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The Brewers’ stunning 3-0 stranglehold on the Dodgers in the NLCS is the epitome of there being no guarantees in sports.
Milwaukee has several feats in front of them when they take the field for Game 4 on Thursday evening.
Firstly, the Brewers can slay the Los Angeles beast that has won back-to-back titles and outspends them by $193.1 million on their roster. Beyond that, they can end a 44-year World Series drought and become the first club in history to sweep an opponent the following year after getting swept by that same team.
Brewers vs. Dodgers Game 4 prediction, best bet
Narratives aside, Milwaukee has simply been the better team in all facets.
Their plate discipline has worn down the Dodgers’ all-world pitching staff by forcing pitchers into prolonged at-bats and pouncing on mistakes. The Brewers have drawn 13 walks in this series.
For all the power hitting the Dodgers deploy, the Brewers own a staggering .458-to-.187 advantage in slugging percentage.
Brewers manager Pat Murphy has masterfully mixed and matched his pitching staff, and it’s helped produce a postseason-best 1.74 ERA.
This is a team built on role players, and their collective execution has far outweighed financial might and market size.
In order to advance, the Brewers will have to solve Tyler Glasnow, who owns a 1.73 ERA across 26 career postseason innings and has helped the Dodgers go 7-0 in games he’s pitched. Fortunately, for Milwaukee, command was a problem in the NLDS, having walked five Braves hitters.
Glasnow’s effectiveness has waned since his Aug. 25 return from a three-and-a-half-month absence due to back spasms. He’s managed a 4.15 ERA across 39 innings since Aug. 25, with his Stuff+ dipping to 98, per FanGraphs.
The Brewers will counter with rookie left-hander Shane Drohan, who hasn’t pitched since Sept. 27, before potentially turning to former Dodger Dustin May for bulk innings.
While it’s hardly an intimidating arrangement on paper, the bullpen has allowed just one earned run over 28 ⅔ innings.
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The Dodgers would need to crack that with a lineup that has batted .165 with a .187 slugging percentage in the series. And, oh yeah, they’re sticking with Shohei Ohtani, whose perseverance through injuries has made for a .182 average through seven postseason games and no home runs since Aug. 18.
Oddsmakers expect a response from the Dodgers, tagging the Brewers at +130 to win. Follow the evidence and take them to complete the sweep and cash another underdog ticket.
THE PLAY: Brewers (+135, Caesars)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.