Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili prediction, odds, pick for UFC 333 appeared first on ClutchPoints. Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev continues on the main card with a fight between Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili for the bantamweight championship. Check out our UFC 333 odds series for our Yan-Dvalishvili prediction and pick.
Petr Yan (20-5) captured the bantamweight championship by defeating Merab Dvalishvili via unanimous decision in their December 2025 rematch. He is riding a three-fight winning streak, including victories over Deiveson Figueiredo and Marcus McGhee, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Merab Dvalishvili.
Merab Dvalishvili (21-5) lost his bantamweight title to Petr Yan via unanimous decision in December 2025, snapping an impressive streak. Prior to that setback, he defended the belt three times in 2025, including a win over Cory Sandhagen, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Petr Yan.
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)
UFC 333 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings
UFC 333 Odds: Petr Yan-Merab Dvalishvili Odds
Petr Yan: -135
Merab Dvalishvili: +114
Over 4.5 rounds: -330
Under 4.5 rounds: +240
Why Petr Yan Will Win
Petr Yan proved in their second meeting that when healthy and properly prepared, his technical striking and takedown defense can completely neutralize Merab Dvalishvili. Fighting behind a tight high guard, the champion excels at reading rhythms and punishing aggressive entries with crisp, compact combinations.
The key adjustment in their rematch was his relentless commitment to body work, using punishing liver kicks and knees to sap the challenger’s legendary cardio. When Dvalishvili is forced to absorb heavy shots to the midsection on every entry, his chain-wrestling volume drops significantly over twenty-five minutes.
Furthermore, Yan possesses underrated defensive wrestling, utilizing strong underhooks, whizzers, and trips of his own to turn clinch exchanges in his favor. Rather than backing straight up into the fence, he pivots off the centerline and forces the challenger to reset in open space.
With twenty-five minutes to operate and complete confidence from his dominant December triumph, Yan has the blueprint to dismantle the former titleholder again. He will stuff the early blitzes, land the far cleaner damaging blows, and retain his belt on the scorecards.
Why Merab Dvalishvili Will Win
Merab Dvalishvili enters this championship trilogy fully refreshed after an grueling 2025 campaign where he attempted four title defenses in a single calendar year. Without the cumulative wear and tear of constant training camps, his unmatched cardiovascular engine will be back at peak capacity.
In their first encounter, Dvalishvili set a promotional record with forty-nine takedown attempts, proving that sheer volume can freeze Petr Yan’s offensive output. By constantly feinting level changes and chaining together ankle picks and double legs, he prevents the champion from ever planting his feet to throw power combinations.
Even when his takedowns do not result in extended ground control, the constant clinch battles and mat returns force Yan into a purely defensive shell. Dvalishvili can also mix in high-volume, awkward striking flurries to obscure his entries and avoid walking directly into counter knees and body kicks.
If the challenger fights with disciplined cage-cutting and avoids extended kickboxing exchanges at mid-range, his pace remains a nightmare for anyone at 135 pounds. Dvalishvili will overwhelm Yan with activity, win the territorial battle along the fence, and reclaim his title via decision.
Final Petr Yan-Merab Dvalishvili Prediction & Pick
This championship rubber match hinges on whether Merab Dvalishvili can replicate the suffocating pace of their first fight or if Petr Yan has permanently solved the puzzle. Expect a much sharper and fresher version of Dvalishvili than the one who stepped into the cage for his fourth fight of 2025 last December.
However, the technical adjustments Yan made in their second bout cannot be overstated. By prioritizing frame creation in the clinch and viciously targeting the liver with kicks and left hooks, Yan found a reliable way to punish the challenger’s relentless forward pressure.
At thirty-five years old, taking clean shots to the body while shooting dozens of takedowns is a grueling task against a sniper of Yan’s caliber. While Dvalishvili will make this third encounter much more competitive by banking early control time, Yan’s superior damage output will take over after the midpoint.
Yan will defend the crucial takedowns late, batter the body, and take a unanimous decision.
Final Petr Yan-Merab Dvalishvili Prediction & Pick: Petr Yan (-135), OVER 4.5 Rounds (-330)
Related: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev prediction, odds, pick for UFC 333
Related: Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov prediction, odds, pick for UFC 333