Prediction Markets: Football
Key Facts
—Prediction markets. Polymarket prices Flamengo at 54% and Palmeiras at 37% to win the Copa Libertadores, with US$35,312 traded. Flamengo were 42.5% a week ago, and the prices were read at 5:37 am ET on Friday 16 October 2026.
—Liga MX. Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the CFTC, gives Guadalajara 23% and América 19% to win the Clausura, on 542,549 contracts traded. Guadalajara host Tigres on Saturday 17 October at 7:07 pm ET.
—Brazil. Polymarket has Flamengo at 61.5% and Palmeiras at 36% for the Série A title, with US$48,958 traded. Flamengo lead by one point, 64 to 63.
—Africa. Polymarket makes Morocco the 33.5% favourite for the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations, ahead of Senegal at 15.4%. South Africa lead their qualifying group at 64.5%.
—Match markets. No single-match market met our US$10,000 threshold for this weekend, so this edition leads with the title races. The next Libertadores semi-final legs are on 21 and 22 October.
Prediction markets make Flamengo the favourite, at 54%, to win the Copa Libertadores, the Champions League of South America. The Brazilian club drew 0–0 at Estudiantes in the first leg of the semi-final on Thursday 15 October.
For readers in the United States, this weekend is about title races rather than single matches. Mexico’s Liga MX plays its twelfth round, and Brazilian and Argentine clubs sit one leg away from a Libertadores final.
No single-match market reached our US$10,000 threshold this week, unlike last week’s edition. We therefore show the season markets, with their change over the past week, and the fixtures that matter most to them.
What Prediction Markets Say
A price of 54% means a contract that pays US$1 if Flamengo win the Libertadores costs about 54 US cents. Prices are bets by traders, not forecasts by The Rio Times.
Polymarket counts volume in US dollars, while Kalshi counts contracts worth up to US$1 each. Many of these markets have only tens of thousands of dollars traded, so a single large bet can move a price.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
This Weekend’s Matches
No match-level market reached the threshold, so there are no win-draw-lose prices to report. The fixtures below are the ones that bear most directly on the title markets, with kick-off in Mexico City and in New York.
Mexico City is on UTC−6 all year, while New York is on Eastern Daylight Time until 1 November. Mexican kick-offs are therefore two hours later in ET.
Liga MX Apertura, round 12
Chivas play Tigres on Saturday 17 October at 5:07 pm in Guadalajara (7:07 pm ET), at the Estadio Akron. Guadalajara are fourth with 19 points and lead the Kalshi Clausura market.
León host América on Saturday at 7:00 pm in León (9:00 pm ET). América lead the table with 21 points, with one postponed match still to play, according to Fox Sports México.
Toluca host Atlético de San Luis on Saturday at 7:00 pm in Toluca (9:00 pm ET), at the Estadio Nemesio Díez. Toluca have 20 points, level with Querétaro, and lost 3–2 to Tigres in round 11.
Monterrey host Pachuca on Sunday 18 October at 7:00 pm in Monterrey (9:00 pm ET), at the Estadio BBVA. Friday’s round-12 games include Necaxa vs Atlas and Tijuana vs Puebla.
Cruz Azul drew 3–3 with Pumas in round 11 and have 17 points. They face FC Juárez on Saturday evening in Mexico City.
Brazil and the Libertadores
In Série A round 31, Palmeiras visit Athletico-PR on Saturday 17 October at 7:30 pm in Brasília (6:30 pm ET). Flamengo visit Bahia on Sunday 18 October at 6:30 pm in Brasília (5:30 pm ET), according to GC Mais.
Palmeiras won the first leg 2–1 at Fluminense at the Maracanã on Wednesday 14 October. Flaco López and Marlon Freitas scored for Palmeiras, and Wesley Natã replied in stoppage time.
Palmeiras host Fluminense at the Nubank Parque on Wednesday 21 October. Flamengo host Estudiantes at the Maracanã on Thursday 22 October at 9:30 pm in Brasília (8:30 pm ET).
The winners of the two ties meet in the final on Saturday 28 November at the Estadio Centenario in Montevideo. Both Brazilian sides therefore have a league game this weekend and a semi-final return in midweek.
Latin America Title Races
Mexico: a crowded Liga MX table
Polymarket’s Apertura winner market, with US$106,824 traded, prices América at 22.5%, Guadalajara at 16.5%, Toluca at 14.1% and Cruz Azul at 13.5%. América gained 6 points in a week, while Toluca fell 9.3 points from 23.4% after the loss to Tigres.
Kalshi’s Clausura champion market has 542,549 contracts traded and prices Guadalajara at 23%, América at 19%, León at 11% and Cruz Azul at 10%. Toluca and Santos Laguna are both at 6%.
The Clausura is the second tournament of the season, so this market looks far ahead. It still shows which clubs traders rate over the full season.
Polymarket’s market for second place in the Apertura puts América at 21.5%, Chivas at 17.5%, Toluca at 16.1% and Cruz Azul at 12%, with US$48,081 traded. These individual-finish markets are thinner than the title markets.
For the 2026–27 top scorer, Juan Brunetta leads at 15.2%, up from 10% a week ago, ahead of Paulinho at 9% and Juninho at 6%, with US$28,658 traded. Club América are 32.5% in the market for the largest goal difference, ahead of Toluca at 26.5%, on US$12,177.
Brazil: Flamengo lead by one point
Flamengo lead the Série A with 64 points after a 1–0 win over Fluminense on Sunday 11 October, with Carrascal scoring in the 52nd minute. Palmeiras are second with 63 points after a 4–1 win over Corinthians.
Polymarket prices Flamengo at 61.5% and Palmeiras at 36% for the title, with US$48,958 traded. A week ago Flamengo were 68.5% and Palmeiras 30%, so the gap has narrowed by about 13 points.
At the bottom, Corinthians (32 points) and Internacional (32) are 16th and 17th, and Grêmio (31) are 18th after a 1–1 draw between Grêmio and Internacional. Corinthians have now lost eight games in a row, according to O Povo.
Polymarket’s relegation market, with US$18,156 traded, lists Remo at 97.9% and Chapecoense at 97.5%. Internacional are at 61.3%, Grêmio at 51% and Corinthians at 49.5%.
Copa Libertadores: Flamengo 54%, Palmeiras 37%
Flamengo are 54% on Polymarket, up from 42.5% a week ago. Palmeiras are at 37%, up from 26.5%, and Estudiantes de La Plata are at 19.8%.
The goalless draw in La Plata keeps the Flamengo–Estudiantes tie open for the Maracanã. Palmeiras’ 2–1 away win explains their rise, because a draw at home would now be enough for them.
Relegation elsewhere in the region
In Colombia’s Primera A, Polymarket prices Boyacá Chicó at 81% and Jaguares at 62.5% to be relegated, with US$20,992 traded. In Peru’s Liga 1, UTC Cajamarca are at 68%, Deportivo Moquegua at 54.5% and FC Cajamarca at 43.5%, on US$19,607.
These are “teams relegated” markets, so several clubs can each be priced above 50%. Peru’s market has under US$20,000 traded, so its prices can swing on a single order.
Africa
Every African market above our threshold this week is about the Africa Cup of Nations, the 2027 edition of which is hosted jointly by Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda under the name Pamoja. No African league or club-competition market met the US$10,000 line.
Polymarket’s tournament winner market has US$16,790 traded. It prices Morocco at 33.5%, Senegal at 15.4%, Ivory Coast at 11.2%, Egypt at 7.8%, South Africa at 7.5% and Ghana at 6.6%.
The group-winner markets run until 31 March 2027, according to Polymarket. South Africa are 64.5% to win Group D, ahead of Guinea at 29.5%, after beating Eritrea 5–0 to lead the group with six points, according to EWN Sport.
Egypt are 69.5% in Group B, ahead of Angola at 26.5%. Mali are 60.5% in Group K, Burkina Faso 58.5% in Group F, Tunisia 56.5% in Group H and Nigeria 61.5% in Group L.
Each of these group markets has between US$10,663 and US$15,985 traded. That is small next to the Liga MX and Libertadores books.
What It Means for US Readers
Mexican and Brazilian clubs have large followings among Mexican-American and Brazilian-American fans. The prices give those fans, and anyone new to the sport, a quick read on who traders think will win.
Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the CFTC. We link to our own coverage and to public data only, and we do not offer betting tips or links to betting sites.
For the week ahead, the Libertadores return legs on 21 and 22 October are the most likely events to move prices. Our daily Latin America Sports Daily covers the results.
Our live boards are on the Latin America odds hub and the Africa odds hub. They update through the day, so the prices there may differ from those read here.
What Is Not Known
We do not have confirmed line-ups or injury lists for round 12, and weather at the Mexican grounds could change tempo. Fixtures are also subject to change.
Prices in thin markets can move on a single trade, and Série A sides often rotate players around Libertadores games. Both effects can shift the title markets before Sunday night.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who do prediction markets favour to win the Copa Libertadores?
Polymarket prices Flamengo at 54% and Palmeiras at 37%, with Estudiantes de La Plata at 19.8%, after US$35,312 traded. Each club has its own yes-or-no contract, so the three prices add up to more than 100%.
Who is the favourite for the Liga MX title?
It depends on the tournament. Polymarket prices América at 22.5% to win the Apertura, while Kalshi, a US exchange regulated by the CFTC, has Guadalajara at 23% and América at 19% for the Clausura, the second tournament of the season.
Who is favourite to win the Brazilian Série A?
Flamengo, at 61.5% on Polymarket, against 36% for Palmeiras. Flamengo lead the table by one point, 64 to 63, after round 30.
What do the markets say about AFCON 2027?
Polymarket prices Morocco at 33.5% to win the tournament, ahead of Senegal at 15.4% and Ivory Coast at 11.2%. The market has US$16,790 traded, so the prices are a rough guide.
Are these predictions or bets?
They are prices set by real-money traders on Polymarket and Kalshi, not forecasts by The Rio Times. We show them next to league tables and results, never instead of them.