 likely voters in a poll from The Washington Post and George Mason University, 50 percent to 46 percent. The Suffolk poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, while the Post's was 3.6.
Michigan
Michigan is a closely divided battleground that narrowly backed Trump in 2024 and is expected to again be competitive as Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican former Representative Mike Rogers compete to succeed retiring Senator Gary Peters.
A Quantus Insights poll showed a close race, giving El-Sayed a single-point lead, 48 percent to 47 percent, among 744 likely voters October 5-6. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
El-Sayed also led by 4 points in a survey from Mitchell Research & Communications, 45.6 percent to 41.4 percent. It polled 682 likely voters October 1 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Minnesota
Democrats have hoped Minnesota would not be competitive this year, as Trump lost it in all three of his presidential runs, but polls have suggested the race between Flanagan and Tafoya could be competitive.
Flanagan was up 3 points in a recent SurveyUSA poll, 45 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 718 likely voters October 9-12 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. She led by 4 points, 47 percent to 43 percent, in a Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. poll conducted October 5-7 with a 3.5 margin of error.
Nebraska
Trump easily carried Nebraska by more than 20 points in 2024, but independent Dan Osborn is seen as having the potential to upset GOP Senator Pete Ricketts.
Ricketts was up by 5 points in the latest co/efficient poll, 45 percent to 40 percent. It surveyed 1,113 likely voters September 28-30 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.92 percentage points.
A SurveyUSA poll gave Osborn a 4-point lead, 46 percent to 42 percent, with 4 percent preferring another candidate and 7 percent undecided. It surveyed 503 likely voters September 8-13, with a credibility interval of plus or minus 6.4 percentage points.
New Hampshire
Although Trump lost New Hampshire in all of his presidential runs, Republicans have hoped former Senator John Sununu could give them a chance to flip the seat—vacated by retiring Jeanne Shaheen, who is not seeking reelection—against Democrat Chris Pappas.
Democrats believe the national environment will help carry Pappas across the finish line, but Sununu is seen as a strong candidate as part of a popular political family.
Pappas, however, has led recent polling. A YouGov poll, conducted among 1,519 likely voters September 28-October 5, gave him an 8-point lead, 51 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. He also led a St. Anselm College/AARP poll by 7 points, 51 percent to 44 percent. It surveyed 1,042 likely voters September 28-29 and had a 3-point margin of error.
North Carolina
Former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, has established a consistent polling lead over Republican Michael Whatley in North Carolina, a swing state that Trump won by narrow margins in all three of his presidential runs.
Cooper led by 14 points in a SurveyUSA poll of 643 likely voters from October 7 to 11, 54 percent to 40 percent, with a credibility interval of plus or minus 5 percentage points. A survey from the East Carolina University Center for Survey Research showed him up 7 points, 50 percent to 43 percent, among 810 likely voters September 30-October 3. It had a credibility interval or plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Ohio
Once a battleground that backed President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Ohio has shifted rightward over the past decade, choosing Trump in all three of his presidential runs.
Former Senator Sherrod Brown is hoping to make a comeback against GOP Senator Jon Husted, the former lieutenant governor who was appointed to fill the vacancy left by Vice President JD Vance.
Brown led by 6 points in a poll from Bowling Green State University published on Friday, 48 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 1,000 likely voters September 29-October 9 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
A co/efficient poll, however, gave Husted a lead, 46 percent to 45 percent. It surveyed 925 likely voters October 5-6 and had a 3.49 margin of error.
South Carolina
A state that backed Trump by 18 points in 2024, South Carolina is not generally seen as competitive, but polling has suggested it is closer than usual this year.
The race is between Senator Darline Graham, who was appointed to the seat following the death of her brother, Senator Lindsey Graham, and Democrat Annie Andrews, a doctor who ran for Congress in 2022.
A recent poll from InsiderAdvantage gave Graham only a single-point lead, 46 percent to 45 percent, within the margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points. The survey was conducted September 28-29.
A recent poll from Trafalgar Group, a Republican pollster, also showed her with a 1-point lead, 43 percent to 42 percent, which fell within its margin of error of 2.9 points. It surveyed 1,087 likely voters September 23-25.
Texas
Despite its reputation as a Republican stronghold, Texas has one of the most competitive races this year between Talarico and Paxton, who defeated longtime Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary.
Talarico led by 4 points, 52 percent to 48 percent, in a recent ActiVote poll of 400 likely voters September 30-October 14, though Paxton led by a point, 49 percent to 48 percent, in an InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters October 13 to 14. The ActiVote had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, while the InsiderAdvantage’s was 2.83.
Paxton, who has faced a series of scandals, is viewed as particularly vulnerable, despite significant Republican investment. Democrats are optimistic about Talarico’s chances, even as they have fallen short in the past.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Dave Siminoff.