Ball State football returns to Muncie this week for its annual homecoming game after a two-game road stretch.
Ball State (2-5, 1-2 MAC) will host Sacramento State (1-6, 0-4 MAC) at Scheumann Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 24. The Cardinals and Hornets will meet for the first time ever after Sac State joined the Mid-American Conference as a football-only member this offseason.
Ball State comes off a thrilling 32-31 overtime win at Bowling Green, in which quarterback Keldric Luster threw a game-winning two-point conversion to tight end Alex Scherle, giving the Cardinals their first road win of the Mike Uremovich head-coaching era. Ball State will now look to win back-to-back games for the first time since November of 2023 with a homecoming win over Sac State.
More: Ball State QB Keldric Luster named MAC Offensive Player of the Week for second time
More: Ball State football exorcises demons with road win at Bowling Green
Here are three keys to the game, as well as a score prediction, for Ball State football vs. Sac State:
Sac State football at a glance
- Where: Sacramento, California... 2,216 miles away from Muncie, Indiana
- Conference: "Mid-American" Conference
- Head coach: Alonzo Carter (1st season)
- 2025 record: 7-5 (5-3 Big Sky) at FCS level
- 2026 record: 1-6 (0-4 MAC)
Can Ball State football avoid complacency after big win?
After a 1-5 start to the season, Ball State needed last week's win badly to keep things from spiraling. The thrilling fashion in which they snatched victory from the jaws of defeat also gave them an added dose of momentum and confidence. The Cardinals now get to return to Scheumann Stadium — where they are 5-2 under Uremovich — and try to get a winning streak going in front of a homecoming crowd.
On the other side of this week's matchup is a flat-out bad Sac State team. There's no sugarcoating the fact that the Hornets' first season at the FBS level has been miserable — they are averaging just 8.8 games against FBS competition and sit dead last in the MAC in both scoring offense (10 points per game) and scoring defense (37.3 points allowed per game) during conference play.
For the first time in five seasons, Ball State finds itself in the unfamiliar position of heavy favorite. The last thing the Cardinals want to do is get over-confident and play down to their opponent.
"It's human nature when you win that you just think everything's okay," Uremovich said. "It's why businesses that become really successful ultimately fail because they forgot what got them there and stop looking at all the little details. We approached Sunday the same way as however many games we lost in a row before that. When you win a game, it's human nature to not look at the negatives, and you have to."
Can Keldric Luster and Ball State's offense stay hot?
Luster has looked increasingly comfortable as the signal caller for Ball State, and he put together a dynamic dual-threat performance against Bowling Green with 195 passing yards, 125 rushing yards and two total touchdowns. Outside of a costly fumble, which he immediately made up for in crunch time, Luster was excellent in the win and was recognized as the MAC Offensive Player of the Week for his efforts.
Luster isn't the only piece of the offense that is clicking. TJ Horton has returned to form after battling an injury that limited him at the start of conference play and had a strong day against Bowling Green, averaging over five yards per carry and scoring twice. Meanwhile, it seems like a different receiver serves as the primary target each week — Jabari Smith at Northwestern, Donovan Hamilton vs. Toledo, then CJ Nelson at Bowling Green — which is indicative of a deep and well-rounded stable of playmakers.
Sac State's defense does present its challenges, though, especially for those receivers. 6-foot-4 cornerback Dionte Thornton was called "probably the best corner in the conference" by Uremovich, while senior safety Boogsie Silvera is another one of the Hornets' top defenders. While they haven't been good statistically, the Hornets are a physical unit that could give Ball State some trouble if the Cardinals fail to execute properly.
Will Ball State defense show continued improvement?
After a sluggish start to the season, Ball State's defense finally showed signs of life at Bowling Green. The Cardinals forced the Falcons to punt on each of their first three drives, they sacked quarterback Jay Kastantin four times after recording zero sacks in their first two MAC games, and they came up with their first interception in MAC play with a crucial redzone pick by Will Yates. They did still get exposed in some moments — namely a 77-yard touchdown given up on a screen pass — but overall, they played their most complete game of the season.
Sac State provides this unit with a good opportunity to stay hot. The Hornets are the only MAC team averaging less than 300 yards per game in MAC play — in fact, they aren't even averaging 270. They have also allowed a whopping 12 sacks in four MAC games, and quarterback Jackson Sharman is tied for second in the conference with six interceptions on the year. Sac State also ranks dead last nationwide in explosive play rate and 121st nationwide on third downs, two areas where the Cardinals defense has been vulnerable.
"I feel like every week we've gotten better," linebacker Gavin Forsha said. "Toledo really helped, and then Northwestern was a challenge, but I felt like we did pretty well in some areas. Last week, I felt like we put it all together for the first time in a full game, and I hope to do it every game now."
Ball State football vs Sac State score prediction
Ball State 42, Sac State 20: Ball State gives the homecoming crowd something to cheer about with a convincing win over the MAC's newest football team. Sac State has struggled hard in conference play this season but manages to score some late points against a still-vulnerable defense. Meanwhile, Luster and Co. stay in their groove offensively and lead the Cardinals to a win in the internet's favorite matchup of the week, the somewhat crudely nicknamed "Ball-Sac Bowl."
Contact Cade Hampton via email at cbhampton@usatodayco.com or on X, formerly known as Twitter, @CadeHamp10.
This article originally appeared on Muncie Star Press: Ball State football vs Sac State scouting report, score prediction