The international order is undergoing a profound transformation as global power shifts away from its traditional Western centers toward Asia and the Global South. Against this backdrop, improving relations between China and the United States has become increasingly important-not only for the two powers themselves, but also for the stability, security and prosperity of the wider world.
This was a central theme of the 12th North Pavilion Dialogue, organized by the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University. At a public forum on October 16, four prominent international affairs experts discussed the changing balance of power, the growing influence of middle powers, the strategic choices facing the Global South and the future of China-US relations.
A world moving beyond the old order
Shivshankar Menon, India’s former national security adviser and foreign secretary, argued that the world is returning to a historical pattern in which power is distributed among a wider range of countries rather than concentrated in a small number of dominant states.
During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union accounted for a substantial share of global military power. Today, that concentration has diminished, creating a more complicated international environment in which middle powers and developing nations have greater opportunities to influence global affairs.
Menon suggested that the growing interest in BRICS reflects the desire of many countries to find alternatives to an international system they consider increasingly inadequate. Rather than treating the apparent decline of the previous order as a crisis in itself, he viewed it as part of a broader transition.
Despite geopolitical tensions, the world remains economically interconnected. Global trade continues to link countries through a shared economic system, making a complete separation into competing economic and ideological blocs neither inevitable nor desirable. Menon pointed to Asia as an example of pragmatic diplomacy, noting that countries such as India and China can continue managing disagreements even when their bilateral relations become difficult.
China-US relations and the search for strategic stability
Yu Tiejun, a professor at Peking University’s School of International Studies and president of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies, said the international system is moving toward multipolarity as Washington’s willingness and capacity to maintain its traditional leadership evolve. Although the United States remains the world’s most powerful country, domestic challenges and changing international dynamics are reshaping its global role.
Yu emphasized that China seeks a stable, secure and prosperous international environment. He argued that China’s global initiatives should be translated into practical measures that contribute to international cooperation. In his view, Beijing and Washington can establish a constructive relationship based on strategic stability, mutual respect, fairness and reciprocity. Other major powers also have a responsibility to support global development and prevent instability.
The challenge, however, lies in turning diplomatic principles into tangible results. Strategic competition between the two countries spans trade, technology, security and regional influence. Without sustained communication and mechanisms to manage disagreements, even limited disputes could escalate and undermine international confidence. A more stable relationship would give both governments greater scope to cooperate where their interests overlap, without requiring either side to abandon its national priorities.
The Global South must promote cooperation, not rivalry
Rizal Sukma, a senior fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta, cautioned against treating the Global South as a single, unified political bloc. Countries across Asia, Africa and Latin America have different economic circumstances, security concerns and foreign policy priorities. Consequently, the term means different things to different countries and should not be used to deepen divisions among developing nations.
Sukma argued that the concept should encourage cooperation rather than create another arena for geopolitical competition. Middle powers may have limited capacity to resolve the rivalry between Washington and Beijing, but they can provide diplomatic platforms where leaders meet, communicate and explore shared interests. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), for example, offers a regional framework for dialogue among countries with differing strategic positions.
He also stressed that avoiding a forced choice between China and the United States can serve the interests of both major powers. When other countries retain the freedom to pursue independent foreign policies, they can help preserve regional stability and reduce pressure to divide the international community into opposing camps.
A Multipolar World needs greater responsibility
Charles A. Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and professor of international affairs at Georgetown University, described the redistribution of global power as a historic shift. After centuries in which Europe and North America dominated the international system, influence is increasingly moving toward Asia and the Global South.
Kupchan suggested that the world may remain heavily shaped by the United States and China in terms of concentrated power, while becoming more multipolar in practical diplomacy. Countries increasingly have multiple partners and alternatives, making international alignments more flexible and unpredictable. This creates opportunities for independent diplomacy, but it also complicates efforts to build consensus on global challenges.
For Kupchan, the central priority is to find ways for countries to cooperate across geopolitical and ideological divides. In an interconnected world, economic disruptions, climate change, regional conflicts and development challenges cannot be contained within national borders. If Washington and Beijing allow their competition to dominate every aspect of their relationship, the consequences will extend well beyond their bilateral ties.
He identified issues including Iran, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, climate change and international development as areas where cooperation could produce broader benefits. Rather than competing exclusively for influence in troubled regions, the two powers could explore opportunities for diplomatic coordination and practical collaboration. Such efforts would require both governments to reduce tensions that have accumulated over more than a decade and develop greater confidence in each other’s intentions.
Cooperation is a global necessity
The discussions at Peking University highlighted a fundamental reality: the emerging international order will depend not only on how power is distributed, but also on how responsibly countries exercise it. The growing influence of middle powers and the Global South offers opportunities to broaden international decision-making, provided those opportunities are not undermined by competing blocs and strategic mistrust.
China-US cooperation alone cannot resolve every international crisis, nor will it eliminate the significant differences between the two countries. Nevertheless, their decisions will have far-reaching consequences for global trade, security, climate policy and development. Establishing reliable channels of communication, managing disagreements and identifying common interests are therefore essential steps toward a more predictable international environment.
The principle that countries must “grow together, or sink together” captures the stakes of this transition. In a world where economies and security challenges are deeply interconnected, confrontation carries costs that reach far beyond the immediate participants. A more stable China-US relationship, complemented by constructive engagement from middle powers and developing nations, could help turn a period of geopolitical uncertainty into an opportunity for shared progress.
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