The NBA MVP picture has been largely dominated by two stars over the last few seasons: Nikola Jokić of the Nuggets and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Thunder. The pair account for five of the last six MVP awards, with Joel Embiid’s 2023 victory standing out as the one interruption to their shared dominance in this field. SGA and Jokić once again figure to be favorites in this year’s race—but will face fiercer competition than they’re used to.
The 2026–27 season is ripe for multiple new MVP candidates to burst onto the scene. There’s more high-end talent scattered around the league than ever. More than that, though, history points to a winner outside of OKC and Denver.
Gilgeous-Alexander has won two straight MVPs, but only three players in the history of the NBA have won three consecutive MVP trophies. Similarly, Jokić is looking to join rare company by earning a fourth MVP and would be the sixth star in league history to do so. It is incredibly difficult to accomplish either feat, which makes this year’s race feel a bit more open.
Let’s break down the four superstars who possess the right combination of talent, situation and narrative to start the season as presumptive favorites—as well as the sleepers who could wind up making a strong case once the games get underway.
NBA MVP race 2026–27: Who are the favorites?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
Naturally we begin with the reigning MVP. Gilgeous-Alexander earned his second straight award by ranking second in the league with 31.1 points per game as the leading man for the Thunder, who won an NBA-best 64 games. SGA is one of the greatest scorers of the modern era with four straight seasons of averaging 30 points or more. And he’s not too bad on the other end, either; the same quick hands that allow him to loft in layups from every angle also lurk in opposing passing lanes throughout his minutes on the floor.
The biggest factor working against Gilgeous-Alexander as the new campaign gets underway is the simple fact that three straight MVP wins is an exceptionally rare occurrence. Plus, Jalen Williams figures to be healthier this season and will take some of the offensive load off his star teammate’s shoulders. But overall, Gilgeous-Alexander in many ways is the picture-perfect MVP candidate. He is ludicrously productive and his team racks up wins like nobody’s business as a well-respected title contender. That figures to be the case again this year.
Nikola Jokić, Nuggets
Jokić’s relentless greatness will have him in the MVP picture every year until he retires, assuming good health. Even that last factor didn’t slow him down last season. The Denver superstar missed a career-high 17 games and still averaged a triple-double over the course of 65 contests to finish second in MVP voting, posting 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.7 assists per night. The last two numbers led the NBA, making Jokić the first center ever to lead the league in both rebounds and assists per game. Simply put, he is a historically great talent the likes of which we’ll probably never see again from a beefy seven-foot big man. With three MVP notches on his belt already, Jokić has been recognized as such.
This year figures to be another great one from the Serbian superstar yet he may fall short in the “team success” category of MVP voting. Jokić alone is good enough to ensure the Nuggets remain in championship contention but the roster around him has gradually gotten worse over the last few seasons. Denver isn’t going to be a bad team by any means. It’s just that MVP candidates rarely come from a team that finishes outside the top three of its conference and the Nuggets are not guaranteed that in a tough West this season.
Victor Wembanyama, Spurs
The up-and-coming Wembanyama is a very popular MVP pick this season—and for good reason. He finished third last year on the back of his breakout campaign, scoring 25.0 points to go with 11.5 rebounds and a whopping 3.1 blocks per game as his Spurs won 60 games. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year is the rare MVP candidate who can dominate both ends of the court, visibly warping the flow of the game to his own preferences over the course of 48 minutes. At only 22 years old entering the coming season, there’s reason to believe Wembanyama will improve and put forth an even better campaign.
It doesn’t feel too soon to crown the young star, but injuries loom as the biggest threat to his MVP candidacy. Wembanyama just barely hit the minimum 65 game-mark to qualify for end-of-season awards last year and a blood clot issue kept him to 46 games the year prior. If the Spurs star remains healthy, the talented roster around him performs as expected and he continues to fine-tune his game, however... He’ll make an extremely strong case to win what could be the first of several MVP trophies.
Luka Dončić, Lakers
Dončić finished top five in MVP voting last season despite missing the 65 games played mark due to an exception granted by the NBA. The situation he’s in this season with the Lakers is even more prime for MVP momentum. The Los Angeles star led the league with 33.5 points per game last year to go with 8.3 assists and 7.7 rebounds while playing with a roster not exactly optimized for his particular strengths. The front office did what they could to address that over the offseason, and in tandem with LeBron James’s departure, this is now a Luka-centric team the likes of which we saw in Dallas. The result should be another exceptional statistical campaign from the Slovenian superstar during which his impact on winning will be clear as day.
Like Wemby above, however, the 65-game minimum looms as a potentially fatal flaw to his case. Dončić only qualifed via exception last season and played 50 games the year prior. Moreover, the Lakers' roster isn’t so overwhelmingly talented that we can pencil L.A. into even a top-four finish in the West as of now. Dončić figures to be productive enough to demand attention no matter what but right now faces an uphill battle to match his main competition in the other areas of MVP voting.
Sleepers to keep an eye on
The above four stars will begin the season at the front of the pack for MVP as four of the most dominant players in the NBA, hard stop, who also fit a standard profile for the award. But the MVP race always includes a few surprises. Below are the names who are worth keeping an eye on as the season goes along, names with enough talent to force their way into the conversation if things break a certain way.
Cade Cunningham, Pistons
Cunningham is a modern offensive engine who led all guards with 38 double-doubles last season in Detroit, at large averaging 23.9 points and 9.9 assists per night. He’s a great defender, too, strong as a bull with the quickness to hang with even the most agile of opponents. The Pistons are projected by most to finish below their 60-win mark from last season but the front office rejiggered the roster to give Cunningham more space to breathe offensively, which could even further unlock him as a scorer. If Detroit proves capable of hanging with the top dogs in a much-improved East, Cunningham will be a main reason why and it would be hard to keep him out of the MVP conversation at that point.
Jayson Tatum, Celtics
We’ve never seen Tatum get handed the keys for an entire season like this and he may very well put on a show as a result. The superstar has always been a great scorer and rebounder but quietly made big strides as a passer that will probably lead to career-high assist numbers now that he’s Plan A, B and C in Boston. Should Tatum indeed be back to his former All-NBA self post-Achilles and enjoy an efficient, prolific season that propels the Celtics to exceeding expectations, it’s easy to see an MVP case being made.
Jalen Brunson, Knicks
Brunson and the defending champion Knicks probably won’t go pedal to the metal in the regular season, which will make it difficult for him to garner any kind of MVP momentum. But! If New York hits any sort of injury-related speedbumps along the way to the playoffs, the load will fall mostly on Brunson’s shoulders to compensate. He is obviously capable of filling it up as a scorer to an MVP level; it will just require a particular circumstance for him to feel like he has to do so for an entire season.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Heat
Antetokounmpo’s first season outside Milwaukee will undoubtedly come with the same sort of ridiculous stat lines we’ve become accustomed to seeing out of the Greek Freak. The Heat do not yet have an ideal roster for his particular talents, though, and the adjustment period for playing alongside another paint-bound scorer in Bam Adebayo may be tricky. If Antetokounmpo still rampages around and racks up points as well as wins despite all that, he’ll earn consideration—he went nine straight years finishing top 10 in MVP voting before last year’s injury-riddled campaign.
Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves
Edwards could be in store for a remarkable scoring season now that the Timberwolves have LaMelo Ball to worry about things like “passing the ball.” If so, Edwards figures to fit a familiar profile of MVP candidate, one that can put up some wild stats for a team that will ask everything of him and then some to stay afloat in the playoff race. Right now it’s tough to envision Minnesota winning enough games for the face of the franchise to make a serious case, but a 30-point-per-game season would help ease those concerns.
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