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We call this weekly column “Ugly Underdogs'” because every Saturday we make the case for a very bad college football team to cover the spread against a much better one. Over the years, we’ve grown accustomed to putting our hard-earned money on also-rans like Akron, Rice, UMass and New Mexico State. Last week, we sweated it out as Ball State covered a 36.5-point spread against Northwestern despite being down 31 points at the end of the third quarter. This week, we will change the pace a bit. We’re still betting on a terrible team, but this Saturday we’re straying into blueblood territory. Well, that is if you still consider Florida State a blueblood.
You could argue that the biggest surprise of the college football campaign is that Mike Norvell is still employed by Florida State.
There is the whole $46.7 million buyout that looms, and the Seminoles are also searching for their next athletic director, but FSU seems destined for its third consecutive losing season and its fifth in Norvell’s seven years in Tallahassee.
The shouts for Norvell’s axing are likely to get louder this week as the Seminoles travel to No. 3 Miami as 21.5-point underdogs before hitting their bye week. If Florida State is blown out for the second straight week, it could be curtains for Norvell.
It is almost certainly delaying the inevitable, but I think the Seminoles may be able to avoid getting embarrassed at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday.
I’m not saying that Florida State will win, or even make Miami sweat it out, but the Seminoles are competent enough to keep this thing within three scores. It’s a low bar, I know.
Miami’s numbers look stellar across the board, but it’s been aided by a soft schedule. Games involving the Hurricanes have boasted an average spread of 32 points, and the Hurricanes have only faced one team ranked inside the top 50 of Bill Connelly’s SP+ power rankings: Wake Forest.
While the Hurricanes were still a comfortable 13-point road victor against the Demon Deacons, Wake Forest did cover the spread by seven points, and the box score suggests it may have deserved even better. Miami gained 5.6 yards per play, while Wake Forest averaged 5.4, thanks to 312 passing yards.
For all of their warts, the Seminoles have started to build some momentum with the ball. They currently rank as the 35th-best offense in FBS, per SP+, and their 8.1 yards per pass is 41st in the country.
Nobody’s writing home to grandma about those numbers, but they do suggest that Florida State has a real shot at keeping pace with Miami long enough to land us inside the number.
And it’s not just the aerial attack that gives me some optimism. There’s also reason to believe that Florida State can be the first team this season to put a dent in Miami’s elite run defense.
QB Ashton Daniels has plenty of flaws, but he is a strong runner and is averaging 4.6 yards per carry and has 10 rushing touchdowns this season. His tailback, Ousmane Kromah, is on his way to a 1,000-yard campaign and is averaging 5.7 yards per rush.
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At the very least, Florida State’s running game stands a decent chance to become the first team to hit the 100-yard mark against Miami. That’s not a huge ask, but it will go a long way in making the Hurricanes at least a little uncomfortable on defense, something they haven’t really had to deal with in 2026.
Florida State is coming off a deflating loss to Louisville, but its two previous games against FBS opponents were more encouraging. The Seminoles hung with Alabama through three quarters and covered the spread on the road, and they crushed Virginia, 38-7, in Week 5.
Those results, along with some of the numbers, tell us that there is a semi-competent team somewhere in this mess. We just need to hope that it shows up at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday.
The Play: Florida State +21.5 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.