BRAZIL · UNITED STATES
Key Facts
- The country Brazil is Latin America’s largest democracy, a country of about 210 million people that votes in a presidential runoff on Sunday 25 October.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- What happened Alexandre Ramagem, convicted of plotting a coup, has been free in Florida since 15 April 2026 while his asylum request is pending.
- The sentence Brazil’s Supreme Court sentenced Ramagem to 16 years in prison in September 2025, and he reached the United States on 11 September 2025.
- The extradition Brazil’s Ministry of Justice asked Washington to hand him over on 30 December 2025, and no answer has been made public.
- The US position The Department of Homeland Security says he overstayed his visa but also that a pending asylum claim gives him no legal status.
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.6% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (23 October, 5:24 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 76% (Lula: 24% and 25%), as of 23 October, 5:40 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
The Brazil spy chief Alexandre Ramagem, sentenced to 16 years, remains free in Florida, CIPER Chile reported on Friday 23 October 2026. The story lands two days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff between President Lula and conservative Flávio Bolsonaro.
For US readers, the case tests whether Washington will send a convicted foreign official home or let an asylum claim keep him in Florida. The latest Brazil election polls call the race close, while Brazil election odds favour Flávio.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 50.9%, Lula 49.1%
40 national polls from 20 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
Who the Brazil Spy Chief Is
The Brazil spy chief ran Abin, the civilian intelligence agency, under former president Jair Bolsonaro, then served as a deputy for his Liberal Party. Brazil’s Supreme Court sentenced him in September 2025 to 16 years for plotting to overturn the 2022 election.
He left Brazil days later, crossing into Guyana on 9 September 2025 and flying to the United States on 11 September, according to CIPER Chile. Brazil’s Congress stripped him of his seat in December 2025.
How He Stayed Free in the US
Orlando police stopped the Brazil spy chief on 13 April 2026 and handed him to US immigration agents, who said he had overstayed his visa. ICE, the US immigration enforcement agency, released him two days later.
Metrópoles, a Brasília news site, reported that he was freed because he had a pending political asylum request. Homeland Security told CIPER Chile and Agência Pública that such a request gives no legal status, and it has not explained the release.
Brazil’s Extradition Request
Brazil’s Ministry of Justice formally asked the United States to extradite the Brazil spy chief on 30 December 2025. Metrópoles reported in May that Justice Minister Wellington Lima was still waiting for an answer.
Lima said the April detention did not come from the extradition request but from US immigration law. So the request, which Brazil sent through its embassy in Washington, remains open while Ramagem lives in Florida.
The Family Accused of Helping Him
Brazilian federal police files cited by CIPER Chile and Agência Pública, a Brazilian investigative outlet, say the De Mello family housed Ramagem in Florida. Rodrigo de Mello, known as Rodrigo Cataratas, was sentenced in February 2026 to 16 years and 7 months over illegal gold mining on Yanomami land.
Pública reports that Ramagem stayed in the family’s Sole Mia apartment in Miami from 11 September to mid-November 2025. The apartment rents for about R$20,000 (about US$4,000) a month, and Rodrigo denies helping him hide.
What Brazil’s Courts Have Done
Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered Rodrigo’s arrest in December 2025 for helping Ramagem flee. Justice Cármen Lúcia rejected his request for release on 19 October 2026, and the warrant stays open because police cannot find him.
His son Celso, accused of running the mining finances, was arrested in Manaus in December 2025 and wears an ankle monitor, per Agência Pública. His family says he is innocent.
What It Means for US Readers
The Brazil spy chief case shows how US immigration treats a foreign official convicted at home, which matters for ties strained by tariffs. Washington has already called Ramagem an illegal immigrant, so the next step is up to the courts and the State Department.
Investors in Brazilian bonds watch the runoff, because Flávio Bolsonaro has promised a broad amnesty for his father and others convicted in the coup case. A Flávio win could soften Brazil’s push to bring the Brazil spy chief home.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro 76.6% to win the runoff and Lula 23.5% (23 October, 5:24 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$193.2 million in total bets.
These are bets, not polls, and they can move quickly on news. Over the previous 24 hours Flávio’s price slipped by 1.0 point.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.7% · Lula 23.5% (US$193 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 76% · Lula 25%
As of 23 October, 5:40 pm ET (22:40 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known when a US judge will rule on the Brazil spy chief’s asylum claim or answer Brazil’s extradition request. DHS has not said why he was released after two days.
The outcome of the runoff may also shape how hard Brazil pushes the case. Neither government has said whether Ramagem could be sent home before a final ruling.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Background: Brazil Tax Reform 2026 Replaces Five Taxes With Two VATs.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is Alexandre Ramagem?
He is the former head of Brazil’s intelligence agency Abin and a former congressman. Brazil’s Supreme Court sentenced him to 16 years in September 2025 for a coup plot.
Why is the Brazil spy chief still free in the US?
He entered the United States on 11 September 2025 and applied for asylum after his visa ran out. A pending claim led to his release by ICE on 15 April 2026, according to Brazilian and Chilean reports.
Has Brazil asked the US to hand him over?
Yes, Brazil’s Ministry of Justice sent a formal extradition request on 30 December 2025. No US answer has been made public.
What does the US government say?
The Department of Homeland Security says Ramagem is in the country illegally because he overstayed his visa. It adds that a pending asylum request confers no legal status and that he will receive due process.
How does this connect to the Brazil runoff?
The runoff on Sunday 25 October pits Lula against Flávio Bolsonaro, who has promised an amnesty for people convicted in the coup case. Ramagem’s fate could depend on who wins.
Sources: CIPER Chile, 23 October 2026; Agência Pública, 22 October 2026; Metrópoles, 27 May 2026; Metrópoles, 16 April 2026.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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