Before the parliamentary audit of government agencies began, the gap between the two main parties was considerable. The Democratic Party led and the People Power Party trailed. But the mood reversed after the audit opened on the 6th of this month. Some polls now show the People Power Party ahead of the Democratic Party, and even surveys where the Democratic Party keeps its lead show the margin narrowing sharply.
What merits attention is not only the People Power Party's rise. Signs of change are appearing among Democratic Party supporters. The party's advantage has weakened in the capital region, and some polls show steep declines among voters in their 40s and 50s and among self-identified progressives, groups that have formed its base.
Not all of the support that left the Democratic Party went to the People Power Party. Some polls show the Rebuilding Korea Party gaining, pointing to a possible dispersion of support within the progressive camp. Below is a look at how the standings shifted around the audit and what the underlying changes in public sentiment look like, based on major polling data.
Audit Opens, Democratic Party Loses Its Lead
In a Realmeter poll conducted in the first week of October, just before the audit began, the Democratic Party stood at 42.5%, leading the People Power Party at 38.4% by 4.1 percentage points. Within a week, the two parties had traded places.
In Realmeter's second-week October survey, commissioned by the Asia Business Daily, the People Power Party drew 41.3% and the Democratic Party 35.5%. Democratic Party support fell 7.0 percentage points in a week while the People Power Party rose 2.9 percentage points, flipping the margin from a 4.1-point Democratic Party lead to a 5.8-point People Power Party lead.
Realmeter said the People Power Party had escalated its attacks on the government early in the audit through security issues such as a landmine explosion in the Demilitarized Zone, the move to call Supreme Court Chief Justice Jo Hee-de as a witness, and the ensuing impeachment dispute. Combined with controversies over government policies including a full survey of farmland holdings and investment in the United States, the party appears to have gained from criticism directed at the government and its ruling party, the pollster said.
The People Power Party held its lead into the third week of the audit, drawing 40.9% to the Democratic Party's 36.2%, a margin of 4.7 percentage points. Democratic Party support edged up but did not reverse the new alignment.
The National Barometer Survey also showed the gap closing. In its fifth-week September poll, taken before the audit, the Democratic Party stood at 35% and the People Power Party at 25%. In the third-week October survey released on the 15th of this month, the figures were 33% and 28%, narrowing the gap from 10 percentage points to 5.
Gallup Korea, by contrast, found both parties roughly flat. In the third week of October, the Democratic Party drew 36% and the People Power Party 27%, a 9-point gap. Both rose 1 percentage point from the previous survey.
61% Rate Housing Policy Negatively as Democratic Party Slips in Capital Region
The Democratic Party's advantage has weakened in the capital region as well since the audit began. In the National Barometer Survey's fifth-week September poll, the Democratic Party drew 28% in Seoul to the People Power Party's 24%. By the third week of October, the People Power Party had climbed to 31%, ahead of the Democratic Party's 27% by 4 percentage points. The People Power Party gained 7 percentage points in just two weeks, reversing the order.
Realmeter showed a wider People Power Party advantage. Its support in Seoul rose 7.1 percentage points, from 38.6% in the second week of October to 45.7% in the third, while the Democratic Party fell 6.1 points, from 32.8% to 26.7%. The margin widened from 5.8 percentage points to 19.0. Gallup Korea had the Democratic Party holding a slim lead, but by only 1 percentage point.
In Incheon and Gyeonggi Province, surveys that still showed the Democratic Party ahead recorded narrower margins. In the National Barometer Survey, Democratic Party support fell from 40% to 35% while the People Power Party rose from 24% to 27%, halving the gap from 16 percentage points to 8. Gallup Korea showed the Democratic Party's lead shrinking from 12 percentage points to 8. Realmeter had the People Power Party ahead for two consecutive weeks.
Distrust of housing policy and concern over rising housing costs are cited as drivers of the shift in the capital region. In Gallup Korea's second-week October poll, 61% rated the government's housing policy negatively, against 19% who rated it positively. In the National Barometer Survey's third-week October poll, the share expecting jeonse, a lump-sum deposit lease, and monthly rent prices to rise over the next year reached 79% in Seoul and 65% in Incheon and Gyeonggi Province, above the national average of 59%. As the audit produced clashes over housing, the economy and security, high housing anxiety in the capital region coincided with the erosion of the Democratic Party's lead.
Core Support Among Voters in Their 40s and 50s Wavers
Polling by age group also showed signs of strain in the Democratic Party's core base. Support fell sharply in some surveys among voters in their 40s and 50s, who have leaned more heavily toward the party.
In Realmeter's third-week October poll, Democratic Party support among voters in their 40s dropped 15.2 percentage points from the first week of October. In the National Barometer Survey, support among those in their 50s fell 6 percentage points, from 49% in the fifth week of September to 43% in the third week of October.
The Democratic Party has not lost its overall advantage among voters in their 40s and 50s. But the scale of movement within what had been a firm core of support is not something the party can treat lightly, analysts said.
There are signs that progressive voters leaving the Democratic Party may be turning to the Rebuilding Korea Party, which belongs to the same camp. In Realmeter's third-week October poll, Democratic Party support among progressives fell 13.2 percentage points, from 73.5% in the first week of October to 60.3%. The Rebuilding Korea Party's overall support, meanwhile, rose from 4.0% in the final September survey, taken before the audit, to 6.9% in the third week of October, about a 1.7-fold increase in three weeks.
Other recent polls show the same trend. In a Media Tomato survey released on the 22nd, the Rebuilding Korea Party drew 9.0%. Its support among progressives rose 7.0 percentage points, from 10.8% to 17.8%, and reached 16.3% among voters in their 40s. While the People Power Party has gained from the Democratic Party's decline during the audit, the Rebuilding Korea Party's presence has grown within the progressive camp.
The shift coincides with a period of visible friction between the Democratic Party and the Rebuilding Korea Party over issues including the restructuring of investigative powers. Though both belong to the progressive camp, they have voiced differing positions on the direction and pace of prosecution reform and on the appointment of Kim Ji-yong as the first head of the Serious Crimes Investigation Agency, which may have prompted some supporters to change their choices.
The Realmeter party support surveys for the first through third weeks of October were conducted on the 1st and 2nd (1,009 respondents), the 7th and 8th (1,004) and the 15th and 16th (1,005) of this month among voters aged 18 and over nationwide. All were conducted entirely by automated response system on mobile phones, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
The National Barometer Survey polls for the fifth week of September and the third week of October were conducted from the 28th to the 30th of last month and from the 12th to the 14th of this month, respectively, among 1,000 men and women aged 18 and over nationwide. Both used telephone interviews based on virtual mobile numbers provided by the three mobile carriers, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
The Gallup Korea polls for the second and third weeks of October were conducted from the 6th to the 8th (1,000 respondents) and from the 13th to the 15th (1,003) of this month among men and women aged 18 and over nationwide. Both used computer-assisted telephone interviews with randomly drawn virtual mobile numbers from the three carriers, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
The Media Tomato poll was conducted on the 19th and 20th of this month among 1,033 men and women aged 18 and over nationwide. It was conducted entirely by automated response system on mobile phones, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Further details are available on the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.