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Notre Dame fans and skeptics have been waiting seven weeks for this moment.
For the first time this season, the second-ranked Fighting Irish will take the field opposite a ranked opponent.
And while most of the college football world is considering this trip to Provo to take on No. 8 BYU a litmus-test game for Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame, the betting market is not so sure.
The Irish are 10.5-point road favorites at LaVell Edwards Stadium on Saturday night.
Notre Dame vs. BYU odds, prediction
This is also a litmus test for BYU.
The Cougars are 5-0, but they’ve looked unbalanced at times, despite playing a pretty easy schedule. Their Week 2 win over Arizona looks impressive, knowing what we now know about the Wildcats, but they’ve yet to face anybody close to the caliber of Notre Dame.
And they’ll face the Irish without star running back LJ Martin.
After racking up 1,305 yards and five scores on the ground last season, Martin looked like he was on his way to a Heisman-hopeful season before an injury stopped him in his tracks in Week 5.
Martin’s loss is a critical blow to an attack that now looks one-note. If you can contain quarterback Bear Bachmeier, the Cougars don’t have many other outs.
Bachmeier has put together a decent first half, but he’ll need to find another level if the Cougars are going to upset Notre Dame.
Martin’s injury lowers the ceiling of the offense, which puts more pressure on BYU’s defense to drive the bus in Provo. So far, they’ve answered the bell. The Cougars’ defense grades out as the ninth-best unit in the country, per SP+, and they rank ninth in yards per play allowed and points allowed this season.
The only problem is that they haven’t seen an offense like Notre Dame, yet.
The Irish are a picture of efficiency with the ball. You can set your clock to them.
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They rank inside the top 10 in FBS in yards per play, offensive success rate and points per drive. Their only flaw seems to be converting on third down (37th), but that’s because they’ve faced the sixth-fewest third downs in the nation.
Notre Dame’s ability to wear out a defense will mean that Bachmeier and the Cougars will need to answer the Irish blow for blow. It’s hard to be confident that BYU can do that given its body of work this season.
The offense looked better against Iowa State, but it was still too reliant on Bachmeier to do it all. And two weeks ago, they posted 3.5 yards per play against TCU.
CJ Carr and the Irish are going up against a terrific defense in a hostile environment, but the numbers suggest they’re built to handle this moment.
The Play: Notre Dame -10.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.