Nollywood data void leaves investors in N2.7trn sector flying blind

Nigerian filmmakers spend hundreds of millions of naira on productions, but the lack of a standardised system for tracking budgets, revenue, and ownership rights makes it hard for investors to judge the value of a movie.

BusinessDay’s findings showed producers have become more willing to say what their films cost, as budgets range from a few million naira for independent releases to hundreds of millions for cinema titles.

However, investors also need to know how much the movies earn, who owns the rights, what obligations attach to those rights, and how much revenue the producer retains after distribution costs.

Those records remain difficult to obtain across an industry where films are released through cinemas, streaming platforms, television and independent digital channels, often under different commercial arrangements.

But a production cost does not establish a film’s value as a commercial asset, and the records needed to close that gap largely do not exist.

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“One of the major gaps in the Nigerian film industry is the absence of an auditable structure for tracking production costs, revenue and the overall commercial performance of films,” said Shaibu Husseini, Director-General of the National Film and Video Censors Board.

“We know how to produce films, but we have not developed a system that adequately captures our production capacity, particularly because many filmmakers produce and release their films independently without going through a structure that can track their activities,” He added.

The problem extends beyond measuring the size of Nollywood. Without consistent financial records, investors have limited grounds for comparing projects, assessing risks or estimating the returns they could earn from financing a production.

A growing industry, an uncertain value

Nigeria’s motion pictures, sound recording and music production sector contributed about N2.70 trillion to gross domestic product in 2025, up from N2.22 trillion in 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics’ GDP data.

Other estimates offer different measures of the industry’s economic footprint. Ten years ago, an article in the International Monetary Fund’s Finance & Development magazine put Nollywood’s contribution at N853.9 billion, equivalent to $7.2 billion at the time, or 1.42 per cent of Nigeria’s GDP. It also cited an estimate that the industry generated at least $590 million annually.

The US International Trade Administration estimated that Nigeria’s wider media and entertainment industry, including film and music, contributed about N1.97 trillion ($1.4 billion) to GDP in 2023. Its country guide also projected that the sector could generate $10.8 billion in revenue.

The figures cover different periods, activities, and measures of economic performance, so they cannot be compared directly or treated as valuations of Nollywood.

The NBS category combines film with sound recording and music production, while the US trade estimate covers the wider media and entertainment industry. Neither establishes the market value of individual films or the returns available to investors.

That distinction lies at the heart of the industry’s data problem. Nigeria can estimate the economic contribution of entertainment without having consistent records of what individual films cost, earn across distribution channels or retain in intellectual property rights. For investors, those details determine whether a production represents a sound commercial proposition.

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Wide range of costs

Toyin Abraham, a Nigerian actor and producer, said she spent close to N500 million on Malaika, which opened in cinemas in December 2023. She previously put the budget for Ijakumo: The Born Again Stripper at almost N200 million.

Editi Effiong spent about $1 million on The Black Book, released on Netflix in 2023. Kunle Afolayan’s October 1 was reported to have cost about $2 million. Steve Gukas has said 93 Days, which dramatises Nigeria’s response to the Ebola outbreak, cost more than N400 million.

At the lower end, independent productions can cost less than N10 million. Scriptwriter Emy Josephs told BusinessDay in October 2024 that a YouTube film could be made for between N4 million and N6 million, an estimate other filmmakers supported. Okusaga Adeoluwa, the Big Brother Naija 2021 contestant known as Saga, said his 2025 YouTube film Falling Notes cost nearly N50 million.

He attributed the higher spend to extended multi-location shooting, high-end cameras and original music, which required studio costs for songwriting, production, mixing and mastering.

Filmmakers who spoke to BusinessDay said some budgets cover production alone, while others may include extra expenses or reflect different exchange rates and accounting practices.

They said the distinction matters because the cost of making a film is not the same as the total invested in it.

BusinessDay’s findings showed that the marketing, distribution, financing and promotion can all raise the amount a producer must recover before turning a profit.

A producer can disclose a N100 million production budget without counting the money spent to release and market the film, while another may have had locations, transport or accommodation provided free, which lowers cash spending but still represents resources used.

Husseini said the industry needs an auditable system that shows how much is spent on films, how the money is raised and what the productions earn.

Reliable figures, he argued, would give investors a clearer basis for weighing the risks and potential returns of financing Nigerian films.

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Beyond the box office

Cinema receipts offer one of the most visible measures of a film’s performance, but they do not capture all the income a production can generate.

A title can earn money from cinema exhibition, streaming licences, television rights, international distribution and other licensing. Some productions also bring in brand partnerships and similar deals.

A film can earn money through cinema exhibition, streaming licences, television rights, international distribution and other licensing agreements. Some productions also secure brand partnerships and related commercial deals.

Even cinema revenue does not translate directly into earnings for the producer. Ticket sales are subject to taxes and revenue-sharing arrangements involving exhibitors and distributors, with the producer receiving the amount due under the relevant agreements.

A film that grosses N100 million at the box office has therefore not necessarily earned N100 million for its maker. Equally, a film with modest cinema takings may still be valuable if its owner holds rights that can earn money through other channels, according to multiple sources.

Netflix’s spending shows the scale of activity outside cinemas. The streaming service reported investing $23.6 million in Nigeria between 2016 and 2022 and licensing 283 Nigerian titles, alongside three commissioned titles. It estimated its activities supported 5,140 jobs in the Nigerian economy. Most of the money went to licensing local titles rather than commissioning originals.

That figure is an industry-level estimate, not a breakdown by film. It does not show what Netflix paid for any one title, how much the producer kept or what return a given production generated.

This is the gap at the centre of film valuation: without title-level data on licensing income, production spending and retained rights, a film’s full financial performance is hard to establish, even when its cinema gross is public.

The problem is compounded by the absence of consistent reporting on marketing expenses, distribution fees, taxes, financing costs and other deductions. A film may generate substantial revenue without delivering a comparable return to the people who financed it.

For an investor, gross receipts alone are insufficient. What matters is the income available to recover the original capital and generate a return after costs and contractual obligations have been met.

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Who owns the movie?

Value also depends on who owns the intellectual property and which rights the owner can exploit. A producer who finances a film may not keep every right to distribute, broadcast, adapt or license it. Agreements can divide rights among producers, investors, distributors and streaming platforms, which can limit what any one party earns.

A producer who finances a film may not retain every right to distribute, broadcast, adapt or license it. Contracts can divide those rights among producers, investors, distributors and streaming platforms, restricting the income any one party can earn.

The World Intellectual Property Organisation has identified informality and weak documentation of film ownership as structural problems in Nollywood. Its analysis highlights the importance of a clear chain of title, which establishes who owns particular rights, when seeking finance and access to international distribution markets.

Two films with similar production budgets and box-office receipts can therefore have very different commercial values.

As a result, two films with similar budgets and box-office results can be worth very different amounts. One producer may keep broad rights and the ability to earn from the film for years. Another may have handed over key rights in a distribution or licensing deal.

Husseini made the same point, saying such differences in retained and transferred rights can leave comparable films with vastly different commercial values.

He called for accountability mechanisms and warned against a system “where the operator of an exhibition or distribution structure makes money while the filmmaker who created the content receives little or nothing.”

A proper valuation, then, has to look past production cost to the rights attached to the film, how long those rights last, existing contractual obligations and the likelihood of future earnings. For an investor, those details determine what is actually being financed and which income streams can repay the capital. Without documentation, a film’s commercial potential is hard to assess even when its budget is known.

Read also: What Nollywood must learn from global music giants

Piracy and the revenue gap

Unauthorised distribution presents another difficulty for investors trying to estimate the income a film can generate.

The US International Trade Administration’s September 2025 country guide identifies copyright piracy as a persistent challenge for Nigeria’s media and entertainment sector. It cites estimates that piracy could account for up to 40 per cent of lost income for Nollywood, while noting difficulties in monetising digital content effectively.

A film may attract a large audience without generating corresponding income for its rights holders if copies circulate through unauthorised channels. That makes audience reach an unreliable substitute for evidence of commercial performance.

For investors, the relevant questions include whether a producer can demonstrate legitimate sales, what protection exists against unauthorised distribution and how effectively rights can be enforced across markets.

The availability of reliable data on licensing income, legitimate distribution and piracy losses would help distinguish films with strong commercial prospects from those whose audiences are not translating into earnings.

These concerns are not new. An IMF Finance & Development article published in June 2016 identified piracy, uncertain intellectual property rights, underdeveloped distribution and limited access to financing among the constraints facing Nollywood at the time.

The industry has since expanded its use of digital distribution and international streaming platforms, but the commercial benefits still depend on how effectively producers protect their rights and convert demand into revenue.

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Counting the films

The lack of consistent records also makes it difficult to compare Nigerian films or to tell whether rising production costs are producing stronger returns.

Husseini said the problem starts with counting. He questioned claims that Nigeria makes thousands of films a year, given that there is no verifiable list of titles to back them up.

“Last month, the number we recorded was 100, but I know that figure does not reflect the industry’s actual production capacity,” he said, adding that many filmmakers release content on their own without registering or classifying their films.

Compliance with the Board’s registration and classification rules stood at about 40 per cent when he spoke, he said. The Board is working to raise that figure and to build a catalogue of registered films covering 1994 to 2024.

The aim, Husseini said, is a reliable record of production activity that lets the industry report verifiable figures. He said registration should be seen not mainly as a way to raise revenue but as a means of building a data bank for Nigerian films.

“There can be no meaningful industry development without reliable data,” he said. “We want to build a system that enables us to report credible production figures regularly to Nigerians, the National Bureau of Statistics and the international community.”