Lorne Gunter: Pro-Canada side needs to win big to stop separatist movement

I spent the Thanksgiving weekend in the heart of Alberta separatist country — a rural section of Premier Danielle Smith’s own riding.

While the riding itself may not vote for the province to leave Canada in the Oct. 19 referendum, I’m sure the poll where my in-laws live will.

The city of Medicine Hat (population 65,000), the agriculture and natural gas hub that is the anchor of the constituency, will likely vote pro-Canada and carry the day.

But out on the prairie near Brooks, I didn’t see a single pro-Canada sign. The four corners of many rural junctions had signs urging voters to “Send Ottawa a message” or “Let Alberta decide.” Lots of Alberta flags, too. But not one of the “Forever Canadians” or other “remain” signs like the ones that have sprung up like mushrooms in my suburban Edmonton neighbourhood.

I’m still confident the pro-Canada side will win next Monday (even if we won’t learn the preliminary results until Wednesday).

In poll after poll all summer and fall, the pro-Canada side has outperformed the separatist side by three-to-one.

The latest poll from Leger found 70 per cent support for staying in Canada, just 22 per cent for beginning the process of holding a second referendum (this one binding) on whether or not Alberta should leave Confederation.

The Leger pollsters also found 91 per cent of federalist voters intended to turn up at one of the advance polls this week or to a polling station on voting day. Just 71 per cent of separatists showed similar commitment.

This puts to rest one of the deepest fears of federalist organizers — low turnout that might give the separatists an advantage.

Even if the separatists don’t win the referendum, a solid showing due to low turnout — say 35 per cent to 40 per cent — would make the separatists an immoveable force in Alberta politics for years.

The pro-Confederation side not only needs to win, but to win big to avoid encouraging the separatists.

Low turnout, though, shouldn’t be an issue. Leger found 77 per cent of Albertans planned to vote. And Elections Alberta, the provincial elections regulator, is preparing for a turnout as high as 85 per cent.

So let’s assume for a minute the pro-federalist side wins handily next week. That seems a safe bet given that a byelection last June in the riding of Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills — fertile ground for a separatist movement — was won by the governing United Conservative Party (UCP) 61 per cent to 18 per cent over the separatists.

But what happens after a federalist win? Separatism is a genie that cannot be put back in its bottle.

Even if the separatists fail to win enough votes to be a force in provincial politics, they have pledged to make Premier Danielle Smith’s political life hell, which they could do.

The separatist movement grew out of the Smith’s own base in the UCP. She was elected UCP leader in the fall of 2022 largely with the support of anti-vaxxers in a Trump-like movement called Take Back Alberta.

She has been unable to shake that personal history since. Indeed, she called the upcoming referendum largely to take the heat off the separatists’ attempt to force a vote or replace her.

Those forces are not going away quickly after a separatist loss.

Smith has opened a wound in provincial politics generally that won’t be easily healed.

To be a real factor in Alberta politics, the separatists would need to form their own party, run their own candidates and get them elected to the provincial legislature, in much the same way the Parti Quebecois has.

The Alberta separatists have so far shown no interest in their own party, nor any ability to organize one. They seem quite content to snipe from the sidelines and organize leadership reviews against Smith.

However, the damage the referendum has done to Alberta political culture will not go away soon.